August 1999

German defence revisited

German’s road to change

Germany has expercienced a number of difficulties in recent times. The reunification, the higher taxes, the lagging economy in Germany and in east Germany in particular and the economic crisis in Asia, Russia and to a lesser extent South America have created a set of economical problems which have not find a solution.

The CDU-CSU government of the long served Bundeskanzler dr. Helmut Kohl has, because of the economic problems, been elected out of office by the social-democratic – greens coalition of Gerhard Schroder. The economic policy and proposals of the opponents were not really different but the new elan of the social-democrats proved to be more convincing than the CDU-CSU appearance.

The policy which should bring some improvement to the economy is about stimulating the economy by an attempt to support and encourage new industries and to make the socal-economic fabric more flexible. Both are however to little and to late. And by limiting government expenses by cutting costs by several departments. The already badly hit defence budget, which have already been cut in half since the reunification, should deliver another 3 billion DM in cuts.

German’s defence posture is already undermined and hardly prepared to do its job. The question is now are further cuts possible without any change, qualitative and quantitative, of the defence forces structure? And is it possible with lesser resources to fulfil the commitments which have been accepted by the government like the contributions towards SFOR and KFOR beside the protection of Germany?

Can and/or should the German defence forces go on in the same structure with the same tasks at an even lower defence budget or are dramatic changes necessary to meet the demands of the government and the society

Security in and defence tasks of Germany

The security perception of Germany has experienced a large change to the good as the cold war had ended and a wave of democracy ran through the world. This feeling of optimism, peace and progress did not last for very long as reality returned to the heads of state and later to the people that there are still some not so pleasant people around.

The geo-strategic situation improved as the political-ideological contradiction between the east and the west disappeared. The threat out of the former Soviet Union disappeared and subsequently it became even less dangerous because of the economic problems in Russia and in most of the other new countries of the former Soviet Union.

Instead of the Soviet menace many new nationalistic-religious problems emerged which did and do not pose a same kind of threat. One large and more or less predictable danger was replaced by several small ones which are unpredictable and difficult to control but none of them is posing a direct threat to the security of Germany or for Europe for that matter. The new countries in the territory of the former Soviet Union, the Balkan, the Middle East and muslim fundamentalistic organisations can not become a dangerous threat in the coming decade. They themselves could be a threat to eachother but very unlikely outside their area. They simply will not have the abilities on the short term to become dangerous.

The threat is indirect as refugees, economic problems and an ethical component could eventually undermine European society. The defence forces of Germany and the other European, NATO, countries do not face a conventional threat to their security. The threat will be indirect with possibly some terrorist activities but even these will be less likely as most terrorist organisations will loose their state sponsors.

There will be also no direct threats to Germany. The German defence forces will however be stretched to the limit with the participation in UN peace keeping and enforcing operations and occasional relief operations.

The peace keeping and enforcing operations will be most likely limited to Europe and possibly, if the Israeli government would issue the request, a peace keeping operation on the Golan heights. All other UN operations around the world which need the support of the defence forces will not receive support from Germany and essentially from the whole of Europe. As the majority of European nations consider Africa and Asia the responsibility of the regional organisations like the OAU and ARF. There are exceptions possible in some situations but the current trend is focused on Europe.

The relief operations after for example a natural disaster will on the other hand continue to receive support from Germany, e.g. the transport capability from the defence forces.

Concluding, Europe have become, with the exception of the Balkans and especially the territory of former Yugoslavia, saver then ever before. The further integration of Europe and continued active involvement in organisations like the NATO will keep the situation stable for at least the next decade. As Europe’s situation is improving all possible opponents, for example an emerged Russia or a possible alliance of Islam fundamentalistic north African states, will in this same time span not be able to become a major threat to Europe.

A new defence structure

The German defence forces are because of the consecutive cuts in the defence budget and the increased demands to participate in UN peace keeping / enforcing operations like SFOR and KFOR stretched to the limits of their abilities. The budget cuts and the changed security environment demands a change of the forces structure. The absence of a real threat gives Germany the opportunity to change this structure.

The German political leadership, the government and the opposition, is fully aware of the problems which have hit the defence ministry. It is necessary to make some decisions but the former and current government prefer to wait and hope time will bring a solution. The Wehrstrukturkommission, defence structure committee, which have been initiated by the defence minister Rudolf Scharping is a same kind of delay mechanism. The committee should look at the current situation and put forward some new ideas, proposals, to solve the crisis like situation. The committee will use a lot of time and at the end will, most likely, come with some half hearthed proposals aimed at maintaining the status quo.

The situation demands some decisions of the government. The abilities of the defence forces will be downgraded if the current trend of cuts and increased reponsibilities continue. Even if further cuts could be avoided it would be extremely difficult to upheld the fighting power of the German armed forces at the current level as a 5 to 10 percent increase of the defence expenditures wil be necessary to maintain a modern updated armed forces.

A rethinking of the position and the structure of the armed forces in Germany is necessary. The current structure of conscription, main defence forces and crisis reaction forces will not be able to live up the expectancies and demands of the government and society. The conscription system will get unfair if the number of forces are decreased and conscripts can not be forced to serve abroad on UN missions. And the division in main and crisis reaction forces will create a two class army with state of the art equipment and motivated soldiers in the crisis reaction forces and outdated equipment and more or less dissatisfied people in the main defence forces.

It will not be enough to simply scrap some barracks, brigades, units, wings, squadrons or ships or eliminate some tasks to achieve a reduction and meet the financial targets set out by the finance ministry. This will degrade and even further overstretch the armed forces.

A new and better approach is necessary to keep the forces up to date and capable of fulfilling the tasks they are expected to do in the current defence budget or at a slightly lower budget.

An option for the defence forces

The new approach is based on an armed forces structure which is modern and capable to the defend the interests of the country and participate in several UN operations. This demands up to date equipment, enough forces, men, to do the job and additional resources, equipment and reserves, to participate on every eventuality.

The German armed forces should be based on a professional base of officers, NCO’s and soldiers on medium to long term contracts. In this structure the conscription will be abolished and replaced by a system of reserve forces and possibly a kind of militia structure.

The conscription system is a somewhat outdated idea with the goal to have a large force and in German’s case to involve the society in the armed forces. The reduction in manpower and the shortening of the time served as a conscript will make the number who actually fulfil their conscription lower and more unfair as the number who do not need to serve will get higher. Only on the medium to long term this inequality will change as the demographics lowers the number of conscription eligible to a fairer number.

The number of conscious objectors have been growing in the last decade and this made the equation between the people who have to do their service and the ones who were excluded artificially lower and more bearable and it delivered a large pool for the civil service, Zivil Dienst, who do and did their service instead of being in the armed forces supporting the Red Cross, homes for the elderly, hospitals and so on.

If the conscription would be abolished the civil service will be the most hit as the people working here will be difficult if not impossible to replace. To make up this shortfall the militia system, as we propose, could be the savour of this much needed service for the society and even maintain the so much appreciated close relations with the society.

The new armed forces would also consist of a core of full time professional military, an active reserve force and a none to little active militia force. The armed forces could remain in this structure up to date in equipment, have enough resources to do their job properly and the defence budget could remain on the current level or even accept a small cut and maintain their fighting power which is impossible in the current situation.

The professional armed forces

The military core of the armed forces would consist out of a professional force who are responsible for the protection of Germany’s interests and are the first to call for. They will be the specialists, well armed, trained and all on the same advanced level. Prepared for conventional warfare, large scale multi-national operations, emergencies and for UN operations.

Beside the normal military functions a professional armed forces would have to do, a small part of the professional forces will be spread around the country in trainingcentres to train the militia force. The courses will be held in cycles of about three months in daytime courses with a couple of exercises to educate the militia force the basics of the military trade, social values and to integrate the armed forces in the society.

You would need a professional force of around 260.000 men to fulfil the same tasks as is now being done by the Bundeswehr. Around 160.000 for the army, 70.000-72.000 for the air force and 28.000 for the navy.

With this number of personnel the armed forces could fulfil all the tasks they do now. Especially the air force and navy will benefit from this change as their capabilities will improve through the professionalisation. The reserve forces of the air force and navy will be mainly support and security units beside a small number of civilian pilots, technicians and shipcrew.

The army will need to change the most. The current structure of forces will remain more or less the same and they will be able to continue to participate in the current multi-national units /corps system. The only difference will be that one brigade of an armoured or mechanized division, except some cadre forces, and some support units will be manned by reserve forces. The airborne division will become an all professional unit. The use of reservists in combat units will have a minimal effect on the fighting capabilities of the army as an active reserve force can be brought up to standard within a month. And as the deployment of heavy army units will take longer as airborne units, naval forces and especially air force units and the warning times have increased the use of reserve forces will not degrade the army.

The reserve forces

The professional armed forces would need to be supported by an active reserve force. Where ever possible civilian skills should be used in a reserve force to even further increase the professionalability of the reserve forces. The reserve forces should support the professional forces.

The reserve forces will consist out of former professional soldiers, NCO’s and officers and well motivated and interested civilians who like to serve the country. Beside the interest of being a part time military man or woman a small financial compensation an proper insurance arrangements should be available.

The reserve forces would get an additional training, only if they have not been part of the professional forces, of about three months beside the ground skills learned in the militia training and the reservists will be educated and trained in for example 3 evenings a month, 6 saturdays a year, 4 weekends a year and one exercise of a week in a year. With this training schedule they would be trained at an acceptable level and capable to operate advanced equipment and in large scale operations in and with support of the professional forces.

As an additional attraction and to keep the reserve forces sharp they could be available for UN operations and emergencies. Every four years they could be send on a UN operation for three to six months. This would be benificial to their military development as it is an very good opportunity to train and learn operating in multi-national environment under real circumstances. And it should be possible without to much problems for their normal civilian lives.

The reserve forces should total about 90.000 men; 60.000 for the army, 25.000 for the air force and 5.000 for the navy. With this number of additional forces the armed forces are capable to fulfil all missions demanded. As there will be at least 5.600 reservist available for UN operations at all times without putting to much pressure on the reserve force. A combined force of professsionals and reservists will allow Germany the use its capabilities and resources most advantageous in general and in UN operations.

The militia

A militia force is offering the best way, even before a conscription army, in creating an armed forces close to the society. The militia is the beginning of all defence, especially in the defence of the nation, as they will form the back bone and the greatest possible nuisance to any invader. Even if the conventional value of a militia force is limited the attritional and psychological value is even larger. As nearly all able people in the society will be part of a militia army and therefore more likely to be committed to the country and more averse against an invasion.

The militia force, or kind of as the education and training course will be minimized to the absolute minimum, will also allow the possibility to save the Zivildienst, civil service. As all able young people, male and female, will join the militia after high school / college for three months there will be a very large number people of which a large number do not like to do their military service they have the alternative to join the Zivildienst.

An additional advantage of the militia system will be that there will be the need for a large number of trainingcentres. These will be spread geographically around the country so that the militia training can be a daytime course and no large barrack complexes are necessary. There only will be a need for a number of classrooms, a gunrange and a small exercise area. All states of Germany will be incooperated in this plan so a fair sharing of work is possible. Finally those small complexes will be needed by the military for 6 to 9 months of the year the remaining 3 to 6 months can be used to give additional education, business focussed, to the unemployed and young people who do not go to any further education and do not have a Lehrstelle, jobtraining place, at a company.

The education of the militia force will be done by the professional armed forces. Hereby they can remain in contact with the society and attract people to become a professional soldier or to become a member of the reserve forces.

The militia training course should be as short as possible but long enough to learn the basic skills of a soldier. Beside the formal education about the military, organisation, hierarchy, weapon handling, small unit tactics, etc. attention should be paid to citizenship, democracy, social values and mutual respect. The militia course should not be about to much drill and learning by gaming should be very important.

In about three months it should be possible to learn the above mentioned basic skills. They will not be able to operate advanced weapon systems but the most common infantry weapons, light mortars, light AT missiles and Stinger type AA missiles should be achieveable within this time span. Large scale combined arms operations will also not be possible to learn and to train but security, harassing and small unit operations and some cooperation with armoured forces are possible. The same will be true in support operations, it will not be possible to operate solely in large and multi-national groups but they will be able to support small units and in support beside other professional and reserve forces in larger commands if the situation is critical.

After the militia training people will know more about the military, the necessity of defence and the country. If they are interested they can join the reserve forces or another option would be an active militia role with weekly or monthly education / training days to improve their skills and proficiency with the equipment they have been trained with. This will be easily attainable because of the spare time left over in the militia trainingcentres.

The professional armed forces, reserve forces, active militia and militia training model will deliver Germany and its people the best of all worlds. They will get a skilled and well prepared and armed defence force within the current budget. A large, good trained and motivated reserve force which can be used when deemed necessary. A large pool of active militia members and an even larger pool of people which have had some military training which can be quickly recalled in a national emergency. And most important of all it leaves the people with choices, like it should be in a democracy. Join the militia training or support your country in the Zivildienst. Have the opportunity to learn something in the militia about the military and about a democratic country and its important values. And after the militia service or better training you are free to go on with your private live or stay somehow involved in the security of your country. And all this in three to four months which is not a long time and will certainly not have a large impact on somebody’s live. Especially because the training will be in everybody’s neighbourhood and at normal working hours so no long travelling and a long time from home. It is more, and should be, like a kind of adventure holiday where you can learn something.