January 1998, I

An Outlook on 1998, I

Areas of Tension and instability

The world have not become a saver place to be, in the last year. The same will be valid for 1998. There are several areas in the world where intra-state and interstate conflicts are imminent or already in existence.

We will try to list those problems and the chance if those conflicts will have an impact on to the political, economical and social security of the country, region and the world.

 

Europe

Europe, excluding the territory of the former Sowjet Union, is together with North America one of the safest areas in the world. The problems in Europe are largely concentrated in the Balkan.

The United Kingdom and Spain

There are a couple of intra-state problems with small and at the moment rather insignificant terrorist groups in Spain and the United Kingdom. The IRA in the U.K. is trying to solve their problems by negotiations. The ETA, which stands for a seperate Bask country is losing support from the people living in Bask country. The people living in Northern Ireland and Bask country are getting enough of the mostly random violence of both organisations. Especially because some of the victims of their assaults were local people. A peace agreement between the IRA and ETA and the respective goverments is however very difficult to accomplish. The leaders of both organisations and the involved governments are hampered in their actions by the radical/extreme elements on their sides. The terrorist organisations have however lost a lot of their strength and certainly the support of their people who desperately are looking for peace.

Former Yugoslavia

The other problems in Europe are intra-state conflicts or potential conflicts with the potential to become inter-state wars. Yugoslavia has dissolved itself into five countries. Slovenia, Croatia, Macadonia, Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The first two have returned to normal countries, Macedonia has some problems with a minority, the Albanians, but this will probably not turn into violence. But the other two are still in a conflict like situation.

Serbia has a number of problems with the Albanian majority in Kosovo. The Albanians in Kosovo get less and less satisfied with the situation. The policy of civil disobedience and non-violent resistence seem to near its end. An increasing number of Kosovo-albanians want to use violence to get more freedom or even independence. The Kosovo- albanians however do not possess the equipment to become a danger to the Serbian dominance. They will need the support of other countries to become a threat to Serbia. According to the Kosovo-albanians they will receive outside support and this will lead to a new war on the Balkan. In reality most neighbouring countries are not in a situation to support the Kosovo-albanians, they have enough problems of their own. A civil war with the ambition to spread over the Balkan is not very likely in 1998. The resistance of the Kosovo-albanians will be limited to an underground Albanian society and some local actions against Serbian officials, but any open resistance will be suppressed very quickly by Serbia.

Most of the friction is still in Bosnia, the NATO led SFOR will forestall any form of agression of one of the sides but this will not create peace. The Serbians, Croats and Bosnians show in the mean time no inclination to start living together again. And this mutual acceptance is necessary to get a functioning peace in Bosnia and fully implement the Dayton accords.

Greece and Cyprus

The final area with tensions are born out of the differences about the exact line of the border between Greece and Turkey and their proxies on Cyprus. A peace agreement seems to be out of question but a better cooperation is one of the possibilities.

The difficulties which Turkey experiences about its membership of the European Union might however be used as a lever, way of revenge, by Turkey against any negative decision about entering the E.U. A worse relationship between Turkey and the E.U. or Greece will directly be translated to the situation on Cyprus.

1998 will probably bring no improvement to the tensions between Turkey and Greece and their counterparts on Cyprus. The situation will become even worser but it will not escalate into war. War is simply at the moment not an acceptable option to the political constellation in the area.

Russia and the former territory of the Sowjet Union

The intra-state problems in Russia seems to make a lesser impact in 1998. The state of the Russian economy is still to weak and the level of organisation in minority groupings in the area of the Russian federation to low to instigate any problems on the short term. On the longer term there are still a number of unsettled questions which might create a rather dangerous situation.

The Caucasus

A number of peoples in the Caucasus are not satisfied with the situation they are living in. Not only the Chechnyans want to be an independent nation but also several others like the people of Dagestan, North Ossetia and the Tsjerkessk have similar ambitions. Chechnya have become in facto an independent state but there is still no final agreement with Russia. The Chechnya intirim government is not the sole contender to power. There are a number of warlords which have their own policy and do not hesitate to assault Chechnyan government officials and even operate in Russia. The outcome of the Chechnya question is far from solved. If the political and economical situation of Russia improves a lot, Russia may start reviewing their position in the Caucasus and try to turn back the clock.

The Caucasus is a very volatile area. The conflict between Armenia and the oil rich Azerbaidzjan and the internal problems of Georgia with Abchasia and South Ossetia are still not settled. The situation can be described as a cease fire. All parties are preparing themselve and gather international support to solve it by military means. Russia is also playing a major role in the continuation of these conflicts. It is in the interest of Russia to keep those imbalances alive because that is the way they can keep a lot of influence in the region as long as Russia is not capable to do it by political, economical and military strength.

The new Asian republics

The new countries which came into existence after the dissolution of the S.U. like Kazachstan, Oezbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tadzjikistan have also a number of problems. Kazachstan for example is afraid of Russian involvement in their internal affairs because of the very large Russian minority who is living in the north of Kazachstan. Oezbekistan and Turkmenistan have only insignificant problems. The biggest problems are centred in Tadzjikistan. They not only have external security problems but has also internal problems about who is the legitimate government. All three receive a lot of Russian support including troops to protect the borders with Afghanistan. The three countries are under threat of Afghanistan, especially the expansion of their peculiar form Islamic government and Afghan “terrorist” groups who cross the border to support their allies in the three above mentioned countries.

But we envision for 1998 a preservation of the status quo in the former territories of the S.U. None of the countries and groupings in the area are strong enough to change this in the next year.

The Middle East

The Middle East will remain the most volatile area of this planet. The political, economical and religious contradictions combined with the availability of a massive weapons inventory and the will to use them makes the Middle East a powder keg which only needs to be ignited by a simple misunderstanding.

The threat on the long term will be even more dangerous than the ones listed above. The changes in the climate, the scarcity and the increase use of water by the countries in this region will make the distribution of water the factor which is the determinant of war and peace. All countries will view an unfair distribution or even diverting of water resources as a reason to go to war. The beginnings of this future tragedy is allready visible in Egypt, Syria and Israel. The threats Egypt has made at the adress of Sudan, if they change the flow of the Nile. Or the tension between Turkey and Syria about the irrigation projects on the Eufraat river in Turkey. Or the policies of Israel to keep control over the water resources in the Golan and the West Bank are examples of the problems to come.

Israel

The main potential conflict at the moment is the “Arab” world against Israel. The existence of Israel is still for some Arab countries unacceptable. Where the peace process promised some improvement and even wide acceptance of Israel, the policies of Netanyahu destroyed every hope on further cooperation. A military clash will be not very likely. The military dominance of the Israeli Defence Forces is still to large to be broken by the combined defence forces of Egypt, Jordan and Syria taken together. Even taken in consideration the improvements these three countries have made in the last years on their inventory and operation modus of their military forces.

The bad relations between the Arab states and Israel will primarily have a negative effect to the economic development in the region. The promising developments of the last years will be finally destroyed within the next year.

The deplorable economic situation combined with the dwindling water resources will prove to be real danger, on the long term, to peace in the Middle East. 1998 will see a maintenance of the status quo, none of the countries is able to question the dominance of Israel. But alliances and capabilites will change very quickly and the law of relative depreciation will eliminate the power of Israel.

Lebanon

Lebanon is still no sovereign country, the country is still divided by external forces. Even when the Lebanese are trying to rebuild their state after the war, civil and external, of the last decades.

Several foreign countries are dominating powers in Lebanon. Syria occupies a large part of the country and they are promoting the establishment of a Syrian friendly government in Lebanon. Israel has a security area in the south of Lebanon which is controlled by the South Lebanese army with the support of the Israelian Defence Forces, IDF. And Iran is supporting the Hezbollah organisation which is very active with combatting and ambushing the South Lebanese army and the IDF and they are even launching surface to surface missiles into Israel. Finally the older militias in Lebanon like the Amal and of Walid Dschumblat are regaining their power.

The Hezbollah with overt an covert support from some militias and even sometimes from the Lebanese army is occupied, succesfully, in trying to force Israel out of the Lebanon. The invincibility of the IDF have been hurt badly by recent actions of those organisations. There have been shown up several flaws in the equipment and operation modus of the IDF and the allied South Lebanese army.

The hostilities in Lebanon will not lead to a new all out war. But the future will depend on the negotiations with Syria and Israels policy towards the security zone. The continuation of a low intensity war will go on in 1998 with no clear winner in sight.

Turkey

Turkey faces some external problems with their neighbours. They have problems with Greece about the demarcation in the Aegean Sea and Cyprus. And the relation with Syria is strained because of the diversion of water of the Eufraat river and the close relations of Turkey with Israel. The external pressures will not lead to an armed conflict. It only will be a diplomatic one.

The internal problem is much more dangerous. The problem is the insurrection of the Kurdish people. The main organisation of the Kurds, the PKK, is still very active even when the Turkish military forces have tried, several times, to destroy them by following the PKK in their hideouts in Iraq. The suppression of the Kurdish people will not only limit the economic growth of Turkey but it will also create a bad international position. The only friend left to Turkey is essentially Israel. They are the only country which is willing to help Turkey with advanced military equipment to combat the PKK without to many questions asked. In contrary to the U.S.A. and the E.U. The contacts with the E.U. are already strained because of the unwillingness to let Turkey enter the E.U.

Iraq

The threat of Iraq has been downgraded by the second Gulf War and the succesive boycot and inspections of the United Nations. Another military adventure of Iraq will be very unlikely. The neighbouring states could spend their resources on improving their military capabilities where as Iraq had to spend their scarce reources on remaining in power.

The cat and mouse game between Iraq and the U.N. about the full implementation of the U.N. resolutions are only an annoyance. The threat of Iraq is more of a psychological nature. As long as Saddam Husein is in power with its ambitions of become a nuclear state, Iraq will present a danger to the security of the Gulf and the world.

Iran

The threat of Iran is based on its possesion of oil and the proximity to even larger quantities of energy resources. The military capabilites are not enough to fight a major conflict. But it is enough, especially because of the recent acquisition of modern diesel-electric submarines from Russia and surface to surface missiles from China, to stop the shipping of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

The support of Iran of terrorism has been a menace in the last years but it seems as Iran is changing their policy of supporting these terrorist organisations. The political costs have outgrown the profits of this policy.

There are two external areas of tension. Iran feels more threatened by the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan. This fundamentalistic government in Afghanistan is, beside the difference in religious interpretation, even for Iran a bridge to far. Iran actively supports some groups against the Taliban. The other external problem is with the United Arab Emirates. Iran have took possession of two small islands in the Gulf and stationed there some forces. But this will not lead to the use of arms by one of the two sides.

Egypt

The situation in Egypt is much more stabile. Internally there are some problems with a islamic fundamentalistic party, the muslem brotherhood, but this still can be controlled by the security forces. The only external threat is with Sudan which have tried, according to the Egypt government, to destabilise Egypt. Further, as mentioned before, the increase use by Sudan of water out of the Nile increases the tension with Egypt which is dependent on this source of water for their survival.

Saudi Arabia

The last area of tension in the Middle East is between Saudi Arabia and Jemen about the exact line of the border. It is expected that there are some large deposits of energy resources in this borderarea. Any problems will not emerge on the short term and if they do they will be solved by negotiations.

 

Asia and the Indian sub-continent

There are several areas of tension in Asia and the Indian sub-continent. This area which promisses to become the largest economic region in the world in the next century is abound of internal and external differences. The economic boom of the last decade made it possible for the countries in this region to improve their capabilities and they might be tempted to use the power they gained recently if a situation arises.

Korea

The Koreas, North and South Korea, are technically still at war with eachother. The ceasefire still holds and will probably hold also in 1998. The very bad economic situation in North Korea seems to make any military adventure very unlikely. North Korea could however use violence as a last resort to give them some breathing space and maintain their power but this will be very unlikely. The negotiations between the Koreas, China and the U.S.A., which started in 1997, will give some hope on a better future. The negotiations will stabilise the political situation on the peninsula.

The economic and especially financial problems which surfaced in 1997 in South Korea limits the support opportunities of the South to the North. The negotiations will become very difficult and lengthy because of the specific political situation and the financial difficulties. If a reunification will ever happen is doubtfull, and if it happens it will be a very lengthy process spanning more than 3 or 4 decades. Especially if one considers the difficulties Germany experiences with their unification. And East Germany was better developed than North Korea and West Germany much wealthier than South Korea.

China

China is another example of strong economic growth and a number of internal and external trouble spots. Beside the problems like poverty and unemployment which have their origin in the economic and social changes, the internal problems of China are with independence movements in Tibet and Xinjiang. The people living in these areas have none or little communality with the Chinese. The Chinese government is trying to solve the problems by increasing the number of native Chinese in these regions and with special economic growth programmes. The Tibetians and the muslem people of Xinjiang will continue to fight for their independence on the short term. Especially the muslems will be the most dangerous enemy to China. Whatever treaty China will have with their Islamic neighbour countries, the muslems in Xinjiang will receive overt and covert support from their brothers in race and religion. Where as the Tibetians could destroy the international goodwill/position of China. Both struggles for independence will pose no threat to the integrity of China in 1998. But the problems should not be underestimated it could become a brake on the economic development of China and a lot of violence in the coming years to suppress any opposition to the integrity and government of China.

A mixed internal and external trouble area is Taiwan. China considers Taiwan as a renegade province and therefore an internal problem. But if Taiwan claims independency it could become also an external problem. The proclaimation of independency would immediately demand a reaction of China. It would mean war but the capabilities of the Chinese armed forces are not strong enough to win a war with Taiwan. China will therefore try to isolate Taiwan and destroy its economic capabilities of which they are capable. But the proclaimation of independence will be very unlikely. Both sides are fully aware of the precaurious situation and the advantages of the status-quo.

The external problems are all border questions. China has differences with nearly all neighbours with the exception of the former Sowjet republics, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Birma and Laos.

China has some minor differences with Japan about the nationality of some small uninhabited islands in the East Chinese Sea.

The problems are of a bigger scale with Vietnam. China and Vietnam both claim the Paracel Islands where beside the natural resources some energy resources are suspected.

And finally China has a potential conflict with all states on the South Chinese Sea. The origin of this conflict are the Spratly Islands with their rich natural resources and probably large energy and mineral resources.

China does not possess the capabilities to enforce their claim on the islands on the short term. But if the economic boom continues as in the previous years, China will enforce their claim at the end of the first decade in the next century.

Whatever the arguments they use now, if the economic growth continues as before, China will be the dominating country in Asia in the next century with the attached political and military power. And at that time conflicts will be nearly unavoidable.

Cambodia

The situation in Cambodia is troublesome. The internal problems which already are going on for several decades seem to find no ending. The elections did not bring one clear winner and therefore the old communist party, CPP could stay in the government in coalition with FUNCINPEC, the party of the royalists.

The communists under the leadership of Hun Sen could oust the royalists. The king could stay as the head of state but with effectively no power. Hun Sen seems to be in control with only a little resistance left by small groups of royalists and the last remainnants of the Khmer Rouge.

Hun Sen will have difficulties in getting international recognition but there is no internal threat which can replace him in 1998.

Philippines

Beside the problems about the Spratly Islands, the Philippines have no external threats. The only problem of the Philippines is of internal origin. There is still a secession movement of the muslems, the Moro National Liberation Front MNLF, who do not want to live under the mainly Christian Philippines and demand their own nation. And small parts of the NPA, New People’s Army, who wanted to create a communist state on the Philipinnes.

The scale of this insurgency by the MNFL and the NPA is to small to dominate the Philippine politics and the differences with the MNFL are already nearly solved by negotiations. The NPA is also nearly destroyed only a couple of very small groups are still struggling to survive. In 1998 we expect therefore no big problems in the Philipinnes.

Indonesia

The situation in Indonesia is similar to the one in the Philippines. The only external problem is with China about the Spratly Islands. The internal problems are however bigger than in the Philippines.

Indonesia is plagued with an “agressive” opposition party, the PDI, who demands their rightfull place in Indonesia. They want to act as a opposition party and want the same rights as the sitting Golkar party. The Indonesian government annoys the opposition parties and is trying to make any normal political work impossible. The downturn in the economic situation only makes the problem worser and the need to start some changes in the current political and economic system more pressing.

The dissatisfaction of the population with the political system and the economy have to be met by the government, if they fail to do so more violence can be expected in 1998.

The Indonesian government is further entangled in a secession war on the island of Timor. The former Portogese colony which is occupied by Indonesia for more than 20 years continues to fight against the Indonesian occupation.

The “freedom” fighters of Fretilin are however not strong enough to win the war against the Indonesian defence forces. The status quo will be maintained on Timor. With now and then an uproar of violence.

The other two internal problems of Indonesia are on Sumatra and on West New Guinea. The people of Sumatra want to achieve independence or autonomy status of Indonesia. The energy and natural wealth of Sumatra makes the case of more right/independence a national security issue. There are two organisations who are fighting the Indonesian forces. The peoples movement Aceh merdaka, “for a free Aceh”, is a political movement which is not very violent and could be satisfied by an autonomy status. And the muslem organisation GPK who is engaged in a guerilla war with Indonesia and will be only satisfied with independence.

The other insurgency in on West New Guinea. The people of West New Guinea do not feel comfortable in Indonesia and are fighting for independency. The OPM is the leading organisation in the fight against the Indonesian forces. They get support from Papua New Guinea.

The chances for the people of Sumatra and West New Guinea to succeed are very slim. The Indonesian forces are capable to control the situation but sometimes they have to use excessive violence to suppress the movements. The fighting strength of the movements get lesser by the year. And finally the migration plans of the Indonesian government will destroy the independence plans of the original population. The coming years will see a decrease in violence on the outer islands of Indonesia.

Papua New Guinea

The problems in Papua New Guinea are centred around Bougainville. The people of Bougainville feel exploited by the national govenment who only extract the resources without returning something to the local community.

The Bougainville Revolutionary Army, BRA, demand secession or at least autonomy of their region. After several years of fighting the conflict has come to a standstill. The mines on Bougainville are closed since the fighting started.

The government is not strong enough to counter the BRA with force and have now started negotiations under the guidance of New Zealand. This development will stop the violence on the short term. The final outcome is unsure but the space of movement is not that large for the government, which makes a positive outcome more likely.

Sri Lanka

The security situation of Sri Lanka is undermined by the battle against the Tamil Tigers, LTTE, who fight for an independent state in the North of Sri Lanka. The defence forces of Sri Lanka have improved their position in the battle against the Tamil Tigers but they are far away from victory.

Negotiations with the LTTE have been fruitless and were only used to reinforce both sides military. 1998 will therefore see a continuation of the fight against the Tamil Tigers. The government will try to limit the territory and military power of the Tamil Tigers and at the same time try to persuade the Tamil people by a “hearts and mind” campaign to stop supporting the LTTE. But this will take time and Sri Lanka will see next year a lot of violence before a peace-like situation will return.

Bangladesh

The internal problems of the Bangladeshi government with the tribal peoples of the Chittagong Hill Tracts seemed to be solved by the peace accord at the end of 1997. Some hardliners at both sides will oppose to the accord but they will probably not be able to destabilise it. The refusal to the accords will be local. The Bengali and the Hill people will fight eachother at local disorganized actions. But they do not possess the capabilities to let grow in a national issue.

Afganistan

The situation in Afghanistan is still very worrisome. The Taliban has been able to conquer two-thirds of the country but they failed and will continue to fail to conquer the last third. The Taliban which have introduced an extreme form of islamic fundamentalism are only recognized by three countries in the world.

The opposition against the Taliban are belonging to five different parties. They cooperate in the same way as they did against the Sowjets. The northern peoples were also in the fight against the Sowjet occupation from 1980 till 1988 very succesfull.

Until recently the victories of the Taliban were on known territory against warlords of Pathan decent, the Taliban is also Pathan. The Pathans have got war-tired which made the victory relatively easy. When the Taliban tried to do the same thing in the North where the Oezbek and Tajik people pose the majority things became very difficult. This five party alliance which came into existence after the rise of the Taliban will continue to fight the Taliban in 1998. They will get support from their neighbours in the North. All countries which are bordering Afganistan are supporting the alliance against the Taliban. Those states consider the Taliban as a threat to their countries. With the exception of Pakistan which is supporting and acknowledging the Taliban government.

The civil war in Afghanistan will continue without a chance for one of the sides the create a decisive victory. The status quo will be maintained in 1998 and the tragic epic will continue.

India

The biggest democracy on earth, India, is at the same time one of the most diversified country in the world. It is multi-cultural, -linguistic, -religion and -racial. Sometimes there are some difficulties between all these groups but in general living together has been relatively peacefull if one considers the quantity and intensity of the different groups.

There have been people/groups/sects which demanded more autonomy or even independence from India like for example the Sikhs. But all these movements lacked the support and the stamina to gain there goal.

The exception has been mainly the secessionists in the state Kashmire in the North of India. Since the independence from the U.K. this area has been in trouble. The muslem majority did not feel at home in India. They would have preferred it to be independent or be a part of Pakistan. One-third of Kashmire belongs to Pakistan which therefore has claim on the other two-thirds in India. This gives the conflict an inter-state flavour.

The Kashmiris will continue to support the organisations who fight for independency or becoming a part of Pakistan. They will use force to achieve it but the Indian security forces will prevent much of it. The military strength of the Kashmiris is to small to make an impact. The alleged support of Pakistan is not enough to change the situation but it increases the tensions between India and Pakistan.

This brings us to the major security problem of India. The border problems with Pakistan. The conflict with Pakistan is not new, the two countries already waged two wars with eachother about the state of Kashmire. Both countries do not trust eachother and live behind two heavily guarded borders. The tension is at the highest in Kashmire on the Siachen Glacier. Indian and Pakistani military forces clash regularly with eachother on this glacier. This middle-intensity war goes on since 1984. These artillery and fire-arms exchanges happen in one of the highest and harshest areas in the world.

The politicians of both countries have tried to solve the differences by negotiations but the demands and expectations of both sides are still to much focused on getting everything. The tension between India and Pakistan will continue in 1998 with now and then an exchange of fire. The chance that a new war will start is not very likely, the politicians of both countries are to carefull to let the situation escalate. The costs of war are to expensive on what can be gained.

Africa

What was called the “lost continent” in the last decade, it has made its come back. Africa has returned to the map of the economy and the political affairs. A number of African economies are booming and promise growth for the future. The change of government in a number of southern African countries changed former alliances and new markets and resources are discovered again.

Beside the good news there are also some negative developments. The genoïcide, the corruption, the suppression of the opposition parties, civil war and the several criminal/political organisations who are raiding through a number of countries.

Algeria

The move towards a democratic country have proved to be a nightmare. The fundamentalistic party, FIS, which won the elections in the early 90ies have been put out of power by the defence forces. The defence forces have taken over the government, with consent of the West, to save the country from islamic fundamentalism.

The country has turned into a killing field since the take over of power by the military. The internal situation is very bad in Algeria. The government seems to be unable to combat and defeat the FIS and their armed forces the Islamic Salvation Army and the independent Armed Islamic Group, GIA.

The islamic organisations seem to be free to spread terror and destroy the economy of Algeria. The economic situation and the future seems to get worser by the day. The elections which were staged by the government are won by the president and his party but the number of voters was low. There is no end in sight to the internal problems of Algeria. All negotiations are boycotted by one of the sides so any deal which could mean an end to the conflict has no chance.

Senegal

After many years of peace in Senegal a new threat has emerged against the unity of Senegal. In the south of the country an independent movement have made the call for seperation of Senegal. The movement is partly religiously inspired, the muslems have the idea that they are not good represented by the central government. Not only the political and economical power is unfairly distributed but also the religious values are undervalued by the government.

The situation should not be underestimated. The use of violence is until now limited but if the question is not properly adressed the situation could easily get out of control.

Liberia

The elections which were held in 1997 have put Charles Taylor in the position of president. The warlord who ousted the former president and started a civil war is finally in command. The result of the election is largely due the wish of the people for peace and as Taylor seemed the strongest contender he has got the vote.

The African peace force is leaving the country to leave Taylor in power. Taylor should have, or at least started, to build a new army and police force from all former factions in the civil war. But as it seems Taylor is primarily using the troops from his own faction to police/control the country.

The other factions of the civil war are not strong enough nor possess the legitimacy to question the position of Taylor. But in the long term the ethnic factions will rally against Taylor and this would probably mean another conflict in Liberia. But for 1998 Taylor is in the position the consolidate his power without a threat from another party.

Nigeria

The dissolving of the government by general Sani Abachi, the president of Nigeria, and the low turn out during the following elections at the end 1997 did not improve the position of Abachi. The position of Abachi in questioned by the international community and by the people of Nigeria. The lack of support from the people of the North or the people of the South increase the weak position of Abachi. Its only ally seems to be the defence forces of Nigeria.

We will see an increase of violence in 1998 in Nigeria. The violent suppression of any opposition will be the only way for Abachi to stay in power. As long as the many different ethnic groups in Nigeria act independently against Abachi he will be able to withstand them. But if the northern or southern people can find an operation modus to work together one of the sides can take over control.

But the dominating North which is used to a power position, will not easily accept the South in command. On the other side, the more and more self-conscious people of the South, and most of the energy resources are located in the South, are not that willing anymore to accept the North as the natural leaders of the country.

This constellation of power, resources, tradition and most importantly the changes which could start in Nigeria will promise a new civil war in the near future. 1998 will be the year in where the possible alliances will start to cooperate. The government will react through the increase suppression of the opposition. Which in the end speeds up its collapse.

Congo – Brazzaville

The civil war in Congo seems to be over. The new president Denis Sassou Nguesso seems to have the support of a number of countries like Angola and France. This creates an opportunity to consolidate his power and start to rebuild the country.

The options of the former president Pascal Lissouba are limited. He still has a number of forces under his command. The forces are only a fraction of the former national army. They have fled to the North of the country after the defeat against the militia of Nguesso. To regain power Lissouba will need the support of other countries. This support will be however limited to non-existent and this will change the remaining forces of Lissouba quickly into an armed gang. Unless Lissouba gets support from abroad he will be finished within a year.

Congo – Kinshasa

The forces of Kabila have taken over the country with an astonishing speed. There are only a couple of internal security threats left to be solved.

First there are some foreign organisations operating from Congolese territory into Uganda. These are being countered in a joint operation with Ugandan forces.

Second there are several movements in Congo who want more autonomy or even independence from Congo. These movements already exist since the independence from Belgium. A number of provinces could become semi-independent during the Mobuto regime who was only interested in getting money out of the country. Who was satisfied as long as the money arrived and the provinces called themselve to be part of Zaïre.

Especially the provinces of Shaba and to a lesser extent Kivu see opportunities for themselve if they would be independent. At the moment they are not violent or are considering using violence to gain their goal. But the central government in Kinshasa should take care not to underestimate the wishes of the provinces. They could easily mobilise the people, funds and international support to start a fight for independence.

Rwanda

The Tutsi minority has regained power after a lengthy guerilla war and the massacre which the Hutus committed against moderate Hutus and Tutsis in general. The new Tutsi government could install their power structures in the country but there are still several Hutu groups which resist the new situation.

The Hutu extremists operate from within Rwanda and out of Congo. The Tutsi dominated Congolese army is cooperating with the Rwandan army in the fight against the Hutus. This conflict will continue and intensify in the coming years. The Hutus will prove difficult to defeat especially because the conflict will have a guerilla nature and the conflicting parties will not come easily together to negotiate. The political differences and the genoïcide has created to much hate and distrust.

Burundi

The internal situation is also stressed in Burundi. The Hutus and Tutsis show an equal dislike towards eachother as in Rwanda. The situation is only kept better under control by the government.

The tensions in Burundi will increase in the coming year. The Hutus resist the division op power as it is in Burundi. The Hutus organize their resistance and even use violence against the government. It seems as Burundi is on the way to a civil war. The Burundi government is distributing weapons to their people, the Tutsis, to defend themselve against the Hutus. The Hutus who remained in Burundi and the ones who return from the Congo and Tanzania are concentrated in several areas which will diminish the support to the Hutu organisations. This is positive to reduce the violence on the short term but it is no solution to end the conflict. The spiral of violence is still in action in Burundi.

If this development can not be turned in another direction civil war will be unavoidable in Burundi. The situation is worsened because of the support the ethnic groups receive from eachother in the Congo, Rwanda and Burundi triangle.

Uganda

The Ugandan government under the leadership of Museveni has pacified the country after decades of civil war. Uganda only has some minor internal conflicts with a couple of small but very agressive groups like the West Nile Liberation Front and the Party of God. The first group operates out of Eastern Congo and the latter out of Sudan.

Both groups “excel” in spreading terror but they are not capable to make an impact on the government. In cooperation with the Congolese army the Ugandan army is trying to eliminate the West Nile Liberation Front. The elimination of the Party of God has to be done on their own because they do not receive any support from the Sudanese government who is supporting the Party of God.

The use of guerilla warfare and the inhospital terrain makes destroying both organisations very difficult. The violance will therefore continue in 1998 but time is working against those small organisations with none or limited outside support.

Sudan

The islamic fundamentalistic government of Sudan is trying since decades to eliminate the christian and indigenous beliefs in the south of Sudan. The goal of the Sudanese government is to make the whole of Sudan an islamic country.

In the south the people are resisting the northern dominance and at least two organisations are fighting against the north. The SPLA under the leadership of John Garang is the largest and there is a smaller organisation which is split off the SPLA.

Since the southern organisations cooperate with a couple of northern tribes with the same goal of eliminating the islamic government they are more succesfull in defeating the northern forces. Before that cooperation the south was only active in the southern parts of the country, but now they are also operating in the north of the country and push the government to the negotiation table.

The conflict will continue in 1998, the internal situation will deteriorate. The government forces will be pushed even further in the defensive and the already bad international relations will worsen. The Sudanese support for terrorist organisations brought them only two friends, Irak and Iran. Two countries who can not give the necessary support when you are dealing with a civil war.

Somalia

The internal situation in Somalia seems to get better after the peace accords between the 40 warlords are signed. The two largest warlords, Aideed and Mahdi, support the agreement. Even the warlord, the ruler of Somaliland, in the north of the country is participating in the accord. This could reunify Somalia as one country instead of the several small entities which each its little leader.

The solution to the chaos in Somalia, the Accords of Egypt, will not be easy to fullfill. The number of participants with each his own interests makes it difficult to satisfy all those little wishes of each warlord. The conflict will renew with increased intensity if one warlord has the idea that his interests are violated.

The bad economic and social situation in Somalia, which is deteriorated even further by the natural disasters of the last years, gives a peace accord a better chance. But only time will tell what will happen. Somalia will continue to be a dangerous country with no clear government. Despite all good intentions of the Accords of Egypt the situation remains volatile.

If the international support organistions and NGO’s would return to Somalia the warlords could be tempted to startover their “racketeering” operations and this would mean the end of the Accords of Egypt.

South and Middle America

The political situation in Latin America has shown an impressive improvement. The former dictatorships are replaced by democracies with the exception of Cuba.

There are still a number of sensitivities between a number of South American states but they will most likely not trigger a war between two of more countries. The problems we mean are the traditional fears between some countries. Like Chile and Argentinia, Argentinia and Brazil. But these fears are appropriately dealt with through increased cooperation between several countries. Or about the purchase and stationing at the borders of “new and advanced” equipment. For example the acquisition of Leopard I MBTs by Chile which is experienced by Bolivia as threatening.

There are four areas of tension remaining in Latin America.

Mexico

The Mexican government has some problems with leftist organisations like the CND who want to improve the living conditions of Mexican farmers and the poor people in general. Some of those organisations have a strong indian-identity. Like the Zapatistas in the province Chiapas. The Zapatistas fight for more rights and the re-allocation of land to the original and poor people in Mexico and Chiapas in particular.

In some parts of the country those organisations can make a small impact on the local government. It can make life difficult at local level but the leftist organisations are not strong enough to resist the security forces of Mexico. Negotiations are the only way to change the situation but all negotiations are stalled because both sides are sticked to their views. Only time and international pressure can bring change to the Mexican society.

The actions of the Zapatistas and the like will be a nuisance in the future and can be controlled by the security forces. They can therefore not make a lasting impact on the government. Except if the government does not adress to the needs of the worser off in the country. Appropriate action is needed to avoid a massive support to organisations like the CND and the Zapatistas. If they would gain coutrywide support this could mean a revolution in Mexico.

Columbia

Columbia seems to be a country with a government without any influence. The security forces are not able to go where they would like to go. The “no-go areas” are controlled by communist guerilla organisations which are paid and funded by the coke-business.

Columbia is degraded to the unsafest country of South America. The communist guerilla is governing, effectivily, parts of the country. Beside the political defeat even criminal gangs, who cooperate with the communist guerilla in the coke business, seem to be free to do what they want. Kidnapping and racketeering have become part of the normal civilian and business life.

It will be very difficult for the government to restore order in the country and gain back the territory given up to the guerilla. The government should be able to do it with support of the international community. They will however demand that also the government itself should restore integrity in their ranks.

In the mean while Columbia will be a dangerous place to be in 1998. The chaos will continue as it did in the last year with the government only in command in the larger cities and some parts of the countryside.

Ecuador

The situation in Ecuador is about border differences with Peru. Since Peru was granted large parts of territory in the protocoll of Rio de Janeiro, which was administered before by Ecuador, differences were unavoidable.

None of the two countries have ever accepted the protocoll and several small exchanges of fire have happened. Since the last armed conflict in January 1995, there has been signed a cease fire and an international force is patrolling the border. This last cease fire did not solve the conflict. Negotiations should bring a peace treaty but as none of the parties is willing to give up any of their demands, peace will be difficult to achieve.

1998 will see a continuation of the tensions like in 1997, an armed peace is the best which can be reached in 1998. On the medium term a new armed conflict is one of the possibilities. An uparmed armed forces of Peru and Ecuador and the rise of internal difficulties in Peru makes the start of the war more likely.

Peru

Beside the territorial differences with Ecuador, Peru is struggling with another problem. Two leftist organisations, the Shining Path, Sendero Luminoso, of peasant decent and the more intellectual MRTA, is making life difficult for the government. The Shining Path is ambushing the government in the countryside where as the MRTA is more aimed at the city.

The goals of both organisations is to improve the living conditions of the poor through a communist program. The effectivity of both organisations is low. They do not have the resources and even more important they do not have the support from the people to succeed.

The security forces have been able, in cooperation with the people, to eliminate large parts of both organisations including the top. They probably only have 10 % of the fighting strength they used to have for a couple of years.

The Shining Path and the MRTA are not beaten and they will reorganize themselve and fight back. The government has to improve the living conditions of the people and relief the farmers of the service in the Rondas Campesinas, the village militias which are for a large part responsible for the losses of the Shining Path. If they fail to do that the government could easily loose the support of the people.

The future of Peru could be promising if they take the right decisions. 1998 will not show an increase in violence but it will be the year which decides about a peacefull or war ridden Peru 2000.