March 2000

Notes on the future of warfare

The nature of warfare will experience some rather large changes on the short term. The changes are brought forward by a different threat perception and by the changes in capabilities, technical capabilities, of the armed forces. The nature of warfare has experienced many changes in history. The invention and introduction of new capabilities like the stirrup, crossbow, black powder, machine gun, the main battle tank, the aeroplane and weapons of mass destruction forced the armed forces of the world to change their battle order and doctrine.

The end of the cold war, the end of the superpower confrontation, demanded an assessment of the threat. Instead of one large, known and predictable enemy many small, unknown and unpredictable enemies, or better potential enemies became the order of the day. A new or different kind of threat had emerged which demanded a different kind of force and application of force.

At the same time as the threat changed new capabilities were and are to be introduced. What the Americans call the Revolution in Military Affairs, RMA, would change the composition and the use of forces. Beside ever more powerful, lethal and precise weapon systems, improvements in Command, Control, Communication, Computers and Information, C4I, especially the improvements in the Information factor, will radically improve the abilities of the armed forces. And information, as we will see later, is the all over-whelming factor in modern armed forces in which nearly every system is based on or connected to some kind of information system

A new era of warfare will be introduced in the new millennium. The first developments, steps, have already been made. The introduction of the RMA systems and doctrine will take place in the coming decade. At the end of the first decade the leading armies of the world will have incorperated RMA. Many will have partly introduced the concept of RMA and even more will not, or just a little, have applied RMA.

So the high-tech forces of the future will continue to meet less capable but nevertheless very dangerous opponents. Opponents who will use technical updates to improve the inferiority of equipment and geography, human rights and diplomacy to weaken the other side. Especially those medium scale rogue regimes with relatively large armed forces will remain a continuing threat. Partly modern, up to date, and mostly outdated but nevertheless deadly. Those armed forces tend to be masters in concealment, attrition warfare, defensive operations and regrettably the inhumane suppression of the population. Those rogue nations use their advantages to the utmost and only understand one language, direct and overwhelming force. They have to be dealt with through the use of cold war weapon systems. The concept of RMA has only a limited usefulness in these situations. As it will make warfare faster and more deadly while avoiding civilian casualties but the leadership of the rogue nation will still be able to avoid the worsest consequences of the conflict. They will be more endangered by better intelligence and weapons but they can still survive.

RMA will become ever more effective and efficient but it is not a solution to all problems. The RMA will make the armed forces more flexible and somehow more balanced to better fulfil the roles/orders given to them. The RMA will lead to some changes like it will diminish the role, position, of the MBT on the battlefield. The MBT will not disappear as in some circumstances the MBT will remain an important tool to persuade, defeat, the opponent.

The political environment, the demand side

The end of the cold war meant the end of the large heavy armoured divisions with 250 + MBTs. The heavy divisions were developed in anticipation of the Soviet threat of several thousand MBTs rolling over the German plains with the aim of destroying the bad western economical-political system. To counter this threat the west needed heavy formations able to stop the Soviet armoured collumns.

The end of the Soviet empire and war machine meant the end of the large heavy formations. This became especially visible as after the cold war in many other parts of the world conflicts emerged which demanded the attention of the United Nations and/or the west/NATO. Many of the conflict areas demanded a rapid deployment of forces and the geography more than ones forbade the deployment of large heavy formations. Both of the above mentioned conditions, time and geography, excluded the large heavy cold war division and stated the need for lighter rapid deployable formations.

The need and existence of heavy formations is not totally excluded but the scale and the usage will be smaller. The light to medium easy to deploy, flexible, formation is in greater demand and more usefull in the small scale low to medium intensity conflicts abundantly around in the world.

The heavy armour was and will only be necessary in conflicts like the second Gulf War, in any future Iraqi advanture, in the first phases of the operations like in Bosnia Herzegowina and in Yugoslavia, Kosovo and as a reserve, back up force. The deployment of heavy armoured forces demand that two conditions are fulfilled. The geography has to be more or less suitable for heavy armour and the potential enemy has to be impressive enough to justify the need for larger formations of heavy forces.

The easy to deploy light to medium forces are in the majority of other conflicts much more useful than the heavy formation. The need to be present as fast as possible, the kind of geography, e.g. jungle, mountains or build up areas, and the quality and quantity of the opponent justifies and demands the use of lighter forces. Heavy forces might be impressive but are unsuitable in these kind of conflicts.

The light to medium forces have been, are and will proof to be very useful in conflicts like in west Africa, Sierra Leone and Liberia, in central Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and Rwanda, in southern Africa, Namibia, in Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan and in the Jammu and Kashmir area, and in the majority of current and future peace keeping and peace enforcing operations of the U.N. or any other regional security organisation.

Technological developments, the supply side

The future of warfare is equally influenced by the technological development of weapon systems, or better all systems, means, needed to execute the military business. The nature of warfare will change as new and more effective and efficient systems are and will be introduced. The what in the U.S.A. is called the Revolution in Military Affairs, RMA, will greatly influence the way conflicts are solved and the military is organised. Other nations like France, Germany and the United Kingdom have equal programs to modernise the armed forces. For reasons of simplification, because of the fact that the U.S. programme is the most advanced in development and implementation and that the U.S. programme will be the measuring-staff for the other countries we will use RMA to describe the technological improvements.

The RMA is aimed to make the armed forces better prepared and able to conduct warfare. RMA is aimed at minimising casualties and maximising the impact with as little collateral damage as possible.

The RMA is centred at information warfare in its widest sense. This includes everything which has something to do with information gathering, analysis, decision making and execution. This not only includes the information as such but also the systems in the process which need and use information as such or as a system. And as all modern military equipment possess some kind of informationsystem the whole military is part of the RMA. The RMA will optimise the information process to allow a 24 hour operation tempo in every weather and should outpace every opponent.

The RMA will seek to improve the soft and hard part of all kind of information systems, electronics. RMA will for example develop and improve the abilities to attack the computers of the opponent to destroy its software and limit its fighting ability. The hardware part of the RMA is aimed at the development and improvement of sensors to improve surveillance and attack possibilities. Of communications to improve the relations from the top to the bottom and vice versa through the use of advanced communication systems which offer not only language but also data and picture exchanges. Of advance data management to improve situation awareness. Of smart/intelligent weapons, e.g. bombs and missiles, to improve targeting and the impact of the explosion. Of robotic systems to limit the casualties, to increase the knowledge of the other side and to destroy the enemy, e.g. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, UAV, which are invented to gather intelligence or even attack the enemy and other Unmanned/unattended Systems for the destruction of the opponent’s forces through intelligent mines and even fighting vehicles. The UAV is just at the beginning of its deployment. UAVs are going to be used for surveillance, attack, communication, diversion and EW/Sigint roles and span large craft like the already deployed Predator and to be deployed mini and micro UAVs which are able to move into buildings. And of stealth. The RMA will deliver stealthy, camouflaged, soldiers and other equipment to make them invisible to the enemy. Advances in photo-electronics will make it possible to blend soldiers and equipment, vehicles, into the environment. If they are armed with intelligent weapon systems they will be the perfect military system. Impossible or difficult to detect with a near to 100 percent hit probability with little to none collateral damage.

The RMA will deliver a new kind of warrior with largely improved capabilities. The new armed forces will thereby receive new equipment to meet the demands of a lighter and more mobile force. A new generation of howitsers, ammunition and wheeled armoured vehicles will deliver a much improved capability, flexible and at lower operating costs. These new vehicles and weapon systems should be able to meet all demands stemming from a different threat perception.

The defence industry is able, especially because of the increasing role of high-tech companies as prime contractors, to deliver the technologies for the RMA on schedule. The military and the industry have met eachother at a favorable time. The military had to adjust to the new threat and the industry has been developing a new family of systems which perfectly fitted to the description of the armed forces.

Conclusion

The RMA is the perfect answer to the new demands out of the armed services. The armed forces need light to medium formations which are easy to deploy all around the world. These forces should be able to fight in a medium to high intensity conflict but should also be able to conduct peace enforcing and peace keeping operations at a reasonable price. The activities conducted under and for the RMA project wants to use information, electronics, to improve the capabilities of the armed forces. The RMA is aimed to create flexible forces with enough fire power to execute the tasks of modern armed forces with lesser resources.

The first clear signs to the introduction of medium units are the plans of the US army to acquire the Mowag designed Piranha LAV III 8 * 8 wheeled vehicles in several versions to test the medium unit in real circumstances. And the advanced plans to establish several medium weight brigades/divisions based on an all wheeled vehicle family. The future US army will probably consist out of 2 light divisions, the 82nd and 101st division, 5 + medium divisions, the 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th and 24th or 25th division and some independent brigades and 3 + armoured divisions, the 1st, 2nd and 3rd armoured divisions and some independent brigades and or cavalry regiments. The actual number and which division may however change in the future.

The RMA will eventually, if the financial resources will be made available, cover all parts of the US army. At first it will deliver new light /medium units to satisfy the demands of the armed forces but the RMA will also cover the remaining heavy formations. The heavy units, smaller in quantity will remain necessary in a number of operations and as a reserve force, will also benefit from the technologies developed under the RMA project. The heavy armour will also need advanced sensors, communications, data management, intelligence, smart ammunitions and stealth to survive and more importantly remain superior on the future battlefield. At first it will be added as an update but the new high tech MBT is already on the drawing table and in the research labs. Maybe not as a 60 tonnes + vehicle but still in the 40 tonnes range. The heavy units will remain a necessity and will therefore be part of all modern armed forces.

The nature of warfare will change through the increased use of advanced systems and more mobile units. The armed forces will be more balanced with light, medium and heavy forces at its disposal to fulfil all tasks given to them. The armed forces will be able to react to every kind of emergency with the appropriate force and speed. The forces will be more easily deployable and will reach their operation area faster than ever before while offering approximately the same fire power and fighting capabilities around the clock in every possible weather. The need for a build up period will be drastically shortened and the arrived forces will be able to start hostilities very soon after. If the deployment of heavier forces should be necessary the light and medium forces will be able to fend off nearly every possible attack and start offensive operations as soon as the heavy forces have arrived on the scene. The new force will be able to move faster than before and will be able to outflank the enemy with the new medium wheeled units without giving up fire power and the resilience of the former dominating all heavy formations. The balanced, 2-5-3 light-medium-heavy, army will be more flexible and stronger and consequently better able to overcome every kind of resistance.

The implementation of the RMA will deliver the US the opportunity to execute its security and foreign policy with more fervour without being to dependent on the support of allies in the area. The RMA will give the US military the means to fulfil the strategic ends.