May 1997, II

Counter the terrorist threat

Terrorism

            Terrorism, the curse of mankind. Terrorism in one of its many forms exists already for many, many years. But in the second part of the twentieth century it became a more imminent danger through the use of modern very powerfull weaponsystems and the shift to civilian targets.

Terrorism and resistance could be seen as the same side of a coin, it depends on the viewpoint at which you are looking at the phenomen. But it is always aimed at the power which is in charge, legally or illegally.

But the right or wrong of terrorism is not the subject we are talking about. We will talk about the means terrorists are using and how to combat them.

The terrorists armory

The weapons of the terrorist are mostly military style weapons and the home-made weapons. The category of military style weapons range from normal conventional pistols, assault rifles, machine guns and rocket launchers to anti-personell and anti-tank mines and other forms of explosives.

The home-made weapons are mostly a combination of explosives like C4 or Semtex with a makeshift fuze and timer. But also the explosive can be home-made which ofcourse mostly will result in a very powerfull but also very unstable device. It is relatively easy to construct explosive devices, a talented science student or even an average intelligent person can put them together from house, kitchen and garden equipment.

A new threat could emerge if a terrorist group is starting playing around with NBC devices or the possibilities in the advanced technological society.

The NBC threat should not be overestimated because there could be difficulties in building them and especially in using them. I would not say it is impossible to build a nuclear device but it is certainly difficult to create the right infra-structure and get all the necessary ingrediënts together. The construction of a biological or chemical device is much easier. The lab and the construction facilities can be build into a large house or even better a farm. The ingrediënts of a BC device are mostly obtainable in the open market. Most of the items needed are also necessary in the production of normal civilian products. The building of the weapon is not the problem, the problem is the effect of NBC weapons. The implications of the use of NBC weapons are so devastating that there is no advantage in using them. NBC weapons are only usefull as a threat not suitable to be used.

A more realistic threat to society by terrorists is the use of information technology. Most of the important parts of a modern society are controlled and steered by computers. Energy supply, airspace control, defence systems, financial markets/banks and so on. All those computers run on software and are in some way connected with each other. The introduction of a virus could easily derail a whole society. The relatively easiness to build a virus and the harmfull effects in relation with the little danger during a virus assault on the computersystems will give terrorist organisations a easy way of making a statement and to fight for their cause. This is the danger which is very present to the society.

Counter Terrorism

The elimination of terrorism is possible by trying to eliminate their causes and by good intelligence by the law-enforcement organisations. All other means to counter terrorists are only usefull in limiting the actions of terrorists but in the end not effective in stopping the terrorist threat. For example scanners for explosives and weapons. It is very usefull to have them, especially if a weapon or bomb is intercepted, but no scanner is 100 % certain and there are other ways to get the weapons there where you want them if you really want to.

The same is true for systems to counter assaults on computers. You can install anti-virus programs, build fire-walls and tunnels to eliminate unwanted programs and communication but there are always ways to get around them. It is a race between breaking the defence and building a new defence against unwanted programs.

So the most effective way to eliminate the terrorist threat is based on actions and the position of the government. All terrorist organisations are based on a perceived injustice by the government. The government should try to eliminate or minimize the causes of those groups. By doing so the terrorist organisations will loose a lot of support and they might even be persuaded to give up the armed struggle and fight instead in the parliament. This is also valid for groups who want to overturn the society. Because with every action of the government to eliminate perceived injustices the terrorist organisations will loose the support they desparately need and make them more vunerable to the actions of law enforcement.

The other defence against terrorism is good intelligence, the law-enforcement organisations have to identify all possible sources of trouble/injustices and the people which are in some way connected with those troubles.

The groups have to be watched but not suppressed because then you will loose them out of sight and they become uncontrollable. If there is a group which have turn violent which is not yet listed use the same method. Identify the causes/reasons to become violent, indentify the people with a interest in those causes and watch them and interrogate the surroundig environment. Only by applying these common “police” methods it is possible to circumvent terrorism or stop it shortly after it has surfaced by arresting and putting before a court of justice the violent group and dissolve the aims they were trying to reach.

Additional powers to the law enforcement organisations and more laws to create a false sense of security are absolutely not necessary. They will only be contraproductive.