March 1998

Iraq after the U.N. brokered agreement – A note on China

Iraq after the U.N. brokered agreement

The diplomatic agreement reached by the secretary-general of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, seems to have taken out the fuze of the upcoming military strike against Iraq.

All parties seem to be winners because of the diplomatic solution. Iraq have been able to split the international community, they could change, however a small part, of the composition of the inspection teams and the most important aspect they could introduce a clause which states that the U.N. should respect the integrity and sovereignity of Iraq.

The U.S.A. can claim that their threat of violence has forced Iraq to obey the resolutions of the U.N. and that Iraq will not be able to become a threat to region at least at the short term.

And the international community is safe for the moment from another conflict and the proliferation of WMD.

Consequences of the solution

The diplomatic solution leaves a lot of questions unanswered and the problem unsolved. The inspection teams can continue their search for WMD but the threat out of Iraq is still alive.

All parties could gain something with a diplomatic solution but it is essentially nothing more than to maintain the status quo. Iraq is struggling to survive with as much military equipment and capabilites as possible. The U.N. on initiation and with strong support of the U.S.A. are doing their best to limit the capablilites of Iraq.

The solution has improved the Iraqi position a little. It has especially improved its international position in the Arab world. But it is not enough to change the political situation in their favor. The neighbouring Arab states want to improve the relations with Iraq but they still fear the ambitions of Saddam and his cronies.

Iraq can and will restart the harassment of the weapon inspectors of the U.N. within a couple of months. The creeping movements are aimed to hollow out the inspections the U.N. bit by bit. As long as the conflict does not turn into violence Iraq will be able to improve its diplomatic position. Time is working on the side of Iraq, more countries are willing to have normal relations with Iraq, which means that the embargo is just matter of time before it will be ended.

The Iraqi position have been improved by the statement in the clause that the U.N. and the inspectors have to respect Iraqi integrity and sovereignity. This means that they could possibly slow down or even limit inspections because it would violate Iraqi honour/sovereignity.

It is and will be in the future an illusion to think that the inspection teams will refrain Iraq from getting WMD. The inspections can at best slow down the development and production of WMD. The knowledge to built those weapons is in the possesion of Iraq and to built them is just a matter of time and funds. Especially if one considers the fact that most parts necessary to construct them are dual capable, the large stock piles of spare parts which do not fall under the UN resolutions and the unaccounted systems or part of systems which are still in Iraq.

The U.S. on the other side are relieved of an impossible situation. The planned air strikes would be a fruitless affair. Now they are in the position to assess their position and return with a better plan. The U.S.A. should have a comprehensive and clear Middle East policy which is fair to all sides. But what ever policy they want to execute they should pull it though and should not hesitate because of some negative consequences.

There are essentially two options to deal with Iraq. First force Iraq to obey the UN resolutions and try to remove Saddam out of power. This could be done by supporting indirectly Iraqi opposition groups or include the use of violence. Indirectly supporting opposition organisations will not be to succesfull if one will consider there performance in the last years.

If the UN or the U.S.A. decides to use violence they should only do so with the support of a number of Arab countries and with more means available, which includes at least limited ground warfare to directly support the opposition movement to get Saddam out of power.

The use of violence might be possible if Iraq, Saddam, violates the UN brokered agreement. The U.S.A. might gather enough political support to go for a military solution. But this will bring more hardship on the Iraqi population and will not guarantee a pacified Iraq after the operation.

Another military strike would force the U.N. to remove Saddam out of power he would otherways be a highly dangerous opponent with which no dialogue is possible.

The other option, more dangerous and difficult, would be to re-integrate Iraq into the world community with a number of regulations and controls which would limit the influence and power of Saddam and his armed and security forces. But at the same time Iraq has to be supported in the reconstruction of the country. Only people who’s basic needs are fullfilled are capable to work towards a more or less democratic society. Or at least a country which does not pose an immediate threat to its neighbours.

The use of military forces to solve the threat of Iraq might be more satisfactory to the U.S.A. as the sole superpower which is capable to defeat all military opponents. The military solution will not deliver more stability to the Middle East. On the contrary it will create a new alliance against the U.S.A. under the leadership of Iran. And this is an absolutely unwanted development.

A note on China

China has remained relativily untouched by the disturbances in Pacific area. The national currency have been able to keep its value. But China has not fallen victim to the destabilising developments as the other countries have. The Chinese economic development is not that advanced and to regulated by law and the rigidity of the communist party to be victim of the “Asian disease”.

The socio-economic problems of China are of a different nature. The rapid economic development has created large differences in China. There are geographical differences, the coastal provinces get developed but the inner countryside provinces stay behind. Economic differences, the farmers cannot compete with the industrialised workers, the large state owned companies are unprofitable but the privately owned and joint venture companies are booming. And finally a whole new class of pour people come into existence in the cities in the coastal areas. These people who fled the countryside to improve themselves find theirselves in slums with none or just part time work.

The worse off people see the workers in commercial companies and the small business people who are making more in a month than they do in a year. This creates friction and tensions which could create a very dangerous situation.

The situation is downplayed by the Chinese government. For example, there are officially around four million unemployed but the real number might be three times that large. Then there is also a very large group of people living under the existence minimum. The living conditions of these people are below any standard and this situation requires a quick and effective solution.

China is in need of an operation plan which takes care to eliminate the deficiencies of the rapid growth of the last years. A plan which will stimulate a balanced growth in all regions of the country and which also modernizes the agricultural sector. The establishment of a new small/medium sized industry and service sector, countrywide, will deliver prosperity based on internal demand which promisses long term growth. This will make the cities less attractive to migrate to and it will give the urban areas a chance to implement infra-structural plans which are aimed to promote business development without using to much funds as is happening now to rather unproductive sectors like housing and feeding the large number of unemployed.

Another important area is the insurance, pension and social security sector. Without a decent social security organisation economic development could be very short lived and the resulting aggravating socio-economic problems will become a danger to the society and the political system.