Tagarchief: Al Qaeda

November 2001

November 2001

November 2001

Fighting Terrorism

Terrorism

The acts of aggression of a generally small group of people who want to make a statement about in their opinion an unjust situation are mostly defined as terrorism. The act has to be visible and is mostly pretty bloody to get as much attention as possible. All to often innocent bystanders, civilians, are the victims as government officials are more difficult to get and the impact would not have been that dramatic.

Terror organizations, no matter their scale, are all to often difficult to eliminate as they present a subgroup with their own culture and values. If they are used to work covertly the members will be unknown. This is especially true if the organization has been forced to operate underground as the group was considered hostile and dangerous to the society or better the government in charge. The existing members from the early period will be known but new recruits, people, will be unknown and will only become visible if caught after an attack.

The organization of terrorist groups

There a large number of terrorist groups in the world. Many countries have been hit by the actions of those groups. The terrorist group is the first stage of a rebellion against the sitting government and if the terrorist group becomes larger and the ideas find widespread following and acceptance in the population the next stage of taking over power can be started.

The majority of terrorist groups work according the principle of Lenin of an advanced guard who is fighting the suppressive government with all means at their disposition. The group has to be very secretive to avoid being detected and eliminated.

To be that secretive the majority of the terrorists work out of a cell structure with numerous cells working throughout a country, or for that matter all over the world, with the goal of undermining the government. Every cell is doing that what is supposed to be beneficial to the group’s cause. And the strength of the cell structure is that no one knows to much of other cells and the structure of the organization making infiltration and eliminating the terrorist group more difficult and time consuming. The cell leader knows one member of one other cell but nobody knows about the whole group, or better the structure/organization of a terrorist group. There are essentially two kind of operations, they can be local and/or executed by one cell without other parts of the organization having any knowledge of the act being planned or who did it until the act is claimed. Even the leadership can have no knowledge of the act being planned and would only be informed if the act is executed or just before execution.

Or the operation is carefully planned and executed by the leadership with one or more cells supporting the execution often without knowing what each person and each cell is doing. The common procedure is that one group, cell, is doing intelligence work about a project, an other group, cell is preparing places to stay and transport at the location, an other group, cell, is responsible for the delivery of the weapons and explosives and finally an other group, cell, is responsible for the attack. With this construction only the last group will be informed about what and when to attack, making an interception much more difficult. All other groups are only supporting and they do not know much because they do it more often without that something happens, it happens at a much later moment or it is considered not worthwhile by the leadership.

The second kind of operation is the most dangerous as it is planned and executed by professionals and is therefore more effective and more difficult to end and eliminate. Security is at all times maintained, information is gathered about several objects without any certainty that the object will become a target for an attack. Houses and cars are leased and bought more often even as an investment opportunity. Weapon storages are created also more often for possible later use and several small storages are more difficult to eliminate than a couple of large storages.

The picture gets even more dangerous as different terrorist groups in the world, with all different and little to non common interests occasionally meet, co-operate and support each other. This co-operation is out of the need that all are operating against a mostly more powerful opponent, e.g. a government of a country, Through the rule of interdependency between the nations of the world, countries in the world co-operate and so do the terrorist groups. Weaknesses can be improved and modus of operandi can be exchanged to improve the fight against the opponnent.

The communication within the group and between different groups is face to face or through covert means like the internet. The internet with websites and chatboxes offer many opportunities to hide and exchange information between members of the group and between groups. Telephone, fax and e-mail messages are prone to being intercepted by the security services around the world and it makes the identification and location of the people messaging each other more likely.

The elimination of terrorist groups

Terrorist groups are difficult to eliminate as they are covering themselve and use all methods available to evade being captured. If the terrorist groups belong to a non-western culture the identification and capture of the group will become even more difficult.

The apprehension of a terrorist group is a time consuming affair as getting information on a group is difficult and capturing one person or even a couple of cells will not damage the group that much. The elimination of terrorist groups is a long and structured process, you must identify the group, its goals, the structure, the operation methods and the relations outside the group. The creation of such a profile is possible by signal intelligence, SIGINT, communications intelligence, COMINT and of course human intelligence, HUMINT. SIGINT and COMINT are possible without that much difficulty. Both are in the preparation of the profile very helpful. To get more delicate information on for example structure and methods HUMINT will be necessary. HUMINT can deliver the information needed to eliminate a terrorist group.

The placing of covert operatives in terrorist organizations is however a dangerous, difficult and time consuming affair as the operative has first to enter the group and subsequently has to work his way up the hierarchy in a group.

To enter a group is already difficult as most groups are relatively small, paranoid and mostly know eachother or their families from the region of origin. Especially the non western groups are very incrowd and some relation between the members is present from the beginning.

The operative has to come from the same group to be succesfull and be given time, freedom and support to enter the group. Any pressures to deliver information quickly could be damaging to his position.

If a complete group profile is created the group can be eliminated and the majority of cells can be arrested. This however is not enough as the cause of terrorism has to be eliminated. The causes are mostly in some perceived or actual unfair treatment or situation of a given group of people. This situation must be changed to forego a resurrection of a same kind of group.

The elimination of terror is a case of a political, economical and law enforcement solution. Those three are able to eliminate the causes and the consequences of terrorism. Everything less will only be a part solution.

Afghanistan 2001

The case of the Al Qaeda is an example of the difficulties in defeating terrorism. The Al Qaeda is a highly capable organization with a firm base and an extensive network of cells and with many relations to other terrorist organizations. The Al Qaeda is even more difficult to defeat as it receives the support of a country, Afghanistan.

The situation in Afghanistan is very difficult and dangerous as a country, the dominating group in a country, the Taliban, is actively protecting and supporting terrorist organizations. Or of course in the view of the Taliban, people with the same ideas who fight the unjust treatment of muslims in the world. And as always it just takes a little to perceive a bad treatment. And the Taliban have a missionary conviction, they want to share the faith with as many people as possible.

The Taliban is protecting the Al Qaeda organization led by Osama bin Laden which is supporting and guiding many other muslim organizations in the world. The information on the Al Qaeda is rudimentary as it could operate for a long time without to much control with support of in the first place the Taliban but also with covert support from many fundamentalistic social/relief organizations in Arab and muslim countries.

The Al Qaeda received more attention from the intelligence community in the world as the attacks which were supported by the Al Qaeda became more intensive and the scale of the network of the Al Qaeda became visible. Not withstanding the large scale of the Al Qaeda they became really known, targeted and tracked after the 11 September 2001 attack on the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

The 11 September was the turning point for the Al Quada, before they could live in a protected environment in Afghanistan and with no much opposition from the Arab and muslim world. Afterwards the Arab and muslim countries had to choose a side.

The Taliban and Afghanistan are since then targeted by the international community in general and the U.S. and the U.K. in particular. Air strikes and Special Forces operations have since then be the name of the game in an attempt to destroy the Taliban and the Al Qaeda organization.

The first targets could be reached with little difficulty, the infra structure of the Taliban could be destroyed and some units of the Taliban could be hit but the fighting power on the short term is still more or less intact. The Special Forces raids could create some instability and hit the Taliban but all these actions is anything far away from forcing the Taliban into a defeat.

The operations in Afghanistan will therefore continue as before but with the air strikes changing from the infra structure to Taliban combat units and the front line with the Northern Alliance. The number of targets like infra structure, barracks and headquarters will become rare in Afghanistan. Special Forces will also continue to operate inside Afghanistan and operate as reconnaissance, forward air control and with hit and run operations. And as long as the Special Forces teams are not directly landed into a Taliban unit the number of casualties will remain controllable or acceptable. If casualties can be acceptable.

The esptablishment of camps in Aghanistan to support the operations in the country is a good idea out of a logistic view and to help in an emergency but dangerous as it presents a clear target for the Taliban. Even a camp in the north of the country, in alliance held territory, will present a magnet to all suicide bombers in the country.

The best strategy in Afghanistan is to remain on distance and attack with air strikes and Special Forces operations where and when you please as this will hurt the Taliban the most, they will destabilize the Taliban. The Taliban, the enemy, can be hit and the losses and costs on the own side can be limited. The air strikes are defeating any larger opposition and concentrations of Taliban forces and are like some kind artillery for the Northern Alliance and the Special Forces operating in Afghanistan. The Special Forces operations are the best way to meet the small units of the Taliban without giving the Taliban the advantage of using their geographic knowledge of the country side. The fast in and out operations are like some kind of guerilla war against the Taliban. The Taliban can be ambushed and severely limited in their movement. This kind of warfare is exactly the same what the Afghan resistance did to the armoured dominated Soviet occupation forces from 1980 to 1988 but now the Taliban is attacked without giving a change to fight.

The Northern Alliance can in the same time keep the pressure on the Taliban and conquer some terrain they had lost in previous campaigns against the Taliban. A defeat of the Taliban by the Northern Alliance is at the moment not possible for the Northern Alliance as they are to weak and fragmented to make a big impact on the short term.

The strength of the Taliban is thereby still uncertain as the knowledge about the fighting power, the capabilities and numbers, of the Taliban are not exactly known and the effects of the air strikes are unpredictable. The structure of the Taliban forces, mostly light units, armed with assault rifles, grenade/AT launchers, some artillery and even lesser armored vehicles, makes them very mobile and the effectiveness of air strikes lower than desired. The fighting power of the Taliban should not be underestimated as they remain good fighters in a head on engagement, they have the stamina and the will to fight on if they want. Afghan fighters are battle hardened and willing to take losses, running away is not their game. But the Aghan fighters, or better their leaders can be persuaded to change their minds, e.g. change sides.

The operations in Afghanistan are because of the above mentioned factors a long term affair unless, unexpectedly, the leadership of the Taliban can be eliminated and/or an increasing number of the Taliban forces walk over to the other side. Something not uncommon in Afghan politics that the warlords change sides if it is beneficial for their group or clan.

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October 2001

October 2001

October 2001

Terrorism, consequences and implications

Terrorism

Terrorism has been around since many years, everytime a non-state group, entity, with a political background attacked, this might be government buildings, officials, forces or even civilians, the government talked about terrorism. This criminalised the group which could be described tomorrow as rebels, next week as freedom fighters and next month as a friendly head of state.

Terrorism and terrorists are relative descriptions depending on time and situation what it is. Terrorism can be in some cases legitimate resistance against a suppressive and illegitimate government. Otherwise, the resistance movements against the German occupation in Europe from 1940 until 1945 were also terrorists organizations. And more recently, the Kosovo Liberation Army was in the eyes of Milosevic just a terrorist organization. So the terrorist to the one might be a freedom fighter for the other.

This should give some insight to the words terrorism and terrorists, it are words with many explanations. It should be evaluted every time, if it is terrorism and if it is valid to others too. It is therefore preferred to call the evil with the name instead of something ill defined as terrorism. The use of the word terrorism is acceptable if describing an unacceptable act but if it is to be prosecuted or punished it should be clear who is the target.

Acts of terrorism are usually bloody acts which cause very often many victims and even bigger economical damage. The terrorists act out of an idea of bad treatment and this is in the view of the terrorists the only way to get the attention and change the according to the terrorists wrong or bad situation.

Terrorism is therefore a difficult concept, the cause might be fraud and acts of terrorism can easily get out of control, to many casualties and no connection between target and cause. If this happens terrorism deteriorates to murder.

The attack on the World Trade Center, the Twin Towers, was such an act of murder. The connection between target and cause is non-existent. It was aimed at destroying a symbol of the United States. The WTC represented the economical system of the U.S. but it was only an office building. With many people who had no connection to the politics of the U.S. This act is therefore best described as a criminal act, mass murder, done by a criminal organization.

There are just a few people and/or organizations capable and with the motive to commit such an act. Osama Bin Laden and the Al Qaeda organization is the most likely suspect.

The attack on the WTC was aimed to enrage the U.S. and subsequently to seduce the U.S. government to a reaction which would rally the muslim world behind the causes of the suspected perpetrator Osama Bin Laden. The objectives of Bin Laden are to eliminate the western influence and presence in the Arab / muslim world and protect the muslims all over the world from the infidels. A clash of civilizations is planned by Bin Laden to, in the end, create a muslim world.

The actions of Bin Laden and his organisation Al Qaeda, the base, had mostly nothing to do with the Islam or the protection of the islam. It is and was aimed at the destabilization of the world and is against the peace. The objective of Bin Laden is to create a struggle between the islamic world and the west, which they see as the biggest evil in the world and needs to be eliminated to protect the islamic faith.

Bin Laden and its followers are only a small militant and extreme fraction which calls itself islamic and pure but violates many islamic rules and traditions. If it proves to be true that Bin Laden and the Al Qaeda are responsible for the attack on the Twin Towers of the WTC complex then they would have crossed all lines of political and military opposition and even human conduct, even in times of conflict. They would have place themselve outside any legitimacy and on the same level as other mass murderers in the history of mankind.

The day the world changed

Tuesday, 11 September 2001, will be remembered as the day history took a new direction, as if the new milennium started that day. The near simultaneous attack on the Twin Towers of the WTC and on the Pentagon with hijacked airliners started a new dimension of terrorism. No high tech attack but simple hijacked airliners used as Tomahawk missiles. Effective and deadly.

This act will change the perception of security in the U.S., changing ways of doing things, calling out a national emergency and the U.S. will be looking for protection and security which never can be reached. It is an illusion to find a method against terrorism, especially this kind of terrorism, by physical methods. It will need an advanced and intelligent approach to eliminate this kind of acts or for protection.

All increased security attempts as increased control and privileges for the law enforcement institutions will only limit the freedom, liberties and way of living which are meant to be protected. Those values which are supposed to be so much better than what the perpetrators claim and are willing to enforce. If those values are limited in name of security the perpetrators would gain a success in the end. Not to speak of the economic costs of the increased security measures and the especially the continuation of the feelings of insecurity will destroy all the trust in the market and economy.

The question who committed this atrocious act will be not that difficult to answer. Only a few organizations are able to conduct an operation like the one committed on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon. It will need intelligence capability, funds to finance a long term operation and suicide candidates with some experience in flying an aircraft and which have the basic skills of handling Boeing 757 and 767 aircraft. And above all, the motivation to conduct such an act which would invite the retaliation of the U.S.A. The reaction of the U.S. would be as fast as possible and without any remorse. No country or political organization would be that foolish as the costs would be simply to high. Only a determined organization without any great alliances to established countries or organizations would be able to commit such an act.

The only person who fits to this description is Osama Bin Laden and his Al Qaeda organization. It fits in the policy of Bin Laden to attack the U.S.A. to create a situation in which some kind of clash of civilizations would occur. The Islamic world vs the western world. In this situation he would most likely get the support of many impoverished or suppressed muslims in large parts of the world and become some kind of hero or martyrer if he would be killed. He will not get a majority but the loudest supporters will support Bin Laden. And in any case many will out of a feeling of humiliation and disrespect by the west and even if they do not agree with it they understand the motives of the attack.

Even as it will be clear that Bin Laden is behind the attack, it will be difficult to proof that Bin Laden is responsible for the attack as there will be no written order to commit the act. The burden of proof is more difficult because of the structure of the Bin Laden’s organization, Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is essentially a small organization with many alliances, relations, with many other groups. It is more like a network, a web of groups with the same goals and way of thinking and acting. And all have a cell structure in which only a small number of persons know people of other groups. Al Qaeda is essentially only responsible for intelligence, financing, training and probably some command and communication functions. They are a support group which does not commit any or little operations of their own. The command function is very vague and could probably more look like a consultancy function with some leverage. But one should always remind that the word of a man of the standing of Bin Laden means something and can cause a lot, his words are very important and the majority of the people in his surrounding obey to his words. Not to speak of the support Bin Laden is able to give to other groups. This is all together is very convincing for other groups to follow the leadership of Bin Laden.

The attack on the U.S.A.

Tuesday, the 11th September 2001, started as every other day in New York city. The day would however change the world. Four aircraft, 2 Boeing 757 and 2 Boeing 767, were hijacked. The hijackers took over control of the airplanes with knives and the threat of a bomb. They took over the pilots seat and changed the direction of the aircraft towards NYC and Washington DC.

Two aircraft with a 15 minutes break rammed the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center, one slammed into the Pentagon and one crashed in the countryside. The passengers in the last plane staged a counter attack and the plane crashed, thereby saving the U.S.A. from another disaster. The likely targets were the White House or the Capitol.

All targets were highly symbolic targets of American prowess. The Twin Towers symbolised the capitalistic free trade system and the Pentagon the all mighty military power of the U.S.A. It represented everything Bin Laden and its followers despised. It was a kind of revenge, we can hurt, humiliate, the U.S. and it will get Bin Laden the admiration and support from many muslims in the world.

The attack however unified the U.S.A. in its demand for retribution, a war against terror. The U.S.A.received the support from all over the world in the fight against terror. Only many countries will have a second thought with their support and expect to receive support in the elimination of their terrorists in their home countries.

Consequences

A terrorist attack like the one on the Twin Towers is because of its many victims, the negative effects on the economy and while it is viewed as a criminal act and not a political act will have serious consequences for the group who did it and anyone who would support such a group. It will demand a hard and if possible fast answer from the U.S.A.

The first reaction of the U.S.A. was to secure the home land by grounding all flights and increasing the security measurements around the country at important buildings and installations. These actions feezed the U.S. economy and public life.

Many other pro security measurements are studied at the moment, like the introduction of ID-cards, more rights for the law enforcements agencies to tap and follow and hold people, more intruding laws into the private life of people and the most obvious, increased security checks at airports, more police at the airports and air-marshals in the planes to counter the chance on an attack. All these measurements are however only delivering a phony-security, it increases the feeling of security but will not increase the security of the people and/or nation. It will on the contrary limit the freedom and liberties of the people, exactly that which needed to be protected from the suppression and terror of the Bin Laden’s of the world.

For example air marshals will give a bigger sense of security but the problem is if the terrorists could get aboard it is already to late. A shoot out aboard high in the sky could puncture the aircraft the consequences of that would be that the plane would most likely crash. Distance control of aircraft is equally dangerous as if the control system would be under control of terrorists it would be come even more dangerous. Tighter security, more laws, would only limit the freedom of the people without any higher chance of capturing terrorists as they operate undercover in small groups mostly doing nothing illegal until the big hit and they are able to get what they want on the black market.

The intelligence and law enforcement agencies are in te mean time busy to build a case against the involvement of Osama Bin Laden in the attack of 11 September 2001. A political offensive rallied the world behind the U.S.A. in the fight against terrorism. Afghanistan which is suspected of supporting Bin Laden has been targeted by political isolation, even long time supporters like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have withdrawn the support and recognition for the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The mass support of a lot of Arabs in the fight against the west did not materialize as all sided with the U.S.A. as the governments decided that would be best. Even if parts of countries with a large number of islamic people thought different, especially the poor without any hope promoted the fight against the west.

The military answer will come later as enough forces have been deployed to the most advantageous points and if the targets are clearly presented. The first target will most likely be found in Afghanistan, or better the Taliban controlled part, as they are protecting Bin Laden. If the Taliban will not accept the U.S. demands, including the hand over of Bin Laden, the end of support to terrorism and the right to control the training camps, something they never be able to do, they will be attacked at some time. The U.S. will not let the Taliban get away with their support to Bin Laden.

The military answer will not include an invasion, an army deployment, in Afghanistan but only precision bombardements of B 2, B 52, F15E, F16C/D and F/A 18C bombers and fighter bombers and ofcourse Tomahawk guided missiles on Taliban institutions and buildings, military infra structure and training camps. And the U.S. will use special forces to raid suspected places and areas. Forces like the Green Barets, Delta Force, Seals, Rangers and probably the British SAS will be involved in those operations.

Places which might be attacked are the airbases; Kabul international, Kandahar, Shindand, Herat, Mazar and Kunduz. The larger ground force bases as Qargah and Rishkor on the outskirts of Kabul and the former 18th Divivsion base at Deh Dadi outside Mazar. These bases have been used by Arab and foreign combatants but will now be most likely deserted. Smaller bases and frontline positions can also be attacked with the help of the Northern Alliance which is combating the Taliban.

So the only kind of operations in Afghanistan will be a fast in and fast out strategy and hit and run tactics. Creating maximum damage on the enemy without becoming a target itself.

The U.S.A. will not make the same mistake as the Russians did in their Afghanistan adventure. They will not enter with large military forces to try to hold and change the country. They will be invisible and only the results of their actions will be visible.

Fighting Terrorism

This strategy will not deliver immediate tangible results and it will take time before the cell structure can be touched and the first successes can be achieved. The fundamentalistic islamic organizations will be in the mean time be able to strike back against targets in the west.

The U.S. operations in Afghanistan are just a first step in a long process. And it will take more than military and law enforcement operations, or even political co-operation. It will take a policy, economically and socially, to support the islamic countries who have large groups of poor people without any perspectives and/or people living in refugee camps. As long as these bad situations exist people like Bin Laden find a fertile ground for their extremist ideas, get the attention and receive as much support as they want.

The world community can do its part to make terrorrist have a bad time. This will have to do with co-operation and ofcourse limiting the freedom of terrorists in the world. Intelligence should be shared, an active human intelligence network should be set up and law enforcements should co-operate with less bureaucratic hurdles. The co-operation between the intelligence communities will be difficult as they guard their knowledge very carefully. It is their working capital and only an equal exchange of information will work and not a one way street. A one way street should be avoided at any time as this would be regarded as one country would benefit mostly from the co-operation and destroying any chance of combatting terrorism effectively.

The international community should take two other measures as soon as possible. Terrorist organizations should not be able to work out of a country and most importantly the financial structure of terrorist groups should be eliminated. If they can not fund their work they can not operate properly and are more likely to make mistakes. Even as terrorism is a relatively cheap way to fight a war it still requires capital to buy weapons, train the people, commit terrorist acts, propagate the goals and ofcourse pay for the living of the staff and operatives.

The majority of the actions against terrorism can be implemented very quickly, it will only need the will of the governments to do it. It will not need new extended laws limiting the rights and liberties of the people. It also does not need the increased security measures introduced after the Twin Towers atrocity. It will only need the will to execute existing laws, co-operation and better intelligence.

And to finally defeat islamic terrorism of the Bin Laden kind on the medium to long term, you firstly need to support the people without future and in refugee camps in the world. As this is where terrorism will grow fast and easy. Partly the cause but certainly the support base. And secondly, causes like the continuing Middle East conflict between Israel and the Palestinians and the unfair treatment of people in the Middle East need to be ended. This will subsequently limit the involvement of the west in the Middle East and at the same time one of the grievances of the muslim population.

 

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