February 1999

Stability and Conflict in 1999

Part I, January:

– The Americas

– Europe

Part II, February:

– Africa

– Middle East

Part III, March:

– Russia / Former Sowjet Union

– Indian Subcontinent

– Pacific / Asia

Part II, Africa – Middle East

Africa

The black continent, which was a very promising continent after the decolonisation process, trapped into the trap of power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. The elite who came into power after the former colonial powers left, started with the idea of building a new strong country but ended up in building their own little empires with secretive bank accounts in Switzerland at the cost of the population.

The Cold War firstly divided up the continent between Eastern and Western oriented countries. If the orientation was not established bloody civil wars with the support of the East or West were fought out. After one side could win the alliances system at least created some stability and sometimes even some progress for the population.

After the Cold War ended alliances fell apart and new interstate and intrastate conflicts erupted. The intensity and furiousity was beyond any other conflict before in Africa. Without any bounds the opposing sides tried, sometimes succesfully, to eliminate eachother. Not only as an entity but also the physical elimination of each and every person or part of the entity.

The African continent can be separated into two parts, the area North of the Sahara and the Sahara with the Islamic / Arab countries and the sub-Saharan areas in the South with a more animist and Christian background. Where as the northern part is more less stable with some of them with an internal problem. The southern part is less stable, with a number of conflicts between countries and even more countries with a potentially destabilising internal problem.

The Sahara and North of the Sahara area

The countries in this area are mostly large Islamic dominated countries. The relations between the countries are more or less friendly with no active claims on eachother territory. With the exception of one conflict between the newest and one of the oldest countries of the continent. Some countries have some smaller or larger problems with a minority in a certain region who demand secession or with islamic-fundamentalist organisations who want to establish an Islamic state.

The countries in this region are Egypt, Libya, Tunesia, Algeria, Morocco, Western Sahara, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somalia.

None of those countries have a booming or even a healthy economy and a number of them have internal problems which could eventually destabilise the political situation in the country. Stability necessary to be an acceptable partner in business and investment is therefore non-existent. This situation will not see a substantial improvement in 1999 and in the first years of the next milennium.

Egypt

One of the largest country and population of Africa is very often seen as an Middle Eastern country. Egypt belongs geographically to Africa but socially and politically it is a Middle Eastern country.

The position of Egypt has improved dramatically since the peace treaty with Israel. This has brought some economic relief and substantial support from the U.S.A. The paria status of Egypt in the Middle East has gone and Egypt has established itself again as a leading country in the Arab world.

The only external threat is from Sudan. The differences with Sudan are about the flow of water in the river Nile and about Egyptian support towards the policy of the U.S.A. against fellow Arab countries like Iraq.

The government under the leadership of president Mohammad Hosni Mubarak has been able to execute a succesfull foreign policy but have been under pressure because of internal problems.

The social and economic positon of Egypt has deteriorated during the preceding years. The economic policy of the government has not been able to limit the mass unemployment or the bad economic situation in general. An alternative to the sitting government and to the bad economic situation has become the several islamic fundamentalistic organisations who are promising improvement. They could become a direct threat to the government. The fast growing population is another burden to the country and is creating even more economic and social tensions.

The fundamentalistic organisations are activily fighting the government by a two fold policy of firstly schools, medical centers and the provision of food to attract people. And secondly, by terrorist attacks on important buildings and persons and on the tourist industry to hurt the economy, the government and the foreigners who are the infidels in their eyes and partly to blame for everything bad in the world. The aim of this policy is to destabilise the government and to take over control and introduce the Sharia, the Islamic law.

The security forces in Egypt have been able to control the situation until now but they will not be able to suppress the popular feelings of discontent forever. 1999 will not bring a change in government but the pressure on Mubarak will increase. If there is none improvement in the economical situation of the majority of the population then in two to three years the situation could take a turn for the bad.

Libya

This oil and gas rich country has experienced better times. The fall in the prices of oil and gas has, in this energy export dependent country, deteriorated the economical situation in the country. The lesser revenues of the exports limits the economic growth and the spending possibilities of the government. The government is however forced to continue subsidising the primary living needs to keep the population under control and pacified.

The suppressed economical situation, economical instability, has not yet led to social instability. The people of Libya are relativily satisfied. They can make a living of the money they earn and are proud on the strength of the country to resist the U.S.A. and the sanctions of the security council. Which are not really damaging only a nuisance.

The people who are unsatisfied and actually resist the government under the advisory, read under command, of Muammer Abu Minyar al-Qadhafi are very quickly brought under control through a system of secret services and the socalled committees of Purity. The committees of Purity are organisations who are independent from the police or secret services with the goal of identifying, watching and punishment of opponents of the regime. The system of people watching the people.

The food subsidies, the secret services and especially the committee system could prevent fundamentalistic organisations to start a same kind of opposition as in Egypt or even worser Algeria.

The only problem of Libya is in foreign relations, or better a bad track record. Libya and its advisor Qadhafi have been a staunch supporter of the Arab case and clashed several times with the West and Israel when Arab people were involved. And even more damaging they have been supporting all kind of terrorist organisations and probably even committed acts of terrorism themselves. They are for example accused of the planebombing in the Lockerbie affair. The supporting of terrorists has delivered Libya air assaults from the U.S.A. and sanctions from the U.N. security council.

Libya has created a kind of artificial stability. The export dependent economy is in very bad shape but the Libyan government could prevent any social instability through subsidies and an effective control system. The government of Libya, Qadhafi, seems to be stable and Libya has changed its foreign policy and are now more friendly towards neighbours, bought friends in Africa and are acting more conciliatory to the West.

Tunesia

Tunesia is one of the more stable countries in North Africa. There are economical problems but the revenues from the tourist industry saved Tunesia from the problems the oil dependent countries experienced. There is a lot of poverty in Tunesia but this has not yet led to any major problems.

The fundamentalists could gain ground in Tunesia but they are not of the same scale in numbers and organisation as in Egypt. They are controllable through cooptation and with a minimum use of force.

Algeria

The problems in Algeria are very serious, there is no stability in Algeria. The problems in Algeria are on every level and are in every part of the society.

The civil war like situation in Algeria is the consequence of and the reason for even more problems in this country. Economically, the country is devastated. The all important oil and gas sector is in trouble because of the low prices and the need for investments in new installations which is not available. The non oil energy related industries which were started in the booming oil revenues years proved to be outdated, inefficient and unprofitable. The population growth exacerbated the economical situation.

The poverty and mass unemployment created a lot of social problems. The islamic fundamentalists of the FIS became an attractive alternative to the ruling FLN government. After the FIS could first win the county and later the national elections they were ejected by the all powerfull military. The military were against the establishment of a Islamic fundamentalistic state in Algeria.

The FIS rejected the military coup d’etat but could do nothing against it. They later reacted with their military arm the Islamic Salvation Army and this has created widespread political instability. The actions of the Islamic Salvation Army were small and not very damaging at first but later with the support of the independent GIA, Armed Islamic Group the results were devastating for the army and the country. A campaign of terror spread through the country. The GIA killed foreigners and western oriented people and massacred whole villages to impress the government and force the people to side with them. The government has been incapable to stop, eliminate, the FIS and the GIA. Some rumours even suggest that the military has jumped the bandwagon and destroyed a number of villages themselve to acquire the deserted properties for a very cheap price.

The civil war increased the problems in Algeria. There is political instability, there is essentially a non functioning state. The economic instability increased even further through the civil war. Production capacity is closed down because of direct influences of the conflict, is to expensive to operate or closed because of the lack of spare parts. This all led to unemployment and poverty. The social instability has reached unprecedented levels because of the war. Before the conflict they had to take care to get enough to buy food now they have to watch their lives. The situation has calmed down somewhat but the conflict is far from over. It seems as both sides are only recovering themselves to start again as soon as possible. A negotiated solution seems to be impossible in 1999, the parties have not yet been able to find a common clause.

Morocco

Like Tunesia, the problems of Morocco are about economics. The Moroccan economy is lagging which leads without any changes on the short term to economical instability. This creates some more unemployment and poverty but not enough to start social instability. The family structure of the Moroccan society has been proved to be a kind of social security service. All left out of the official economy is supported by the family and makes a little extra in the grey / black economy.

The kingdom of Morocco has proved to be a stable foundation against all threats towards the political stability. The government with H.M. King Hasan II, who has very large powers, have been able to neutralise any Islamic fundamentalistic organisation who wanted to change the character of the state.

The only problem is about the Moroccan position in the West Sahara. Morocco has a claim on that tract of real estate but this is rejected by the people, Polisario, living over there. The problem is under control and will not be able to create instability in Morocco in what ever way.

Western Sahara

This tract of land is not really a country, it is claimed by Morocco and by the original population of Saharans. After Spain left the situation remained unclear and Morocco moved in. They considered it as part of Morocco. But this is not recognized by the international community and the United Nations.

The Moroccan claim was firmly contested by the Saharans with their Polisario organisation. Polisario has fought a long and hard to state their claim and they have received support from Algeria and Mauritania. The support of those two have been respectivily stopped and diminished to virtually nothing.

The Moroccan forces have more or less won the military part of the conflict with Polisario especially when all support had disappeared. Politically the Moroccan claim was not accepted and the military actions against Polisario did not gain any approval, sooner disapproval. The famous David-Goliath contradiction. Politically the conflict was undecided.

International pressure and the United Nations demanded an election to clear the situation. The next problems arised with the execution of the elections; who is allowed to vote, who is a Saharan, and what about the many Moroccan immigrants. The conflict is still not solved and Morocco is not in a hurry to clear the situation or even support the election. This status quo seems to be beneficial to Morocco. Every month the rights of the Moroccans increase especially if the birth rate is high enough.

The West Sahara region is stable as long as both sides stay committed to the elections. 1999 will be the year of the decision as no side will be able or wanting to postphone the elections any longer. But the expectations from the elections might be to high. No side will be satisfied and one side will most probably reject the outcome.

Mauritania

The situation in Mauritania is pretty stable. The claims on West Sahara have been dropped so no external threat or better competition is around to spoil the relations to other countries.

The internal situation is very much the same, all former conflicts have been more or less solved. No group or organisation is activily fighting the government. The economy is not a top performer but it is doing allright. Considering the capabilities which exist. Consequently there is no social instability in political and economical stable Mauritania.

Mali

After years under the dictatorial regime of Moussa Traore, the situation in Mali has improved itself. The in 1992 elected president Alpha Oumar Konare could lead Mali out of the impoverishment to an economic revival. This has created economical and social stability in Mali. Even the near civil war, in the arid remote North of the country, with the Tuareg guerillas could be settled by Komare.

President Konare has done a lot of for his country. He his now however receiving resistance from opponents who think he is already to long in power. This will however not lead to political instability in 1999. It is just part of having an elected president.

Niger

The situation in Niger is about the same as in Mauritania. Both are poor countries with an economy doing allright. Old debts are a negative factor on the balance sheet which delivers Niger a high debt service ratio. This stable situation has created some social stability.

Politically the situation seems to show some improvement. There have been promisess of elections without that a date is set. But at the moment there are no active resistance / opposition parties acting against the government. One negative development are the acts of the government to give some officials large stakes in promising parts of land in the south of the country. This has created some displeasure in the country and especially in the region were it happened.

Chad

This remote country has had its fair share of problems with Libya about the exact demarcation of the border. Some large mineral deposits were the cause of the Libyan agression. This problem has been settled after a short but intensive battle against Libyan forces in the advantage of Chad. Which had considerable support from France.

The country has not become a stable country after the conflict with Libya ended. Several internal differences erupted about power and capital, or better how to divide it.

Externally, Chad is supporting the Kabila goverment in Congo with some troops. They are, curiously, financed by Libya who was making new friends in Africa with the use of the check book policy. This involvement is small and will have no effect on the political stability of Chad in 1999.

At the moment things seem to be calm and stable. But the not that good performing economy could create some instability which certainly would have its effects on the many different ethnic groups in the country. Chad will remain economically and socially unstable.

Sudan

The situation in Sudan is deplorable. There is no political, economical nor social stability. This large country in Africa is divided between the North and the South. The ruling North is Islamic and wants to establish an Islamic state in the whole of Sudan, including the Christian / animist South.

The economy is because of the civil war in the South non-existent and in the North underdeveloped and in difficulties through the high cost in capital and human resources. The oil fields on the border between the North and the South are therefore of very important for the North to sustain and win the conflict.

The social instability is all over Sudan because of the war. The South is in essence a desintegrated society through the fugitives and the hunger. The North is also getting more instable. The people have enough of the war which cost ever more deaths and opposition movements are becoming more radical because of the fundamentalistic Islamic policies of the government.

The South is resisting the dominance of the North and the Islamisation process. Over 1,8 million people have died in the last 15 years because of the war. These have died out of direct casualties and hunger. And this number will increase as the conflict continues in intensity and brutality.

The main opposition party is the SPLA, Sudanese Peoples Liberation Army, under the leadership of John Garang. They have tried to minimise the influence of the North in the South. Large parts of the South are under their control but the North has been able to keep control over an approximate equal part.

The government, the North, has been able to divide the resistance in the South with the help of a defected SPLA leader, commander Kerubino Kuanyin Bol. Kerubino has been held responsible for the hunger in the Bahr El-Gazai region were his forces with support of Northern forces ruled by terror.

Later Kerubino went back to the SPLA but the SPLA never was as strong as before the defection. Kerubino and his forces are primarily interested in looting and terror instead of beating the Northern forces.

The position of the North has been undermined by the recent actions of the SPLA in cooperation with some opposition movements out of the North of the country. These operations on the east bank of the White Nile were dangerous to the North.

The position of the SPLA and the opposition in the North have been undermined by the better relations of Sudan with Ethiopia. They lost support and bases from and in Ethiopia as the Ethiopian differences with Eritrea became more clear.

The situation is in a status quo as no side is capable to beat eachother. The instability on all levels will however continue as the conflict does not end in the short term. 1999 will see the continuation of the conflict between North and South. The North will have a tactical advantage now the Ethiopian support of the SPLA has vanished. But this will not be enough the beat the South on their own territory.

Thereby the North has been classified as terrorist supporting state which means worser political and economical relations with the West. If the terrorist attacks continue, Sudan could become again the target of revenge and an international boycot. This would undermine the strength of Sudan in their battle against the South.

Ethiopia – Eritrea

These two countries are listed together because of their common history and until 1998 the use of the Ethiopian currency, the Birr, in both countries. And they are having an interstate conflict over which some fighting has already occurred.

After the marxistic regime in Ethiopia was beaten in 1991 by the combined guerilla forces for a free Eritrea and the rebel forces in Ethiopia the future looked promising for the country. In 1993 the Eritreans demanded the secession from Ethiopia and received their independence.

The political, economical and social stability improved as all energy could be used for the reconstruction of the war damaged country. Internally and externally there were no problems, Ethiopia supported the Sudanese rebel forces but Sudan could not do much against it. The support was thereby not of that scale as it could endanger the Sudanese government.

The Eritrean situation was about the same, the stability improved and a (re)construction of the country was implemented. Eritrea however got into a conflict with Jemen over the Hanisch Islands. The Hanisch islands do not only possess valuable fishing grounds and tourist attractions but also most probably oilfields. After a short small scale military confrontation between the two countries the conflict could be solved after French mediation by diplomatic means.

In the years after the secession the only instability between the two were about economic differences about the sharing of the economy after the secession. But they were all controllable by the former partners and presidents of Ethiopia and Eritrea, Meles Zenawi and Isayas Aferworki.

In 1998 however a new problem between Ethiopia and Eritrea started. What first seemed to be only an internal administrative act turned out to be the fuze of a bomb. During the Italian occupation of Ethiopia the Italians were not very carefull with the drawing of the borders between the several regions. And as Ethiopia was one country after the decolonisation, a large number of Eritrean farmers settled in the western part of the province of Tigray. The Ethiopian government wanted those farmers to accept the Ethiopian nationality what they, with support of the local government, resented.

The Eritrean government immidiately supported the resentment of the farmers and claimed the territory as part of Eritrea and directed the military to occupy the region. Ethiopia, which never really accepted the secession of Eritrea, reacted by sending military forces to the disputed region. A war between the former partners developed including a small air war with bombardements on major cities.

This conflict has ended after the first battles in a kind of cease fire. But both countries are rearming themselves and are preparing the country for more fighting in the future. The political stability of both countries have become very unstable because of the war. At the moment the populations support the war but the high costs will have effect on the economic situation and if the number of deaths increase the social stability will also suffer in both countries.

The situation in Ethiopia is even worser as the Oromo people in the south of Ethiopia are demanding independence. The OLF, Oromo Liberation Front has committed already several assaults on government installations to force the government to grant them independence. The OLF receives support from fellow Oromians living in Kenya. The Ethiopian forces have clashed with Kenyian forces when they crossed the border in the pursuit of the OLF.

1999 will show a continuation of the tensions which started in 1998. The demand of the OLF and the differences about the triangle in te province of Tigray will have a negative effect on the political, economical and social stability of Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Djibouti

The political, economical and social stability of Djibouti will be secured as long as a medium to large French garrison in maintained in the country. The French will not tolerate any political upheavals which destabilise the country. The economical benefits of the garrison are positive for the country and this will positivily influence the social stability. But the French presence in the country will not solve everything, there is still a large task for Djibouti.

A prudent economical and social policy is necessary to develop the country. If the government fails to do so there will be a moderate instability which could be dangerous to the government.

The political stability is equally important as the French are not that tolerant anymore as they used to be towards incompetent and inhumane governments. And their departure could be devastating for Djibouti, but this will be very unlikely considering the strategic location of Djibouti. But again never say never.

The necessity of good government policy becomes clear in the relations with Eritrea. There is between Djibouti and Eritrea a problem about the demarcation of the border. Eritrea is very aggressive on possible violations or misunderstandings about their territory, as became clear on the Hanisch Islands and the Western part of the Tigray province cases. This problem is still soluble by diplomacy and an agreement could be important for the stability in Djibouti.

Somalia

Somalia as such does not exist anymore. After the civil war between the many clans and subclans in the country, the country is divided in about 26 clanregions with the exception of Somaliland which is more or less a central state on his own.

All peace accords have had no effect on the development in Somalia. All clans wanted to have their own territory to start later, if they were strong enough, to try to capture the whole country. As this did not work cooperation between the clans seems to be possible.

The clans could conquer the territories but they were not able to manage the territories. Civilians from the territories had to arrange a state system by themselves, and it works pretty well. This limits the influence of the clanleaders but if asked the Somali will always choose for his clan instead of Somalia.

The only chance to create some political, economical and social stability in Somalia is by slowly integrating the several clans into a lose federal system with a lot of influence for the clan in their region. The traditions of the Somali clanstructure should be maintained in every attempt for a new Somalia.

For 1999 the only political, economical and social stability is in the individual clan regions and the republic Somaliland. A united Somalia will prove not to be attainable in the next year, this will be a five to ten year plan. And even this will only prove to be reachable if all circumstances are positive. The smallest clan can destroy all progress.

The Sub Saharan area

This area south of the Sahara is the real black Africa as imagined by the people. The people are black and there are wide savannes, a lot of jungle and exotic animals which are connected with the continent.

In this area there are small and large countries with a wide array of natural richess like timber, minerals, cacao, coffee and even in some countries oil and gas. The majority of the countries are however living in poverty out of the low prices for commodities, the several conflicts and the inability to explore the natural weath.

The smaller countries are mostly in western Africa and the larger countries are in the southern part of the continent. The majority of the countries are unstable countries, most of the countries have an internal problems about who should rule. The only way to find out who should govern seems to be by violence, and this gets very nasty. The internal conflicts are getting very often larger then supposed because neighbouring countries are supporting one side or the other and get involved. With all negative consequences included.

The following countries belong to this group: Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Cameroun, Centrafrica, Equitoral Guinea, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, Congo (DRC), Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Malawi, Sambia, Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Moçambique, Swaziland, South Africa, Lesotho, Madagascar and the Comores Islands.

Some of them are stable countries with just a few or small problems but others range from a little destabilised to nearly desintegrated.

Senegal

This country profited full from the touristic industry and there have been economical and social stability, at least for the majority of the country. Politically there is a rather pressing problem. In the south of the country, the region Casamance, is demanding secession from Senegal. The people from Casamance feel ill represented by the government in Dakar. They argue that not only the political and economical power is unfairly distributed but that the religious traditions of the region are undervalued by the central government.

The situation is still under control but if the problems are not properly adressed the people of Casamanche will do more than just demand secession.

Gambia

This small tract of land, pierced into Senegal, has been living in stability. Without any external threats and internally also without any radical opposition the country could develop without any unneeded investments and distractions. The political stability has in turn created economical and social stability.

Guinea-Bissau

This small country with a small economy and a marxistic history has experienced last year one of its worser years. After president Joao Bernardo (Nino) Vieira ordered the relief of general Ansumane Mane, because of arms smuggling, the largest part of the underpaid military immediately supported their general and started an insurrection. Senegal and Guinea supported the president and sended some forces to help the president. A cease fire was reached but this did not held very long. The fighting started again and the rebel forces could make some nice gains, including the second and third largest cities of the country and they controlled the military barracks and the international airport in the vicinity of the capital.

President Vieira ordered a unilateral cease fire and stated that he wanted to negotiate to reach a peace full solution. This ended in a new peace accord. A top adviser of the rebels, which is also the oldest opponent of Vieira, has been appointed as prime minister of a national government of national unity. The primary task of this government is to prepare the presidential and parliament elections in March 1999.

This peace accord have brought some political stability and the elections could improve this stability. Now the rebellion has been solved peacefully, economical and social stability can be fostered again. Next year is therefore important for the future of Guinea-Bissau, it will decide between stability or the chaos of civil war.

Guinea

The situation is Guinea is promising. There is political, economical and social stability. There are at the moment no known radical organisations which want to implement a revolution. The socialist experiments have ended and the move to a market based economy has been positive. The strenght of the country was proven when they were able to take over responsibility in ECOWAS, Economic Community of West Africa, and sended military support to Guinea-Bissau to combat the recent army rebellion.

Sierra Leone

The situation in Sierra Leone has deteriorated. The Revolutionary United Front, RUF, with support of rebellious army forces remains a danger to the government. Sierra Leone is a country in civil war, there is no political, economical and social stability. The power of the government is severly limited, the economy has come to a standstill and the people have to protect themselves against the army, ECOMOG, the RUF, food shortages and diseases to survive.

In 1997 was the RUF able with the help of the army, especially the lower ranks and soldiers, to defeat the government of the elected president Ahmad Tekan Kabbah. Large parts of the army supported the RUF while in the previous years of fighting against the RUF, the government used extensively the Mende militia, Kamajor. President Kabbah is also a Mende and the army felt being sidelined. The lower ranks were frustrated that the Kamajor became the most important force, thus limiting the possibility of a career in the army.

President Kabbah received support from ECOMOG, Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group, or the west-African intervention force. This ECOMOG intervention force consisted out of forces of the Gambia, Mali and were as usual under the leadership and domination of Nigeria. After a short operation they could with the support of the Kamajor recapture the government and reinstall president Kabbah.

The RUF and the former army members, the army had been disbanded in the mean time, were however not beaten. In the interior of Sierra Leone they could regroup and collect even more dissatisfied young men who were prepared to fight, loot, rape and mutilate. All over Africa young frustrated young men are prepared to fight for every cause a dissatisfied ambitious politician wants to realise.

The RUF started another offensive and could conquer large parts of the country including the diamond rich regions to finance the war. The RUF received further support from Charles Taylor in Liberia and from president Blaise Compaore out of Burkina Faso.

The RUF, for the second time, could nearly take over the whole country. Ecomog and the Kamajor could just avoid that the RUF took the capital Freetown. The RUF was only willing to agree to a cease fire if their leader Foday Sankoh would be released out of prison. The RUF under the intirim leadership of general Sam Bockarie had proven to be serious and dangerous with their threat to continue the fighting if they did not get what they wanted.

The government seemed at that moment to be forced to accept the cease fire conditions. They were not strong enough with the limited Ecomog support to stop and eliminate the RUF. The Ecomog was however reinforcing their force in Sierra Leone with another 5.000 men to 15.000 men including a Nigerian elite unit. Nigeria had in the mean time been pressing the other members of ECOWAS, Ivory Coast, Guinea, Ghana and even Liberia to fullfill their obligations and send forces to Sierra Leone in the support of Ecomog. The reinforced Ecomog military forces have the ability to beat the RUF and this would change the position of president Kabbah in any negotiations with the RUF to end the conflict.

The problem with a civil war is that it is difficult if not impossible to totally eliminate a guerilla force by force. The guerilla, RUF, will seek refuge in the countryside and return later to fight the democratic elected government.

The Economog has been till now a reliable partner but if the civilian government in Nigeria is installed the future of the Ecomog looks bleak. The falling oil prices and the rising tensions in Nigeria makes the leading Nigerian role in Ecomog unlikely in the coming years.

The civil war has in the mean time created economic and social instability. The economy is virtually at a standstill and destroyed. The social dimension is even worser. The people are out of food and all civilian structures are destroyed and / or fall apart.

In 1999 stability will not return to Sierra Leone. The civil war will continue if the combatting parties do not reach a diplomatic solution. The other option is that the government with support of ECOMOG will try to eliminate the RUF. After a prolonged battle they will most probably be able to defeat the majority of the RUF forces. But some will survive and continue their fight a a later point.

Whatever will the outcome, if a diplomatic solution is reached or the RUF defeated. The remaining part of the RUF who wants to continue to fight have to be controlled and the other defeated forces of the RUF have to be demilitarised. They will most likely not become a peacefull force but fall to banditism. A return to normalcy will take more, it requires better opportunities for the forces of the RUF and the large group of dissatisfied youths of the country.

Liberia

The situation in Liberia has improved somewhat since Charles Taylor has been confirmed in power. Taylor and his party the NPFL belong to the same generation and the same kind of organisation as Foday Sankoh and the RUF. Both are trained in Libya and were supported by Burkina Faso. Both were dissatisfied with the government and wanted to take over the country.

After a bloody civil war, intervention from Ecomog, civil war and finally elections, there is now some kind of political stability. This will give the economy and the people a chance to recover from the civil war. But Taylor and his cruel followers are an unreliable force which could become violent again if they do not get what they want. 1999 could show a move to more stability in the country but volatility could return very quickly.

Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast belongs to the small group of countries in Africa which has created stability in the country. An accepted government has been in power for a long time with peace full transitions. The economy is delivering a respectable performance. The people seem to be satisfied. There are no parties or people who want the change the government with the use of violence like in Liberia or Sierra Leone.

1999 will be the same as before, the stability can be maintained and probably improved. The only real problem are the high debts which demand every year high interest payments. But with a sound economical policy this is a manageable problem. This debt problem is also valid for Ghana, Togo and Benin.

Ghana

Ghana has established itself as a stable country. The country under the leadership of president Jerry John Rawlings has created some prosperity and they could stay away from the violence in the region.

Internally the situation is also stable, the people are not wanting nor desiring any violent change as in Liberia.

1999 will not bring a change to this situation. Ghana will continue to belong to the small group of stable promising countries in Africa.

Togo

The situation in Togo is comparable with Ghana and Ivory Coast. Togo is a stable country and is moving towards a multi-party democracy. This will deliver even more political and social stability. The economy is also on the road of improvement. The progress made over here will increase the economic stability of the country.

Benin

Benin has shown some improvement in the last years. Like their neighbours, Benin could develop itself without any big distractions from outside threats or internal agressive movements.

The political stability has created economical and social stability. The triangle of stability will foster eachother towards new levels of stability in 1999.

Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso is a kind of malie genie and miracle in the region. This country is supporting and have supported the guerilla forces in Sierra Leone and Liberia. Burkina Faso is on the other side a democracy. The last elections went through without any problems. The political stability is based on a disciplined and orderly society. The political stability has created a stable economic foundation and the government has maintained a strict economic policy of balanced budgets. This has created some economic progress and this led to social stability. Education is at a high level in Burkina Faso, it easier to find engineers then a practically skilled workforce with experience.

This situation will most probably continue in 1999 and promisses even more stability and growth.

Nigeria

The political situation have changed dramatically in 1998. The former president Sani Abacha died and his successor major-general Abdulsalam Abubakar promised elections as soon as possible. It is expected that in May 1999 a new civil government should be installed.

The winner of these elections, presidential, parliament and local, will be most probably the PDP, People’s Democratic Party of the former military president Olusegun Obasanjo. He is a Yoruba and has support throughout the country. The second strongest party will be most likely the APP, All People’s Party. This party belongs to the group around former president Sani Abacha. The third party will probably be the AD, Alliance for Democracy. This party fought for a return to democracy during the Abacha regime. The majority of their followers are in the South-West of the country with the Yoruba tribe. This will limit their chances to win in the whole of Nigeria.

This change of policy, a civil government, opened a lot of doors for Nigeria. Nigeria is now again one of the respected nations in the world. This will improve their economic position as the oil revenues are at a historic low and other opportunities are absolutely necessary.

The political stability will be improved through the return to a civilian government in 1999. But the many differences between the many ethnic groups in Nigeria, the continuing economic problems and the high crime rate are damaging the economic and social stability in the country. This will have its effect on the political stability.

The political stability will be most pressed by the resistance of the local population in the South against the exploiration of the oilfields without considerable reimbursement. Like the military operation / protection action in the state of Bayelsa. The local people of Bayelsa committed sabotage on the oil industry and resisted the Nigerian military. A curfew of several months was the result. This will not create any long term stability. Or another possible problem is the dispute about the oil rich Bakassi peninsula with Cameroon. The dependency of both countries on the export of oil gives this conflict a different dimension. But for both mentioned problems a political solution is the best, cheapest and longest lasting solution.

But considering all factors 1999 will be more stable as in the days of the Abacha regime. The political changes could deliver something for all groups in Nigeria. Even the small tribes in the South, where the oil is found, could be given a proper place in the new political scene of Nigeria. If however their demands are ignored they will return to sabotage to get attention to their problem. And this might be more damaging, politically and economically, than to give them a fair share in the wealth and power of Nigeria.

Cameroon

This country with the special two major languages, English and French, division has achieved some prosperity because of the oil exports. The possession of this wealth seduced the country into debts which should have been avoided. But this can corrected relativily easy. The natural resources has brought economic and social stability in the country. This wealth made it much easier for the government to introduce and maintain a one party president system.

The only external threat is the dispute with Nigeria about the Bakassi peninsula. The oil resources over there will make both sides to insist on maximum demands. An open conflict should and could be avoided as the costs would easily diminish the profits out of a won military conflict.

1999 will see a continuation of the stability, the lower oil revenues could create some problems but a part can be made up by a prudent budget management and by increased sales of other products. The political stability will not be hurt by this short time depression.

Centrafrica

The position of Centrafrica is much more difficult. The economy is underdeveloped and there are regular tensions in the population and the military. The military gets paid unregularly and if it takes to long the military leave their barracks and start to loot the streets. The political stability is dependent on the ups and downs of the economic and social situation.

The one party government could till now survive all popular and even military uprisings. The French military garrison brought money and protection if the situation escalated. The French decision to leave Centrafrica will be a blow for the stability of the country. The Centrafrica government has to be more carefull in the future to survive.

The political, economical and social stability of Centrafrica will decrease in 1999. Without the generous French support the first problem could become the last problem of the government under the leadership of Felix (Ange) Patasse.

Equitoral Guinea

The small country with a number of islands before the coast have been stable in recent times. There is political, economical and social stability. There are no threats identified for the future of the country. 1999 will see a continuation of the 1998 situation.

Gabon

Gabon is a natural resources rich country with oil, gas and uranium. This has brought the population a high level of wealth. The economic stability achieved by the revenues out of the energy export could be stressed in 1999. The low oil prices will limit the spending and investment obligations of the government. The high foreign debts will do its part to squeeze the government budget and this will make the situation even more complicated.

The political and social stability will however not be depressed by the economic problems. The available resources, financial and natural, are still large enough to bridge any shortfall in the revenues in 1999. Gabon will remain in 1999 one of the most stable country of Africa.

Congo-Brazzaville

The situation in Congo – Brazzaville has still not returned to normalcy. The new old president Denis Sassou Nguesso could not pacify the country after the civil war of 1997. Consequently the return of political, economical and social stability has been delayed.

Politically Nguesso has been unable to destroy the remaining forces of former elected president Pascal Lissouba who has the support of the Angolan resistance movement UNITA. Unita fighters are allegedly directly supporting Lissouba’s forces. The position of Nguesso has in the mean time weakened by the diminished Angolan and French support. Politically everything seems to be possible in 1999, but one thing is sure it will bring even more instability.

The economy of Congo – Brazzaville is in very bad shape. The civil war, insurgency, limits economic activities, the low oil price and the high costs of the civil war are destroying any hope on economic improvement in 1999. The civil war, the negative economic prospects and the high number of refugees from Congo – DRC (Kinshasa) is creating a lot of social instability.

Congo – Brazzaville will remain an unstable country in 1999 as no side has the strength to beat the other side. And as long as none of the sides receives considerable outside support the status quo will be maintained. A diplomatic solution is also very unlikely as a compromise is nearly unachieveable.

Congo (DRC)

Congo or better the Democratic Republic of Congo has not seen any improvement in political, economical and social situation in 1998. Things have turned worser instead of better. President Kabila could not render the support of the many peoples in Congo to achieve the stability which would have been necessary to rebuild the country.

The contrary have been true, the country has fallen into two parts. Kabila has alienated his former allies, the Tutsis in Rwanda and Congo and his Ugandan supporters, in his search to unite all Congolese behind his government. To unite the Congolese he dismissed the Tutsis out of the government and the armed forces and he started to support the groups who were against the Tutsis, not only in Congo but also in Rwanda. He estranged the Ugandans by letting anti-Ugandan organisations like the West Nile Liberation Front operate out of Congo.

The Tutsis in Congo, with the support of Rwanda and Uganda, organised themselve and took over the North-Eastern part of Congo. They even airlifted forces to the Western part of Congo and nearly conquered Kinshasa.

The in the beginning very succesfull operation in the Western part of Congo could just be stopped by the intervention of Angolan and Zimbabwan ground and air forces. The remains of the Congolese army, the Angolan and Zimbabwan forces could force back the Tutsis in the Western part. Angola and Zimbabwe intervened out of self interest. Angola to limit the logistic activities of the Unita out of Congo and Zimbabwe to protect the business interests of Zimbabwan companies in Congo.

The military situation in the East was different. The Tutsis with Rwandan and Ugandan support could enlarge their territory even more and moved to the mineral rich South-Eastern parts of Congo. This movement could brought to a standstill by the increased support for Kabila by more Zimbabwan forces and by Namibian, Sudanese and Chadian forces.

The position of Kabila worsened by new resistance movements against his regime. Former prime-minister Bernard Kolelas with his own militia and another militia under the leadership of former Mobuto army general Jean-Pierre Bembe entered the stage. These new organisations complicated the situation even further as it will weaken the position of Kabila.

This could prove the beginning of the end of the Kabila government. The continued good performance of the Tutsi military, the new movements and the lessening interests in the war of the allies of Kabila could undermine his position. Angola will need the forces to combat the Unita at home, Namibia will be worried for a spill-over from the Angola-Unita conflict, Zimbabwe is in economic difficulties and the involvement in the conflict is not popular and the small Sudanese and Chadian contigents have been badly mauled by the Tutsis or rebels.

If the military successes of the rebel forces can not be tempered in a short time, Kabila will loose all support. The refusal to negotiate directly with the rebels will have to change as the possibility to beat the rebel forces is becoming more and more an illusion. A political solution is the only possibility to end the conflict and keep Congo one country. Every other option will most probably mean the dissolution of Congo in two or three parts.

The conflict will destroy any chances on political stability in Congo in 1999. Economical and social stability are in this situation even more difficult to accomplish as some political stability is a pre-condition for the other two.

Uganda

The Uganda government under the leadership of Yoweri Kaguta Museveni had initially created political stability. During that time the economy started to grow at unprecedented levels. The social stability in the Ugandan population increased as the differences between north and south started to diminish.

The political stability has diminshed somewhat by the cruel actions of the LRA, Lord’s Resistance Army, in the north of Uganda. The LRA is a kind of religious party who oppose the Museveni government and want to establish some kind of fundamentalistic state. They receive support from Sudan. Sudan’s interest is to force Uganda to stop supporting the SPLA in Sudan.

Beside the LRA there is another rebel organisation the West Nile Liberation Front who are also opposing the Museveni government. They operate out of the remote and barren Ruwenzori mountain range and out of Congo.

The fight against those two rebel forces does not only limit the political stability but also the economical and social stability. The war against these two oganisations is very expensive and it drains the state’s budget. Especially since Uganda have become involved in the Congo conflict. The involvement stems from the desire to eliminate the rebel forces who have a hide out in the Congo. And as Kabila did nothing to destroy the rebel forces in Congo, the Ugandan government decided to do it themselves.

The Ugandan economy have been hit hard by the conflict and until now they received the advantage of the doubt from the international financial and donation institutions. But they are on the brink of loosing the trust and financial support of those organisations. This would mean even more economical instability. The social stability will also decrease because of the long lasting conflict and the economic hardships.

1999 will be on the border to more or less stability. If the conflicts in Uganda and in Congo can not be solved on the short term than any further involvement will prove to be to expensive. The high costs of the conflict, the loss of international support and the corruption at high level will lead to political, economical and social instability in Uganda.

Kenya

The situation have calmed down somewhat after the tensions before and during the elections. As Kenya does not have any external threats, with the exception of Somalian gangs who cross the border to steal cattle and sometimes raiding farms in the border area, but that is more criminal problem.

All political tensions and instability are home made. The government under the leadership of Daniel Toroitich arap Moi has created political, economical and social instability in the country. The special treatment or better to favour some tribes and persons, have created an unhealthy economical situation and have created grievances with the other parts of the society. The dirty political games played by the government in general and especially at the elections has created political distrust in the population.

The instability will most probably continue in 1999 as the president is forced to keep his political friends, cronies, on his side. This means a continuing of the unhealthy political, economical and social policy, if you can call it policy.

Rwanda

The situation have not improved that much in Rwanda since the end of the guerilla war against the Hutu majority. The Tutsi minority have established itself as the governing party but have not been able to pacify the Hutu community.

The position of the Tutsis have been consolidated as the ruling party but political stability is still not achieved. The Hutu population can only be controlled to a certain extent. The Hutus keep resisting the Tutsi domination by a small scale guerilla warfare. The political situation deteriorates even further if the radical Hutus still living in Congo are considered. The remaining members of the radical Interhamwe movement, who were responsible for the mass murder on Tutsis and moderate Hutus, are now fighting against the Tutsis living in Congo and sometimes they even return to Rwanda for some guerilla actions. They remain the biggest reason of instability for Rwanda.

The Rwandan involvement in the Congo conflict is out of concern for the survival of the Tutsi minority in Congo and for the return and influence of the remainings of the Interhamwe movement. The Rwandan supported operations have been from a military viewpoint succesfull. The threat of the Hutus have lessened but not destroyed.

The economical and social stability have not improved. The high costs of the involvement in the Congo conflict, the unsolved differences with the Hutu majority and the practical existence of two societies, Tutsi and Hutu, have limited economic development and growth and any kind of social cooperation.

As is the case in Uganda, if the Congo problem and integration of Hutus an Tutsis is not solved on the short term the political, economical and social instability will increase in 1999.

Burundi

The political, economical and social stability is under threat in Burundi for a number of years. The Hutus are dissatified with the position they have in Burundi. The Tutsi controlled government could suppress any widespread violence but the Hutus have used and will continue to use guerilla tactics to try to improve their position in the society. The economy has suffered under these political tensions, this can be seen at the low economic growth, high debts and high inflation. The division in the society and bad economic performance, economic instabilty, has created social instability.

The instable condition of the country will go on in 1999. As long as the differences between the two peoples does not improve the overall situation will deteriorate even more in the future. The lifting of the embargo against Burundi, which was installed after the military coup d’etat under the leadership of Pierre Buyoya in 1996, but have been circumvented by Tanzanian and Ugandan businessmenn, should bring some relief to especially the rural population. Political negotiations should bring more results than the embargo. The situation in Burundi will however remain depressed as long as the internal problem is not solved on the short term.

Tanzania

The Tanzanian situation is peculiar. Tanzania is politically and socially stable but the economic stability is under pressure. The economy is suppressed because of the consequences of the socialist policy of the government one to two decades ago. The socialist experiment destroyed not only companies but more important the infra structure and the enterpreneurial capabilities which existed at that time. It will take a number of years to change that and create new capabilities.

Tanzania could stay out of the ethnic problems which destroyed countries like Congo, Rwanda and Burundi. The political, economical and social stability will most probably increase in the future as they can develop without outside interference and internal turmoil. The negative might be new fugitives out of the crisis region. But if politically properly used even this can be used to the advantage of Tanzania. The relief money supplied by the West and the organisations like the UN and UNHCR can used for the help of the refugees but also to the good of the Tanzanian economy.

The Tanzanian economy could receive another boost, as the economies of Kenya and Uganda. The rebirth and rejuvenation of the East African Community could improve the economic situation in the three countries. One large trading area, custom union, with over 100 million people could be created. The possible inclusion of Rwanda, Burundi and possibly the occupied part of Congo would mean new and fabulous possibilities for the economy of the area. The natural resources of Congo could be transported through Mombasa and Dar es Salaam which would boost the trading in the whole area. Especially because of the talks of one currency and passport in the area.

Malawi

Malawi might sometimes look like a isle of tranquility in this instable region. The only problem of Malawi is the weak economy. This leads sometimies to actions of popular discontent but relativily small in scale and short of duration.

1999 will see a continuation of the 1998 situation with moderate political, economical and social stability. An economic downturn could create some discontent, social instability, but nothing that could start political instability which would endanger the country’s democracy.

Zambia

After decades of authoritarian government a new elected government came to power. This government under the leadership of Frederick J.T. Chiluba first seemed a positive move. After an attempt of a coup d’etat the government declared a state of emergency with giving the government sweeping powers. The rules for the elections were afterwards changed that dramatically that all competitors to the sitting government were eliminated as a challenger.

Internally and externally Zambia is a stable country, the government will remain in power and none of its neighbours have a claim or are in the situation to become a threat for Zambia.

This artificial political stability has been holding since and no one seems to be able to change that situation on the short term. The economy which is highly dependent on the export of commodities is only showing a little growth. The people in general are not really dissatisfied with the situation as the economy keeps showing some improvement.

The political, economical and social stability can therefore be maintained in 1999 as no big changes are expected or suitors present to unseat the sitting government.

Angola

The situation in this country ripped apart by an civil war which lasts over two decades has deteriorated even further as the conflict took a fresh start after a two year break. This UN mediated break, cease fire, should have led to peace in Angola. The parties instead choose not to obey the peace treaty and the hawks in each party thought they could win by force. Both sides have in the mean time completed their arsenals with new weapons and ammunition. The goal of the war was not anymore Angola but the expansion and preservation of personal power and wealth, Angola was just a mean to acquire power and wealth. This power and wealth thesis is valid for both parties.

The opponents are the government dominating MPLA, Movimento Popular de Libertaçåo de Angola, under the leadership of Jose Eduardo dos Santos. The MPLA is the former marxistic oriented organisation who controls the capital, a large strip along the coast and the oil rich territory of Cabinda. As the majority of the people were living in this area the MPLA won the elections which were held in Angola after the peace treaty was signed.

The opposition party is the UNITA, National Union for Total Independence of Angola, under the leadership of Jonas Savimbi. The Unita is the more western oriented organisation who controls the majority of the interior of Angola with exception of the bigger towns but including the diamond rich areas of Angola.

According to the peace treaty the Unita should hand over the territories under their control and they should disarm. For that they would get a place in the government, seats, according to the votes, in the parliament and a part of the Unita would be taken over in the MPLA dominated army. The governmental positions were unimportant and without any power. And as they were only the minor party in the elections they would have been demoted to a powerless organisation. As they would further be living in the capital Luanda they would be at the mercy of the MPLA and their whole power and control structure. And the final nail to the power of Unita was the integration of the Unita forces in the army. Only a small part would be taken over, they would receive unimportant positions and would have no chance to promote or play a vital role in the MPLA dominated army.

The MPLA would get the country for nothing. The Unita did not agree with this development in a country were personal power and wealth is the most important factor. Consequently the peace treaty was dead and any promising political, economical and social stability gone with it. In war there is only unstability.

As the MPLA was busy preparing the new offensive against the Unita, closing the logistic support lines in Congo and position their forces to destroy the Unita, Unita did not wait and launched the first spoiling operations. This was followed by military operations in the region around the city of Kuito, an important logistical centre for the MPLA. Unita started even more operations in the provinces of Bie, Huambo, Huila and in the Cazombo salient.

The strategic advantage have been in the hands of Unita and it will take a lot work and blood for the MPLA to recover the lost territory. The policy of Unita is not to hold towns and cities, they only require men and capital to administer. They prefer to stay on the countryside were they are less of a target and more difficult to combat.

1999 could prove to be decisive. The MPLA failed in surprising and overrun the Unita forces. They were better prepared, armed and commanded then the MPLA had expected. This could lead to a bogdown of the operation and the attrition warfare would start. The question is how long can the MPLA continue such an expensive conflict financially with the low oil prices and such high debts which need to be serviced. The MPLA is in need of the diamond regions to support their expensive military. But they are tightly controlled by the Unita. Not only financially the fight will be difficult. The moral and willingness of the MPLA might be lower than expected. This could, in a worst case scenario, mean the end of the MPLA government.

The political stability have been destroyed by the war, the economic and social stability also have been under pressure. The oil prices are low, future oil production sold for weapons, the debts to high and the economic activity reduced by the war. A lot of refugees will be the result of the war which will lead to social instability. 1999 will show how weakened the MPLA government actually is. One thing is certain it is gonna be more expensive than anticipated.

Namibia

This large and sparsely populated but potential rich country country has experienced a slow and succesfull development since the South African mandate or occupation ended. The return to independence has been calm and organised. Political, economical and social stability have been created in Namibia.

The only potential danger is the possible spill over of the conflict in Angola between the MPLA and the Unita into Namibia. This would place immense presure on the small Namibian armed forces.

The military support for the Kabila regime in Sudan could prove to be to much for Namibia if at the same time the Angolan conflict gets serious. The result of the increased pressures would be increased instability in the country.

1999 will deliver more instability, even if the spill over does not happen, the mere threat of violence is enough the create instability. This kind of pressures could be controlled but an actual spill over, which is not stopped in the beginnings, would encourage small and insignificant anti-government groups to exploit the situation. A spiralling process of instability would be initiated which will prove to be difficult to stop.

Botswana

Botswana is one of the stablest countries in the South of Africa. There are no external or internal parties who want to change the government. The economy is in good order, good growth figures and good prospects for the future. Socially, it is one of the ethnically homogenous countries in Africa, this does not mean the absence of differences but it is an advantage, Botswana is very stable. There is no dissatisfaction in the population. The only problem is the high number of HIV infected people but this has not led to social instability.

Botswana will remain in 1999 a stable country, the only problem could be, on the longer term, the negative effects on the economy and the social structure of the country through the HIV infections turning into AIDS and consequently death.

Zimbabwe

The country which is governed by its president Robert Mugabe as its private enterprise is in deep trouble. The involvement in the Congo conflict, the internal political differences and the lagging economy are the reasons for the increased instability in the country.

The elite families of Zimbabwe have become, because of the support of Kabila, involved in several Congolese businesses. As the Congolese rebel forces started to become a threat to the existence of the Kabila regime and more important to the Zimbabwan business interests, Zimbabwe reacted immediately and supported Kabila with military forces. The Congo conflict needed more and more Zimbabwan soldiers and the death rate increased each month.

The already bad performing economy is even more supressed by the high costs of the military support of Congo and the internal policy of president Mugabe towards the white farmers and the veterans of the Rhodesian civil war. The most productive and profitable farms and industries of the country which happened to be owned and managed by the whites still living in Zimbabwe are partly confiscated to allocate land to the poor and landless farmers. A number of confiscated farms ended up in the hands of friends of Mugabe. The minority of the confiscated property was allocated. The small farmers are subsistence farmers which do not deliver any value to the export and national economy.

The other economical mistake are the high pensions and other hand outs to the veterans which are unaffordable to the Zimbabwan budget. Instead of an economic supporting policy the Mugabe government have been creating economic instability and consequently more problems and dissatisfaction.

The impopular involvement in the Congo conflict, the bad economic circumstances and the policy of the government in general are creating social instability. The people in Zimbabwe are disaffected and discontented.

The Zimbabwan government could until now control the situation and maintain political stability. No contender to the position of Mugabe has been strong enough to displace him, yet. But the disaffection is growing. There are rumours of an effort of a number of politicians with a number of higher military officers for a military coup d’etat. This could have been prevented but if large parts of the army get dissatisfied in countries like Zimbabwe, the next endeavour will not be far away.

The political, economical and social instability will increase in 1999. The government will be able to stay in power but more difficult and only if they guarantee the support of the army and with the resort to suppressive measurements.

Moçambique

After decades of civil war Moçambique finally has entered a period of peace. The consequences of the war are however still visible and tangible. The economy is destroyed or disrupted, landmines are all around and the debts are at abnomal levels.

Where as political and social stability has become a fact of life economic stability is just at the beginning. It will take another decade until some real progress will be visible.

1999 will see an improvement of the political, social and especially economical stability. If the world economy will return to boom again and Moçambique receives additional international support and debts restructuring the development will be even better.

Swaziland

This small country between Moçambique and South Africa has been a political, economical and social stable country during the apartheid and civil war period in their neighbouring countries.

The economical and social stability could be maintained only the political stability has come under pressure. Some groups in the country are not satisfied with the current division of power. One group, called the Tigers want to introduce a number of political changes and are prepared to use violence to reach their goals. Several terrorist attacks have been recorded at government officials and the king.

1999 will see a continuation of these terrorist activities which will create more political instability. The recently launched counter insurgency unit can maybe eliminate or at least limit the activities of the Tigers. But the causes of the discontent should be handled too to reach political stability again.

South Africa

The economical and military powerhouse of the sub-Saharan region has shown some weaknesses after the political changes in the country. South Africa will remain the strongest country in the region but the military dominance will be lesser in the coming years because of the reduction in manpower and capabilities and the use of the military to maintain internal security and to combat crime. The planned reequipment and the end of policing roles will return the South African Defence Forces to its former position.

The elected government under the leadership of the ANC, and especially its leader Nelson Mandela, has been able to maintain political, economical and social stability. Admittingly there are a number of problems like the high crime rate, the low commodity prices, the slow down of the economy, the poverty under large parts of the black population and the rising discontent under the black population over the slow changes which could become a threat to the stability of the country, the government could keep them under control.

The real danger in South Africa are the problems between some groups in the society over their political position like the differences between the Zulus and the Xhosa dominated ANC. These problems tend to become violent on local and regional level if there is some kind of real or perceived unfair treatment. It is very important to adress these problems with attention and actions. They easiliy become larger and more dangerous than anticipated.

The level of political, economical and social stability reached in 1998 can be maintained in 1999. A careful government policy to stabilise the overall situation and at the same time stimulate growth and improvement will bring progress for everybody in South Africa.

Lesotho

This small kingdom surrounded by South Africa has experienced political, economical and social instability last year, 1998. The elections of May 1998, were the sitting government of the LCD, Lesotho Congress for Democracy, gained the majority of the seats, have been fraudulent according the opposition under the leadership of the major oppostion party the BCP, Basutoland Congress Party. The result was several actions of civil disobedience to hinder the functioning of the government and the demand of new elections.

An international inquiry into the elections declared that there were inconsistencies but did not state the level of fraude needed to declare the elections invalid. The opposition, BCP, was enraged and cancelled all negotiations with the LCD. Supporters of the BCP took the complaints to the street and made all government actions impossible. The actions of the BCP escalated into anarchy in the capital Maseru. They looted and destroyed everything what was on their way, with support of a part of the small Lesothian armed forces.

The SADC, South African Development Community, decided to stop the anachy in Lesotho and reinstall law and order. A force of the South African Defence Force and some units of the Botswana armed forces moved into Lesotho and after a short but fierce battle the intervention force could take over control.

Law and order are returned in Lesotho and only a small SADC force is still in Lesotho. The political, economical and social instability that cumulated in the recent acts of violence are now being suppressed by force. The instability is still there as long as the bad smell of fraud at the elections is not cleared.

Madagascar

One of the biggest islands of the world is a stable country. There is political, economical and social stability. The negative side of Madagascar is its slow developing economy and the poverty among large groups of people. 1999 will remain the same as last year. Stable but a slow growth of the economy.

Comores Islands

This small group of islands consisting out of three major islands Grand Comore with the capital Moroni, Anjouan and Moheli have come into conflict. The islands of Anjouan and Moheli want secession from the Federal Islamic Republic or better Grand Comore. Anjouan and Moheli are the two economic succesfull islands of the group. The majority of the revenues of the republic are made on the two islands, they have to transfer the largest part of their earnings as taxes to the main island Grand Comore.

As Anjouan and Moheli declared their independence, forces from Grande Comore tried to land on the islands but were beaten by the islands militias. Since the military defeat of Grand Comore the situation is frozen as Grand Comore has no other policy available than diplomacy to convince the islands to stay in the republic.

The stability of the republic as a whole is very low. But Anjouan and Moheli are even with the conflict political, economical and socially stable. On the other hand Grand Comore, which represents and actually is the republic, is destabilised by the conflict. Politically because they lost half of their territory in the republic. Economically because they lost their main source of income. And socially because the economy will deteriorate in 1999, they lost the integrity of the republic and the lost in a battle from the two little islands.

The Middle East

The most volatile region in the world remains the Middle East. Stability in this region is limited to some very small parts and it can be very short in duration.

The Middle East is the region with two fundamentally opposed religions, the jewish and islamic religion. And the islamic religion is divided by interpretation into two large groups, Sunnites and Sjiites, and several other small groups, sects. This religous diversity makes cooperation sometimes very complicated.

The religion is not the only reason for conflict. The several Arab, including the Persians and Turkish, peoples live in national states with each its own interests and expectations. Often the differences are solved by meetings and under the table, shady, solutions but sometimes they get more serious and end up fighting it out.

The future conflict in the Middle East is about something different and much more dangerous. The limited supply of water in this water scarce region, with the exception of Turkey, will make every conflict a case of life and death, and consequently dangerous.

Nearly all countries in the Middle East have an internal and external problems which have an effect on the political stability of the country. The economic stability of the majority of the countries in the Middle East is also negative influenced by the low oilprices and the dependence on the regional and world economy. Finally the social stability is in danger because of the sharp contradictions within the religion. Either you are fundamentalistic or you are an enemy of God. The next countries have been influenced by the above mentioned problems and are part of the Middle East; Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestina, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Jemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrein, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran.

Turkey

One of the two none Arab states in Middle East is Turkey. But history, religion and tradition makes them belong to the Middle East even if they are the gate to and so close to Europe. The Turkish people are rooted in the Arab world and are followers of several of the many directions in the islamic religion.

Turkey has several problems, at least three external and two internal problems which have considerable effect on the political, economical and social stability of the country.

The external problems are two direct and one indirect threat to the interests of Turkey. The first potential area of problems is the exact demarcation of the Aegean Sea and more specifically the extension of the territorial waters which would make Aegean Sea an inland sea, lake, of Greece. The extension would limit the freedom of shipping for Turkey and others who want to travel through the Aegan.

The second potential trouble spot are the relations with Syria. Turkey and Syria have a number differences with eachother. Syria has territorial claim on a part of Turkey, Turkey is allegedly illegally diverting water from the Eufraat river and Syria supports or better has supported the anti-Turkish PKK terrorist organisation.

After the two direct problems there is another indirect trouble area. This problem is linked to the problem with Greece and can be viewed as an extension or even proxy fight with Greece. Turkey is supporting and protecting the minority of Turkish people on the island of Cyprus. The northern Turkish part of the island has with substantial support of Turkey declared their independence from the republic of Cyprus and now have factual their own republic. Only recognized by Turkey. The southern Greco dominated part of the island, with a security pact with Greece proper, resent the declaration and want to nullify the declaration. They want to use diplomacy to convince the northern part to return to the republic. But as usual in these complicated situations both consider the other side as dangerous and agressive. The enlargement or even an improvement of the armed forces could represent a casus belli.

All three external problems could lead to a war. Each of those wars would be very expensive in capital and casualties and could therefore become a major threat to the stability of Turkey. Especially if one considers the fourth problem or first internal problem of Turkey. This problem is already a destabilising factor in Turkey. The activities of the PKK, Partiya Karkaren Kurdistan, or the Kurdistan Workers Party, who want to create an independent Kurdish socialist state in the Turkish territories with a Kurdish majority, are a major threat to Turkey.

The PKK would abuse a possible conflict of Turkey with one of the above mentioned countries and would try to gain back and take over control of the Kurdish territories they recently lost.

The conflict with the PKK has developed into a war with occasional military expeditions into Iraq to destroy bases and support facilities of the PKK. The massive use of military force and the forced relocations of the illoyal Kurdish population out of the area have diminished the abilities of the PKK. The loss of the Syrian support and the bases in Lebanon has weakened the position of the PKK even further. The only sources of income for the PKK are the criminal activities, the levy of taxes, extortions, of Kurdish people in Turkey and western Europe, the trade of illegal substances and weapons and the shipping of people.    The loss of territory in Turkey, the loss of support and the diminished financial resources limit the capabilities of the PKK. Militarily the PKK is disabled. They are no longer in the position to combat the Turkish armed forces or conquer and hold terrain.

As a terrorist organisation with now and then an assault on Turkish facilities and an international political campaign are the only activities of the PKK to continue their battle against Turkey.

The second internal threat is the islamic fundamentalistic organisations who are wanting to change Turkey in a Islamic republic. The have gained support in the population and received power through the ballot box. They even were in government for a while before, on instignation of the all powerfull military, they were removed out of power. This did not eliminate them, they simply continued on a different name. They remain a threat to the secular character of Turkey.

The lagging economy, the expensive military, the islamic fundamentalists and the refusal of entrance in the European Union have had a negative effect on Turkey. The political stability is under threat as no strong government is in command and the many internal and external threats. The economical stability is in danger because of the national and international problems. And the social stability is also under heavy pressure because of the war against the PKK, the division of the population in secular and fundamentalistic and the economic situation which has created a lot of dissatisfaction in the population.

The position of Turkey will not see a substantial improvement in 1999. The military threat of the PKK has been destroyed but the organisation is not eliminated. The islamic fundamentalists will continue to undermine the state, e.g. the secular character of Turkey. And finally the threat from Syria, Cyprus and Greece might be inactive or even dormant but they are still around and could be a casus belli in a very short time.

The political, economical and social stability will be under pressure in this uncertain environment with so many latent and potential problems. But a prudent policy could keep everything under control.

Syria

Syria has been able to maximise its political power in the region. Especially if one considers the Syrian political, economical and social weaknesses. The only bad performance have been against Turkey, when Syria was forced under the pressure of threatening with war to abolish the support of the PKK in Syria and in the Beekaa valley in Syria controlled Lebanon. This shows the weakness of Syria and the impossibility of Syria to enforce its claim on Turkish territory at the moment or in the coming years.

Syria has however been able to exploit its position in Lebanon and against its arch rival Israel. The dominant position of Syria in Lebanon could be maintained and is even stronger because of the problems of Israel to combat the Hizbullah in the Israel controlled security zone in the south of Lebanon. The activities of the Syrian tolerated Hizbullah has been improved in challenging and annoying the Israelis. The Hizbullah have become a real threat to the security of Israel and therefore a welcome support to improve the Syrian position. The enemy of my enemy is my friend scenario.

The Israeli threat to Syria has diminished, the problems with the occupation of southern Lebanon and the wish to achieve peace with Syria with an offered partial withdrawal from the Golan heights have placed Syria in a better position than ever before.

Especially the constellation of Lebanon and the Golan heights have delivered Syria a powerfull bargain tool to achieve maximum demands. This relative position of strength is covering the real position of Syria.

The political stability of Syria is based on the power of the military and especially the secret services. They suppress any potential threat to the government of Syria, the Baath party under the leadership of Hafez al-Asad. As long as no external threat is minimizing the capabilities of the suppression apperatus the government is safe. Therefore a large or even a longer term military conflict with for example Israel constitutes a threat for the regime and should be avoided. A conflict should also be avoided because of the worse condition of a lot of the equipment of the Syrian armed forces.

The economical stability is closely connected to the political stability. If the ruling government remains in power some economic activities are assured. But this government is at the same time limiting economic development out of the fear to loose control. The drop in oil prices has also hurted Syria. The high costs of the large military has been a pressure on the budget which have shown in recent years high deficits. The overall economic situation is depressed and this could lead to economical instability.

The social stability is under the same pressures as the political and economical stability. As long as the security system can suppress the wishes of the people nothing will happen. The discomfort about the depressed economic situation can also be controlled as long as the security apperatus is in place. No one will try to challenge the power of the government, it is deadly.

The situation will remain the same in 1999. The excellent security system will suppress any possible uproar. A conflict should be avoided but an international success like the return of the Golan would be very beneficial for the government. There can be some kind of artificial political, economical and social stability in Syria in 1999. The sort of supported and controlled by the security services.

Lebanon

Lebanon is finally experiencing some stability after many years of civil war. With the exception ofcourse of southern Lebanon which is occupied by Israel.

The Syrian dominated part of Lebanon has shown considerable improvement in the recent years. The neo-colonial embrace of Lebanon by Syria has delivered peace and political stability in Lebanon. The country could begin to rebuild the country after decades of internal conflicts. The political stability allows the economy to be productive again. This has created social stability as the people are not suppressed anymore by war and internal strive.

The several militias, for example the AMAL, have been partly disarmed and partly integrated in mixed companies in the new Lebanese army. The remaining part is used as a security enterprise to protect houses and facilities of VIPs and the party. The leaders of the militias moved to parliament to make politics.

1999 will show a continuation of the reconstruction of Lebanon. The Syrian influence will be present but to a lesser extent than before because the Lebanese government will become more self confident and Syria’s interest are in the south. Mainly to observe the activities of Israel in the southern part of Lebanon. The continuation of the political development process will consequently increase the economical and social stability of Lebanon, with the exception of the southern part.

The southern part of Lebanon is occupied by Israel and with the support of the South Lebanese Army used as a security zone to protect Israel. This illegal occupation is fiercely combatted by the fundamentalistic islamic Hizbullah organisation. With assaults on the South Lebanese Army, the Israeli Defence Forces and Israel proper the Hizbullah is limiting the movement of the armed forces and is directly threatening the safety of Israel. Retaliations from Israel on Lebanese or Hizbullah targets, especially civilian targets, are responded by the Hizbullah with missile atacks on Israel.

The barren and very lightly populated security zone has become the operation territory of the Hizbullah. They limit the movement of the IDF and SLA and are slowly weakening their military capabilities.

This low intensity warfare have been damaging on the IDF and SLA. The conflict has also created instability in the southern part of Lebanon. The political stability is contested by the operations of the Hizbullah. The economical stability is non existent because of the destruction in the war. And social stability is under threat from the military actions and retaliations of the IDF.

This instability on all levels will continue as long the Israel is occupying the southern part of Lebanon. Only a withdrawal and some cooperation could end the instability in this border region.

Israel

The position of Israel is weaker than ever before. Militarily they are the superpower of the region. All their neighbours together do not possess an equal military force in equipment and capabilities. Politically things are different, the policy of president Netanyahu, security first, has undermined not only the political position of Israel in the region and the world but also the safety of the country. The policy of delaying and one sided changes in the Oslo accords for the sake of security has created the opposite of what was wanted, more insecurity.

The political stability has been undermined by the machinations in the Knesset, parliament, and the policy of the Netanyahu government. The wishes of small parties and the interests of groups like the colonists are served but the majority has to accept all demands to keep the government in power. Or better Netanyahu. The political position of Israel has become unreliable. The economy deteriorated under this government and the Asia crisis destroyed all hopes for a recovery on the short term. The resulted economical instability led to social instability. The people got dissatisfied because of the unemployment, rising costs, the worse prospects and the fundamentalistic organisations, the orthodox jews, who are forcing the entire society to live according their rules and traditions. Israel is developing itself towards a divided and segregated society with three major groups; the secular jews, the orthodox jews and the colonists who are a both of the former two groups and dreaming about a greater Israel, Eretz Israel.

The international position of Israel is also weakened. Israel will be seen as an unreliable partner in future negotiations because the recent political wheelings and dealings. The solution of the Palestine case, the pacifying of the Palestinians in the occupied territories, Gaza and the West bank, and the Palestinians living abroad in Lebanon, Jordan and the rest of the world will not become any closer or easier. The differences between Israel and the PNA, Palestine National Authority, will become larger because of the Israelian opposition to the execution of the Oslo accords.

The proclamation of a Palestine state, without any influence of Israel, is coming to be more likely. A military reaction on the proclamation is relativily easy to execute but the following intifada, uproar, of civilians against the IDF will prove to be impossible to suppress if the IDF does not want to resort to massacres of large parts of the Palestinian population in the occupied territories. The international rejection of such a military operation will make even Israels best friend the U.S.A. think twice before helping Israel.

The Palestinian case is the most dangerous of the problems of Israel. Military they are no adversary but political they have come on to nearly the same level.

The other problem of Israel is Syria, or better a peace treaty with Syria which would mean to have peace treaties with all neighbours. The Syrian demand for the return of the Golan heights as precondition for any negotiations is unacceptable for Israel. An withdrawal, partial withdrawal, the demilitarisation and the disconnection with the solution of the withdrawal out of southern Lebanon is for Syria unacceptable.

Out of a military and political viewpoint Syria cannot become a threat to Israel. The military forces of Syria are not in a condition to start a war nor are they able to have a slightest chance of success against the IDF. A war would be dangerous for the Syrian government of Asad if it would not be successfull or take longer than a couple of weeks. A political solution is the best Syria can achieve. The status quo on the conditions will however forestall any negotiations.

The last problem of Israel is the occupation of southern Lebanon. The socalled security zone has become a nightmare. The operations of the Hizbullah against the IDF and SLA have become very successfull. The IDF and SLA are forced to station their forces on strongpoints which can be attacked by missile and mortar fire. The greatest dangers are however the ambushes of patrolling units and the improved measurements and counterattacks against the infiltration or assignments of IDF special forces units. Several casualties have been recorded in those operations. The rise in casualties is not acceptable for the Israeli population and has given reason to complain about the stationing of forces in Southern Lebenon. Especially as the security zone have proven to be unable to stop missile attacks on Israeli settlements after retaliation bomb raids on Hizbullah positions.

The withdrawal, without guarantees from the Lebanese government and / or Syria, is considered to be dangerous as the Hizbullah would be able to operate even closer and with more safety in the border region. The Israeli government does not trust the Hizbullah statements that they are only fighting for the liberation of southern Lebanon. The Israeli government assumes a double agenda of the Hizbullah, the removal of Israel out of the region.

The complicated situation of military dominance and political incompetence will continue in 1999. The elections for a new parliament will not stimulate the peace process if the same coalition assumes power. A broad coalition of moderate parties would be the only possibility to restart the peace process but that is probably unattainable.

The illusion of total security will forestall any approachment to the Palestinians. Total security is unattainable because one idiot of the Hamas, Hizbullah, or other islamic or Jewish extremist group can always come through and make a high profile bomb assault on a large group of people. To sacrifice a general peace agreement for an illusion might get very expensive on the long term.

Political, economical and social instability will increase in Israel in 1999 as no solution is found to eliminate the problems with the Palestinians, the Syrians and in Lebanon. On the positive side Israel has no potential enemies in the region who can become a direct military threat to Israel in 1999. The only enemy of Israel is Israel.

Any speculations about the potential development and possession of NBC weapons with long range missiles in the inventories of Iran and Iraq are irrelevant. It will take another three to four years before the most advanced of the two, Iran, can field an operable system in quantity. But even when they do so, use them is a different question. If they possess them they will have to work according the policy of Mutual Assured Destruction. Any use will mean the retaliation of Israel with their 100 + Jericho II nuclear armed missiles. The result will be the end of each of those regimes, a large part of the population and the destruction of the holy places. And finally Israel’s Anti Ballistic Missile capabilities are increasing every year. Improved Patriot PAC III and the Arrow missile systems and the Nautilus laser system.

Palestine

The peace process and the Oslo accords gave the Palestinian people some territory were they could govern themselves. The Gaza strip and a couple of towns on the West bank were placed under a kind of Palestinian government. The PLO became the main political party and their leader Yassir Arafat the leader of the socalled PNA, Palestinian National Authority.

The Oslo accords were not executed as they should as the new Israeli government under Netanyahu wanted first more security measurements of the PNA before they could continue with the execution. To complicate the situation even more, several other delays and new demands were introduced. This brought the peace process to a virtual standstill.

The political relations with Israel and a number of internal shortcomings created political instability in the territories of the PNA. The PLO and the ministers of the Arafat government were hardly fair politicians. Corruption, nepotism, unclear hierarchies and incompetency in the government are widespread. This political instability fostered economical instability. The incompetent government and the Israelian refusal to support or at least not to hinder the economic activities destroyed the economy in the territories under PNA control. The poor performance of the economy stimulated unemployment and personal misery in the PNA territories. This all led to economical and social instability in large parts of the Palestinian society.

The opponents to the peace accords, like the Hamas, were the main benificiaries of the instability in the PNA territories. The Hamas gained substantial support because of the misery in the society. They even stimulated the instability by a number of assaults on Israelian targets. The Israeli reaction on an assault created even more misery in the PNA territories. A vicious circle started with no escape possibility in the present political climate.

The political, economical and social instability will not diminish in 1999. The problems and instability are likely to rise because of the standstill in the peace process and the activities of the Hamas and the extremists in Israel. The only advantages are the improved relations of the PLO / PNA to the west and especially the U.S.A. In any future negotiations this could lead to some political and economical support.

Jordan

The kingdom of Jordan is probably at the moment one of the more stable countries in the Middle East. There are a number of problems in Jordan but some improvement have become visible in recent years.

Jordan has been hit hard by the second Gulf War as they first supported Iraq. Because of that support they lost important donations form the oil and capital rich Gulf region. The Jordanian economy was, because of the war and the U.N. embargo, badly hit by the loss of trade with Iraq. The economy got another big blow after the oilprices started to fall and approached new historic lows.

In recent years this have changed somewhat by an increased trade with Israel and other nations in the world. Some grey or black trade with Iraq and better relations with the west also supported the recovery of the economy. As the economy improved the economical stability started to increase. But we must not forget that Jordan is still one of the poorest countries in the region and every improvement seems larger than it actually is.

The political stability in Jordan could be maintained by a carefull policy of the king of Jordan, Husein I ibn Talal Al Hashemi. Husein could create an equilibrium between the large group of Palestinians and the original Bedioun population in Jordan. All people living in Jordan are satisfied with the king and his rule. King Husein is a kind of integrating force in Jordan with very good national and international relations. This made him a isle of stability in this violent region.

The economical problems created poverty but because of the family support structure grave situations of poverty and hunger could be avoided. This has created social stability in the kingdom and gave people the opportunity to weather out any bad periods.

Jordan will be able to improve the political, economical and social stability in 1999. The economic recovery will continue, certainly if the Iraqi embargo will be lifted in the future. An improved economy will lead to an improved social stability. And finally the political stability will also increase as the king will remain in power and is seen as an important stabilising factor in this volatile region.

Saudi Arabia

The large and oil rich country with probably the largest proven oilreserves have been stable in the last decade. The oilwealth could buyout most of the tensions in and outside Saudi Arabia. But Saudi Arabia was and is not a troublefree paradise.

The second Gulfwar have been the main and first really threatening situation. Even if Iraq never contemplated to invade Saudi Arabia, the thought of it was frightening enough. Old, dormant or other present problems looked much more dangerous than before.

The situation is however more or less stable. There are no threats which could lead to a change of power in Saudi Arabia. There are only a couple of minor problems which can be controlled.

The falling oil prices have been very bad for the economy, the budget had to be scaled down. Some large projects, civilian and military, had to be postponed or even cancelled. The important social, educational and medical programmes remained working. The economy have been badly hit by the drop in revenues. The economical stability of Saudi Arabia could be maintained as prudent policy, budget cuts and the large financial reserves could evade a damaging impact on the economy.

The preservation of the social programmes could forestall any negative consequences out of the economic downturn for the population. Social stability could therefore be maintained.

The political stability is closely connected to the economic and social stability in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is still a clan society. If some people are in trouble, the whole clan will have problems. This automatically has an impact on the political stability. The government has therefore to keep everybody as satisfied as possible.

The only point of disagreement between the government and some clan members is the presence of U.S. military forces, infidels, in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a holy country and the protector of two of the holiest places in the islamic world. As such the U.S. forces could be seen as unwished intruders.

The external problem of Saudi Arabia is about the exact demarcation of the border between the Saudi Arabia and Yemen. As large deposits are expected in the border region it is worthwhile to dispute about the correct borderline. The Saudi Arabian government has been fuelling dissatisfaction between several clans and the government in Yemen. They support some clans in Yemen to weaken and distract the government in Sanaa from the border problem.

Saudi Arabia will remain one of the most stable countries in the Gulf region. The financial resources, the increased defensibility of the government and the fundamentalistic islamic character of the country will maintain overall stability in 1999. The depressed economy will improve again. The unwished U.S forces are stationed in remote desert bases and do not have an influence on the society. And the problem with Yemen can be solved by negotiations even if the tension between the two sides will continue this year.

There is only one event which could spoil the stability in Saudi Arabia. Which for the sake of the country will hopefully not happen in the coming years. The illnes of king Fahd bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud could deteriorate further and the question of succession and the installment of crown prince Abdallah bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud could seduce radical elements in and outside Saudi Arabia to create chaos.

Yemen

The situation in Yemen is less stable. The government in Yemen is facing numerous problems which pose an obstacle to political, economical and social stability.

The political stability is undermined by the psychological division between the population of former north and south Yemen and the traditional clan structure in all of Yemen. These two problems are also signs of social instability. The north is more islamic fundamentalistic and the south more open to world and western ideas. The unification is thereby still not accepted as became overtly clear in the recent fightings between the north and south.

The traditional clan structure undermines the position of the government. The loyalty and the interests are with the clan and not Yemen. The clans use and even blackmail the government to receive money, infra structure projects and even positions in the government. But they do not really accept the government as the legal authority in the country. They live, think and work in the clan.

Beside the internal problems Yemen has a dispute with Saudi Arabia about the exact demarcation on the border as mentioned in the chapter about Saudi Arabia.

The economic stability is also undermined. The revenues out of the oil industry have declined because of the low oil prices. The demands from the several clans and their actions undermine the economic activities and growth of Yemen. And the problems between north and south have also been a limit for the economy.

The political, economical and social instability have a had negative effect on the development in Yemen. This instability will be at best remain the same but more likely it will increase. 1999 will remain instable. The government is not in a position and does not have the capabilities to change this on the short term.

Oman

One of the most stable country in the region has been able not to get involved in the many problems in the region. Located at the entrance of the volatile Persian Gulf it has been able not to annoy a country in the region.

Under the leadership of sultan Qaboos bin Sa’id Oman could develop itself to a prosperous country. A prudent policy of opening the country and widen the economic base with the support of the limited energy reserves available to Oman generated a balanced economic growth. The population have gotten educated without severance of its own traditions and culture. The economic base have gotten less dependent on the revenues of energy export.

Political, economical and social stability have been achieved. This stability will increase in 1999 as all factors look promising for Oman.

United Arab Emirates

The federation of seven emirates have been a success story. The seven could develop themselve into one of the most successfull economic entities. The oil and gas industry remains the most important industry in the economy but other sectors are being developed and supported. The large holdings of international investments also deliver a positive effect to the developemt of the economy.

The political and social stability could be increased in each of the emirates. There are no big threats to the rulers of each of the emirates. The population is satisfied with the rule of the leaders of the emirates and the advantages of belonging to the federation.

The only external dispute is with Iran about two small islands in the Persian Gulf. Both countries have a claim on the islands and Iran has occupied and militarised them. The problem is controllable and can be solved by diplomacy if the need arises. A military conflict over the islands is unlikely but the United Arab Emirates would be able to give Iran a hard fight and could even win. The recent military acquisitions would give the U.A.E. a technological edge over the naval and air forces of Iran.

The situation will remain the same in 1999. The political, economical and social stability can be maintained in the U.A.E. There is no direct threat to the stability of the U.A.E. Even the lower oil prices can only be a nuisance to the U.A.E. considered the other parts of their economy, including the international investments.

Qatar

This wealthy emirate have been less stable than its neighbour the U.A.E. Qatar is more dependent on the revenues of the export of the energy resources. The low prices have hurt their budget. This has created some instablity as it has become more difficult to solve internal problems with money.

Qatar is socially less stable than the other countries in the region. The composition of the population, Sunnites and Sjiites, create tensions and even sometimes a small uproar of the Sjiites who want more influence in the running of the country.

Politically, the ruling government is stable. The Sjiite moniority will not be capable to unseat the government. But they can make more problems than they are actually worth. They should be reckoned with as a dangerous factor in Qatarian politics.

The instability will continue in 1999. The government will not be able to solve the problems and lessen the discontent in some parts of the population. Any political changes are however not expected in 1999.

Bahrain

One of the smallest countries in the Persian Gulf and with just little energy reserves has been more or less stable. Politically the government is strong and not contended by other groups in the society. There are sometims differences with its neighbours about the demarcation of the border but nothing dramatic. All problems can and could be solved by diplomacy. As the leading thought behind Bahreinian policy is to have good relations with all neighbours.

The economy is less dependent on energy and more on trade. The drop in the prices of energy have been bad for trade. Consequently the economy of Bahrain has been equally hit as the energy depended countries.

Social stability could be maintained in Bahrain. The differences between the several groups in Bahrein has been less agressive than in Qatar. There are some small groups which are opposing the government policy and are favouring a more fundamentalistic policy. They are however small and marginalised in the society. The majority of the society are aware that Bahrain depends on good relations with eachother to trade.

Political and social stability can be maintained in 1999. The economical stability will however only show improvement as the prices of oil and gas increase. This will increase trade and consequently the economy of Bahrein. The dependency on trade will make the cooperation or cohabitation last in the future. This will be a guarantee for social stability. Even the U.S. forces in Bahrain are accepted. Maybe not loved but the U.S. is considered as beneficial for the economy of Bahrain. And after all conflict is very bad for a traders nation.

Kuwait

The situation in oil rich Kuwait has stabilised some what. After the ejection of Iraq out of Kuwait the reconstruction process has cleared the majority of the war damages. The occupation during the second Gulf war is only a bad memory. The real threat is the survival of Saddam Husein as the leader of Iraq, with still very large ambitions.

The political situation in Kuwait is stable as far as that there are no groups in the society who want to change the government by the use of violence. The political instability is about a parliament which want to have more influence in the policy of Kuwait. They want to realise the after the second Gulf war granted democratic rights.

The head of State, Sheikh Jabir al-Ahmad al-Jabir al-Sabah, would like it more to continue to govern in the old style. A parliament of people who are advising him and agreeing in everything he decides.

This will lead to some political instability, as both groups will continue to try to enlarge or to limit the power they have. A certain confusion will be created about who is doing what.

The economy of Kuwait has been hurt by the second Gulf war and the consecutive drops in the oil price after the war. The destroyed installations and industrial property has limited the economic growth. The loss of revenue because of the low oil price forestalled any investments in new and promising industries in the country. Everything had to be used to repair the war damages.

The social stability reached quickly the old levels of before the war. This could be maintained as at first the people have gotten power which was used to be in the hand of the royal family. Second, the reconstruction of the country created a new kind of bound between the Kuwaiti’s. And third, the basic government service for free, like medical care, education and housing, could be maintained. Even in these difficult times. Other programmes were postponed of cancelled to support the social programmes. The social stability could be maintained as a large part of the old situation could be reinstated again.

The political. economical and social stability are likely to increase in 1999. The reconstruction phase has still not ended, some small things have to be finished, like the rebuild of some new industrial capacities and a functioning state system.. These will increase the overall stability in the country. The only problem of Kuwait is the uncertainty about Iraq. The ambition of Iraq to annex Kuwait is still as valid as during the second Gulf war. The international support, especially the capabilities of the U.S. armed forces, will refrain Iraq from any activities towards Kuwait. Iraq will remain a potential threat and this demands an active attitude of Kuwait. This will mean higher military prepardness for Kuwait. This will be more expensive than the military of before the war.

This could have a negative effect on the economy if the price of oil remains that depressed. A little more political and economical instability are possible if a worst case scenario would happen.

Iraq

The position of Iraq is deplorable, the government under the leadership of Saddam Hussein has been limited in its freedom of movement since the defeat in the second Gulf war. The economical and social situation is equally bad.

The limited movement of Iraq is national and international. The internal, national, limits are about movements of aircraft in the no-fly zones in the north, above the 36 degree line, and south, under the 33 degree line, of Iraq and about the production of armements, especially weapons of mass destruction. The international limit is the international, UN, embargo on trade with Iraq, with the exception of the oil for food deals, to make Iraq obey the UN resolutions. The UN resolutions were initiated after the second Gulf war to prevent Iraq acquiring weapons of mass destruction and other armements and to make them to pay for the damages in Kuwait.

Stability is in Iraq a misnomer, you can talk about a kind of artificial stability. As long as the security services, the Special Republican Guard and the Republican Guard are in power and supporting Saddam Hussein this artificial stability can be maintained. The system of suppression and elimination of all possible enemies or conspirators against the state will destroy any possibility of toppling Saddam Hussein. The political stability is in that definition very stable.

All surviving political enemies are therefore living abroad, with the exception of the Kurdish people in the north and a number of Sjiites marsh Arabs in the south. There are a number of oppostion groups against Saddam. The majority of them are one man shows or maybe a few men shows operating from London, Amman, Cairo and so on. They are not important and certainly not able to become a threat to Saddam.

One of the larger groups is the INC, Iraqi National Congress, under the leadership of Ahmad Chalaby. The INC is trying to unite the several opposition groups. The INC has a good relationship with the U.S.A. and will most probably receive support from the U.S.A. including a large part from the $ 97 million furnished by the U.S. Congress through the Iraq Liberation Act.

The groups with a large presence in Iraq are the Iranian supported Kurdish PUK of Jalal Talibani, the Kurdish KDP of Massoud Barzani and the Iranian backed Sjiite organisation SCIRI of Ayatollah Mohammed Baqr al-Hakim. These three could also receive U.S. support. But to get the support they have to accept the demands of human rights, friendly relations with all neighbours and territorial integrity of Iraq.

The PUK will probably accept U.S. support if it would be advantageous to reach their goal. The KDP could also accept as their rethoric is moving from pro-Saddam to opposition. But the KDP still does not trust the U.S. after they felt cheated in the last support action of the U.S.A. The SCIRI will not accept U.S. support as they consider it as a foreign intervention in Iraqi affairs and because of the strong Iranian support they receive.

The INC, PUK, KDP and SCIRI could become a threat to the regime of Saddam Hussein if, a big if, they would cooperate and even more important if the security apperatus would show some weaknesses. All operations of the PUK, KDP and SCIRI have been until now suppressed with great force and cruelty by the Iraqi security forces.

The economy is in a very bad condition. The industrial capacities of Iraq have been largely destroyed in the second Gulf war. This includes the all important oil industry. A large number of riggs and pumps are out of functioning and need repairs or replacement. A large part of the industry has not been rebuild after the war as spare parts and new equipment were not available. The embargo destroyed any chance to rebuild the industry. The economical stability is therefore non-existent, Iraq is for a large part dependent on the black market and smuggling. The political elite, Saddam and his friends, have become very wealthy by the existence of the black market. The illegal activities are supported and protected by the elite.

The real victims of the second Gulf war and the embargo is the population. This divided popuplation of Sunnites, Sjiites, Kurdish people and a few Christians are sometimes fighting eachother and are all suffering from the Saddam regime. Unemployment, poverty, diseases and hunger are common under a large part of the population. Social instability have become the normal situation for the majority of the people in Iraq.

The political, economical and social stability, or better instability, will remain the same, or non-existent if you will, in 1999. Saddam Hussein will remain in power and the population will be suppressed and suffer under his rule. As will be the foreign policy of Iraq, the defeat and embargo are just an interruption in the execution of the masterplan of Saddam for the region.

The activities of the west to stop the development of weapons of mass destruction and advanced weaponry will not have any success. The west will be unable to stop the development if they do not want to move in with ground forces. The inspector teams and the air assaults can not really hurt Iraq as they can not hit every important target and they can not go on for ever. The only way to create a change in Iraq is by replacing Saddam Hussein and his friends and allies in the Baath party and the security apperatus. An additional advantage of the removal of Saddam would be the relieve of the threat against Kuwait. As Saddam will not have forget Kuwait, he might have disavowed any claim on Kuwait, his thinking will be different.

Iran

Iran, the former Persia, does not really belong to the Arab world as they are Persians and nearly the whole population are Sjiites where as the other Arab countries have a population of a majority of Sunnites. This have already created a big division in the region and the results could have been experienced as Iran is supporting fundamentalistic organisations all over the world, including the Arab and islamic world. The goal of this support is to spread the islamic religion, the fundamentalistic and Sjiite version preferred, all over the region and world. This has created some tensions in the world as their support is not only for peacefull religious oganisations but sometimes also for terrorist groups.

This religious policy has created instability in a lot of countries and has made Iran more enemies than friends. This religious policy of fundamentalism has even created instability in Iran. The recent elections in Iran have brought forward a new president, the more liberal, liberal in the islamic definition of the word, Muhammad Khatami. Khatami proposes a more free society, ofcourse within the rules of the Koran, and reconciliation with the west and the U.S.A. The election of Khatami has created a division in the Iranian society and consequently political instability.

This liberalisation is already a step to far for the conservatives in Iran. The conservatives under the leadership of Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, which also happens to be the spiritual leader of Iran, are doing everything to limit the power and actions of president Khatami.

The opposition of Khamanei as spiritual leader will make life for the government of Khatami very difficult. Khatami has to be very carefull in his decisions. The spiritual leader is the most powerfull person in Iran as he rules by divine law and has the final word in all affairs in the country and the religion.

The government of Khatami is undermined where ever possible. A large part of the administration is still manned by conservatives so the conservative opposition have an important ally within the government. They deliver information and delay the execution of policy which is not according the ideas of the conservatives. The Khatami government is further undermined by the arrests of people, even ministers and mayors, who favour his policies. The closing of newspapers, publishers, who are to liberal in their writing. And even the physical intimidation, including the murder, of people who support Khatami or think in the same catagories as Khatami.

President Khatami himself is not treatened in that way as he is much to popular. A large part of the population is supporting him. This describes the division and instability of the politics in Iran. The liberals versus the conservatives in fundamentalistic Iran.

The economy is also destabilised. The economy is showing a negative growth, the industry is lagging behind in the world in productivity and product quality, the all important oil industry needs the support of international companies and as with every oil dependent country in this region, the revenues are dropping below the lowest expectations. The budget was planned with 16 to 18 dollar a barrel and they receive 10 dollar a barrel.

The low revenues in the budget are in the same time loaded with the high costs of the promotion of the national industry and the high expenses of the military. The military is spending a lot of money on product improvement, acquisitions of Russian and Chinese equipment and also the creation of a national defence industry. At the same time large military training operations are held at the border of Afghanistan and in the Gulf region. To warn respectivily the Taliban government in Afghanistan and the U.S.A. in the Persian Gulf.

The political problems are creating uncertainty and fear in the population. The economical problems are responsible for higher unemployment and poverty in the Iranian society. This political and economical situation has created social instability.

The external political problems are only deteriorating the general situation. The religious policy have delivered Iran with a number of enemies. The relations with Irak and Afghanistan are strained. Iran is in both countries supporting oppostion parties. The unnecessary differences with the U.S.A. isolate the Iranian economy and the less dangerous potential conflict with the United Arab Emirates will most probably not lead to an armed conflict but is simply bad P.R.

The political, economical and social instability will not decrease in 1999. The instability will more likely increase as the differences widen and the problems get worser. It will take a different policy and fortune to escape the downward spiral of political problems, economic depression and social disintegration.