April 2013, II

North-Korea vs South-Korea; a potential war

War in the Koreas

The war in Korea, 1950-1953 has formally never ended, there was only an armistice, restoring a status quo. The tensions between the two have remained and at times intensified.

Both countries have since developed in opposite directions, communist vs capitalist. The north stayed poor and relatively underdeveloped and the south progressed to wealth and one of the leading economies in the world.

This making North-Korea one of the few remaining true communist countries in the world. This autocratic regime, a police state, survived by closing the country to virtually all foreign influences and living of contributions and all kind of shady businesses, including the trade in nuclear technology.

This all cumulated in a policy of developing a nuclear device, or something close to it. This aspiring nuclear weapons power used its knowledge to somehow blackmail the world in supporting the country (financially/economically), get some respect and of course have it to defend the country against the evil world.

The assumption of power by the new North-Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, changed the rule of the game as they felt more threatened, lost respect, the economy was in ever worser shape and above all Kim needed to establish his power.

Conflict in 2013

North Korea used all options to increase the tensions between the two countries, everything was used to keep the fire burning. The final escalation to war seems to be around the next corner. The nuclear program restarted, the question remains if it was ever stopped, borders closed, missile launch commands given and even foreign diplomats were told that their safety couldn’t be guaranteed anymore.

The military training operations between South Korea and the USA have been used as an excuse to make new threats but they’re probably sincerely felt by the north as a danger to their existence. More than ones, military training, maneuvers, were used as a pre-cursor to an attack.

It remains however very unlikely that North-Korea will start a conflict, the odds are simply against them. Military they’ve greater numbers but the level of technology, the quality of the forces and the logistical capabilities of South-Korea vastly outnumber everything the north has to offer. Only a possible functioning and deliverable nuclear device could change the odds somewhat in the favor of the north.

Weapons of mass destruction, nuclear devices, are however unuseable in military conflict as there always would be an equal devastating counter-attack after the first use of nuclear weapons. MAD still works even if one of the parties in conflict seems to be irrational. Irrationality will end if there is a chance to survive, remain in power. If they can survive, MAD will work. Nuclear weapons are only good for defence, keep the enemy at bay.

North-Korea only kind of war play could be a very short conventional attack on the south by the massive use of artillery and missile barrages, commando style attacks on strategic objectives and a possible use of a man created natural disaster. In North-Korea close to the border with South-Korea there is a big dam used to genrate electricity, if that would be destoyed, the flood would cause massive damage. The economical cost would however equally worse for the north.

A short attack on the south were after the UN and the world community would quickly intervene to end the fighting could be beneficial to the north. If the north would be given financial/economical support to stop the fighting.

The uncertain factor would be South-Korea who are fed up with the northern policy of black mail. The south could use the opportunity to eliminate the military threat out of the north and create a kind of security zone by destroying most military equipment in a 30 to 50 kilometer zone. That kind of military loss could mean the end of the regime in North-Korea, or at least the rule of Kim Jong Il.

It can be concluded that the chance of survival of the Kim Jong Il regime is more likely if they don’t start a conflict. A conflict, war, could be the end of the regime and than they could become irrational but they would have to make the first move and strike at the south but again considering the situation of the military in North-Korea it is unlikely if not impossible to start an attack against the south.

Militarily they’re essentialy incapable to strike at the south. The equipment is out of date, badly maintained, the ammunition is in equally worse shape and the level of training is bad. The armed forces have been used for internal security roles, had to take care of growing their own food and help in civil affairs and natural disasters. And finally the supply and payment of the troops, with the exception of the special forces, have become worser so beside the capability even the loyality of the mass of the forces can be questioned.

A war never can be excluded but in the current situation very unlikely.