Tagarchief: defence forces

August 1999

August 1999

August 1999

German defence revisited

German’s road to change

Germany has expercienced a number of difficulties in recent times. The reunification, the higher taxes, the lagging economy in Germany and in east Germany in particular and the economic crisis in Asia, Russia and to a lesser extent South America have created a set of economical problems which have not find a solution.

The CDU-CSU government of the long served Bundeskanzler dr. Helmut Kohl has, because of the economic problems, been elected out of office by the social-democratic – greens coalition of Gerhard Schroder. The economic policy and proposals of the opponents were not really different but the new elan of the social-democrats proved to be more convincing than the CDU-CSU appearance.

The policy which should bring some improvement to the economy is about stimulating the economy by an attempt to support and encourage new industries and to make the socal-economic fabric more flexible. Both are however to little and to late. And by limiting government expenses by cutting costs by several departments. The already badly hit defence budget, which have already been cut in half since the reunification, should deliver another 3 billion DM in cuts.

German’s defence posture is already undermined and hardly prepared to do its job. The question is now are further cuts possible without any change, qualitative and quantitative, of the defence forces structure? And is it possible with lesser resources to fulfil the commitments which have been accepted by the government like the contributions towards SFOR and KFOR beside the protection of Germany?

Can and/or should the German defence forces go on in the same structure with the same tasks at an even lower defence budget or are dramatic changes necessary to meet the demands of the government and the society

Security in and defence tasks of Germany

The security perception of Germany has experienced a large change to the good as the cold war had ended and a wave of democracy ran through the world. This feeling of optimism, peace and progress did not last for very long as reality returned to the heads of state and later to the people that there are still some not so pleasant people around.

The geo-strategic situation improved as the political-ideological contradiction between the east and the west disappeared. The threat out of the former Soviet Union disappeared and subsequently it became even less dangerous because of the economic problems in Russia and in most of the other new countries of the former Soviet Union.

Instead of the Soviet menace many new nationalistic-religious problems emerged which did and do not pose a same kind of threat. One large and more or less predictable danger was replaced by several small ones which are unpredictable and difficult to control but none of them is posing a direct threat to the security of Germany or for Europe for that matter. The new countries in the territory of the former Soviet Union, the Balkan, the Middle East and muslim fundamentalistic organisations can not become a dangerous threat in the coming decade. They themselves could be a threat to eachother but very unlikely outside their area. They simply will not have the abilities on the short term to become dangerous.

The threat is indirect as refugees, economic problems and an ethical component could eventually undermine European society. The defence forces of Germany and the other European, NATO, countries do not face a conventional threat to their security. The threat will be indirect with possibly some terrorist activities but even these will be less likely as most terrorist organisations will loose their state sponsors.

There will be also no direct threats to Germany. The German defence forces will however be stretched to the limit with the participation in UN peace keeping and enforcing operations and occasional relief operations.

The peace keeping and enforcing operations will be most likely limited to Europe and possibly, if the Israeli government would issue the request, a peace keeping operation on the Golan heights. All other UN operations around the world which need the support of the defence forces will not receive support from Germany and essentially from the whole of Europe. As the majority of European nations consider Africa and Asia the responsibility of the regional organisations like the OAU and ARF. There are exceptions possible in some situations but the current trend is focused on Europe.

The relief operations after for example a natural disaster will on the other hand continue to receive support from Germany, e.g. the transport capability from the defence forces.

Concluding, Europe have become, with the exception of the Balkans and especially the territory of former Yugoslavia, saver then ever before. The further integration of Europe and continued active involvement in organisations like the NATO will keep the situation stable for at least the next decade. As Europe’s situation is improving all possible opponents, for example an emerged Russia or a possible alliance of Islam fundamentalistic north African states, will in this same time span not be able to become a major threat to Europe.

A new defence structure

The German defence forces are because of the consecutive cuts in the defence budget and the increased demands to participate in UN peace keeping / enforcing operations like SFOR and KFOR stretched to the limits of their abilities. The budget cuts and the changed security environment demands a change of the forces structure. The absence of a real threat gives Germany the opportunity to change this structure.

The German political leadership, the government and the opposition, is fully aware of the problems which have hit the defence ministry. It is necessary to make some decisions but the former and current government prefer to wait and hope time will bring a solution. The Wehrstrukturkommission, defence structure committee, which have been initiated by the defence minister Rudolf Scharping is a same kind of delay mechanism. The committee should look at the current situation and put forward some new ideas, proposals, to solve the crisis like situation. The committee will use a lot of time and at the end will, most likely, come with some half hearthed proposals aimed at maintaining the status quo.

The situation demands some decisions of the government. The abilities of the defence forces will be downgraded if the current trend of cuts and increased reponsibilities continue. Even if further cuts could be avoided it would be extremely difficult to upheld the fighting power of the German armed forces at the current level as a 5 to 10 percent increase of the defence expenditures wil be necessary to maintain a modern updated armed forces.

A rethinking of the position and the structure of the armed forces in Germany is necessary. The current structure of conscription, main defence forces and crisis reaction forces will not be able to live up the expectancies and demands of the government and society. The conscription system will get unfair if the number of forces are decreased and conscripts can not be forced to serve abroad on UN missions. And the division in main and crisis reaction forces will create a two class army with state of the art equipment and motivated soldiers in the crisis reaction forces and outdated equipment and more or less dissatisfied people in the main defence forces.

It will not be enough to simply scrap some barracks, brigades, units, wings, squadrons or ships or eliminate some tasks to achieve a reduction and meet the financial targets set out by the finance ministry. This will degrade and even further overstretch the armed forces.

A new and better approach is necessary to keep the forces up to date and capable of fulfilling the tasks they are expected to do in the current defence budget or at a slightly lower budget.

An option for the defence forces

The new approach is based on an armed forces structure which is modern and capable to the defend the interests of the country and participate in several UN operations. This demands up to date equipment, enough forces, men, to do the job and additional resources, equipment and reserves, to participate on every eventuality.

The German armed forces should be based on a professional base of officers, NCO’s and soldiers on medium to long term contracts. In this structure the conscription will be abolished and replaced by a system of reserve forces and possibly a kind of militia structure.

The conscription system is a somewhat outdated idea with the goal to have a large force and in German’s case to involve the society in the armed forces. The reduction in manpower and the shortening of the time served as a conscript will make the number who actually fulfil their conscription lower and more unfair as the number who do not need to serve will get higher. Only on the medium to long term this inequality will change as the demographics lowers the number of conscription eligible to a fairer number.

The number of conscious objectors have been growing in the last decade and this made the equation between the people who have to do their service and the ones who were excluded artificially lower and more bearable and it delivered a large pool for the civil service, Zivil Dienst, who do and did their service instead of being in the armed forces supporting the Red Cross, homes for the elderly, hospitals and so on.

If the conscription would be abolished the civil service will be the most hit as the people working here will be difficult if not impossible to replace. To make up this shortfall the militia system, as we propose, could be the savour of this much needed service for the society and even maintain the so much appreciated close relations with the society.

The new armed forces would also consist of a core of full time professional military, an active reserve force and a none to little active militia force. The armed forces could remain in this structure up to date in equipment, have enough resources to do their job properly and the defence budget could remain on the current level or even accept a small cut and maintain their fighting power which is impossible in the current situation.

The professional armed forces

The military core of the armed forces would consist out of a professional force who are responsible for the protection of Germany’s interests and are the first to call for. They will be the specialists, well armed, trained and all on the same advanced level. Prepared for conventional warfare, large scale multi-national operations, emergencies and for UN operations.

Beside the normal military functions a professional armed forces would have to do, a small part of the professional forces will be spread around the country in trainingcentres to train the militia force. The courses will be held in cycles of about three months in daytime courses with a couple of exercises to educate the militia force the basics of the military trade, social values and to integrate the armed forces in the society.

You would need a professional force of around 260.000 men to fulfil the same tasks as is now being done by the Bundeswehr. Around 160.000 for the army, 70.000-72.000 for the air force and 28.000 for the navy.

With this number of personnel the armed forces could fulfil all the tasks they do now. Especially the air force and navy will benefit from this change as their capabilities will improve through the professionalisation. The reserve forces of the air force and navy will be mainly support and security units beside a small number of civilian pilots, technicians and shipcrew.

The army will need to change the most. The current structure of forces will remain more or less the same and they will be able to continue to participate in the current multi-national units /corps system. The only difference will be that one brigade of an armoured or mechanized division, except some cadre forces, and some support units will be manned by reserve forces. The airborne division will become an all professional unit. The use of reservists in combat units will have a minimal effect on the fighting capabilities of the army as an active reserve force can be brought up to standard within a month. And as the deployment of heavy army units will take longer as airborne units, naval forces and especially air force units and the warning times have increased the use of reserve forces will not degrade the army.

The reserve forces

The professional armed forces would need to be supported by an active reserve force. Where ever possible civilian skills should be used in a reserve force to even further increase the professionalability of the reserve forces. The reserve forces should support the professional forces.

The reserve forces will consist out of former professional soldiers, NCO’s and officers and well motivated and interested civilians who like to serve the country. Beside the interest of being a part time military man or woman a small financial compensation an proper insurance arrangements should be available.

The reserve forces would get an additional training, only if they have not been part of the professional forces, of about three months beside the ground skills learned in the militia training and the reservists will be educated and trained in for example 3 evenings a month, 6 saturdays a year, 4 weekends a year and one exercise of a week in a year. With this training schedule they would be trained at an acceptable level and capable to operate advanced equipment and in large scale operations in and with support of the professional forces.

As an additional attraction and to keep the reserve forces sharp they could be available for UN operations and emergencies. Every four years they could be send on a UN operation for three to six months. This would be benificial to their military development as it is an very good opportunity to train and learn operating in multi-national environment under real circumstances. And it should be possible without to much problems for their normal civilian lives.

The reserve forces should total about 90.000 men; 60.000 for the army, 25.000 for the air force and 5.000 for the navy. With this number of additional forces the armed forces are capable to fulfil all missions demanded. As there will be at least 5.600 reservist available for UN operations at all times without putting to much pressure on the reserve force. A combined force of professsionals and reservists will allow Germany the use its capabilities and resources most advantageous in general and in UN operations.

The militia

A militia force is offering the best way, even before a conscription army, in creating an armed forces close to the society. The militia is the beginning of all defence, especially in the defence of the nation, as they will form the back bone and the greatest possible nuisance to any invader. Even if the conventional value of a militia force is limited the attritional and psychological value is even larger. As nearly all able people in the society will be part of a militia army and therefore more likely to be committed to the country and more averse against an invasion.

The militia force, or kind of as the education and training course will be minimized to the absolute minimum, will also allow the possibility to save the Zivildienst, civil service. As all able young people, male and female, will join the militia after high school / college for three months there will be a very large number people of which a large number do not like to do their military service they have the alternative to join the Zivildienst.

An additional advantage of the militia system will be that there will be the need for a large number of trainingcentres. These will be spread geographically around the country so that the militia training can be a daytime course and no large barrack complexes are necessary. There only will be a need for a number of classrooms, a gunrange and a small exercise area. All states of Germany will be incooperated in this plan so a fair sharing of work is possible. Finally those small complexes will be needed by the military for 6 to 9 months of the year the remaining 3 to 6 months can be used to give additional education, business focussed, to the unemployed and young people who do not go to any further education and do not have a Lehrstelle, jobtraining place, at a company.

The education of the militia force will be done by the professional armed forces. Hereby they can remain in contact with the society and attract people to become a professional soldier or to become a member of the reserve forces.

The militia training course should be as short as possible but long enough to learn the basic skills of a soldier. Beside the formal education about the military, organisation, hierarchy, weapon handling, small unit tactics, etc. attention should be paid to citizenship, democracy, social values and mutual respect. The militia course should not be about to much drill and learning by gaming should be very important.

In about three months it should be possible to learn the above mentioned basic skills. They will not be able to operate advanced weapon systems but the most common infantry weapons, light mortars, light AT missiles and Stinger type AA missiles should be achieveable within this time span. Large scale combined arms operations will also not be possible to learn and to train but security, harassing and small unit operations and some cooperation with armoured forces are possible. The same will be true in support operations, it will not be possible to operate solely in large and multi-national groups but they will be able to support small units and in support beside other professional and reserve forces in larger commands if the situation is critical.

After the militia training people will know more about the military, the necessity of defence and the country. If they are interested they can join the reserve forces or another option would be an active militia role with weekly or monthly education / training days to improve their skills and proficiency with the equipment they have been trained with. This will be easily attainable because of the spare time left over in the militia trainingcentres.

The professional armed forces, reserve forces, active militia and militia training model will deliver Germany and its people the best of all worlds. They will get a skilled and well prepared and armed defence force within the current budget. A large, good trained and motivated reserve force which can be used when deemed necessary. A large pool of active militia members and an even larger pool of people which have had some military training which can be quickly recalled in a national emergency. And most important of all it leaves the people with choices, like it should be in a democracy. Join the militia training or support your country in the Zivildienst. Have the opportunity to learn something in the militia about the military and about a democratic country and its important values. And after the militia service or better training you are free to go on with your private live or stay somehow involved in the security of your country. And all this in three to four months which is not a long time and will certainly not have a large impact on somebody’s live. Especially because the training will be in everybody’s neighbourhood and at normal working hours so no long travelling and a long time from home. It is more, and should be, like a kind of adventure holiday where you can learn something.

Standaard
April 1998, I

April 1998, I

April 1998, I

The road towards European Defence integration – A note on India

The road towards European Defence integration

Europe, the continent is moving to further integration. The European Union starts to unify its monetary policies under the aegis of the single European currency. This will automatically lead to a more or less identical fiscal policy in Europe. The single currency is a way towards political integration through the backdoor. The countries who are now outside the single currency area will be forced to become members after a couple of years. Otherways they will loose to much on the trade with other single market countries.

The single currency, the Euro, will promote the internal trade in the Union. It will not eliminate the difficulties in Europe with unemployment and the rising costs of the social wellfare state. The benefits of the single currency will not be visible on the short term but on the medium and long term it will bring substantial improvements to the employment figures and the fiscal deficits of all member states.

The single currency is a step towards improved co-operation in Europe. Till now it was largely aimed at economic goals but the rules of the single currency will force them to increase the co-operation to fiscal and political fields.

The integrating process will be re-inforced by the continuing globalisation of all aspects in the world. Problems will become ever more difficult to solve on national level. This requires solutions on a higher, greater level, the European Union. The democratic nature of such an Union can be maintained by elections on European level, national/regional level and county level. To protect the people even more there could be an European constitution which is protected by an independent court system. This way there can be no violations of the rights of the people, and they are the ones which are reason for the existence of the European Union and the main beneficiaries of the Union

At the same time the political leaders are pursuing another field of co-operation. The diversified and often small defence industries of Europe should move together through a carefull integration process to compete on the world market against the large U.S. corporations like Lockeed-Martin and Boeing. Another impetus to integrate is the creation of a common defence market in Europe.

The common defence market in Europe will deliver the companies the necessary scale to be competitive in business. But the companies should be managed with great care to avoid any nationalistic sentiments. These would destroy any further co-operation in this field. And finally the member states should abolish article 223 of the treaty of Rome. This article exempts the defence sector from the rules of free trade. Such an article is a joke in a community like the European Union.

The next step would be a move towards an unified foreign and defence policy. A clear and fully implemented foreign and defence policy will be to much asked in the coming years but a first step towards increased co-operation could be one of the possibilities. The decision taking could be done on national level with some negotiations with the member states. In most cases the differences between European countries are not that large and a compromise is always around the corner. The executive could then be transfered to an E.U. organisation.

For example, an integration of the defence forces in Europe will increase the capabilities of the defence forces at the same or even lesser costs. This leaves all participating countries the same capabilities at their disposal as they had before the integration. The changes are only of an organisational and traditional nature. As an additional benefit, the common defence market/industry will be much easier to achieve.

European forces versus U.S. forces

The U.S.A. possess without doubt relatively the largest and best military forces in the world. There are other countries who have more men in their forces but they do not have the superior equipment and training of the U.S. forces. Or there are countries with more or less equal equipment and training but who do not have the numbers to make an impact.

An example of the last are the several European armed forces who have some very fine equipment and training but are to small in numbers and to little in scale. With scale we mean that France and the U.K. do possess aircraft carriers and amphibious capability but they are no comparison with the Nimitz class aircraft carriers and the Marine Corps, respectivily.

The armed forces of the member states of the European Union are to fragmented to make an impact. They are only usefull in a major conflict if they cooperate with eachother. And even then they will need the support of the U.S.A. The individual European forces are large enough to be used in low intensity and/or small conflicts with third world countries but are incompetent in a medium to large scale conflict.

Where as the U.S. military is capable to operate globally, the European countries, even when they co-operate, are only able to be effective in a medium scale regional conflict at best.

If we compare the capabilities and the financial side of the U.S. forces and the combined European forces the result is awfull. Europe should be, considered the defence budget of approx. $150 B. of the European Union countries, at least half as capable as the U.S.A. with approx. $ 250 B. to spend. But at best they are just as third as capable.

In the power projection sector Europe could have 6 full size aircraft carriers instead of the 5 light carriers of the U.K., Italy and Spain and the one or two medium French carriers. The same is valid for the the amphibious forces. The capabilities of Europe are to limited to become a major threat. They have only 10 LPH/LPD type carriers and a 20 + LST/LSD type carriers. The majority of the ships are old and small to modern standards and are thereby in need of replacement. Only a few are or are going to be replaced. And finally the European navies possess a lot of frigates, corvettes and FAC’s. The fleet should be better balanced with a few more destroyers, lesser but more capable frigates, more corvettes and lesser FAC’s and patrol boats.

The air forces air in a better shape considered a large part of the equipment. This is of the same category as the USAF’s equipment. See the performance of the Mirage 2000-5, the Tornado and the future Eurofighter. The air forces have two major problems, first the lack of unity, no individual country is strong enough to go for it alone. Regular exercises with eachother improve co-operation but are not enough to really create an united force with the impact of the USAF. And second, there is a shortage of long range wide body transport aircraft, which makes world wide operations impossible.

The land forces of Europe are in better shape but they lack the structure and organisation advantages of the U.S.A. This leads to an unacceptable overhead and consequently to lesser people on the fighting line. A part of their equipment is outdated, they are in need of more modern MBT’s, AFV’s, SP artilley systems and battle helicopters, and finally the organisation structure has to be adjusted towards the demands of information warfare.

Essentially, he European armed forces do have more soldiers under arms then the U.S.A. but the utilization is inferior in Europe. This means that the European side has to improve itself. The integration, reorganisation and streamlining of the European forces will deliver an improvement in capabilities of at least 20 % at the same costs.

An approach to improvement

The armed forces of Europe need an improvement in organinsation, equipment and efficacy. With this particular sensitive subject the approach should be comprehensive and with care not to offend the members of the Union.

There are shared interests for the existence of defence forces that make it possible to build an integrated defence force for Europe. These are more or less the same for all European countries. The job description of the defence forces could look like this. The main tasks of the defence forces in Europe are to protect the territory, people, lanes of communications and the interests/values of the members of the union.        There are a number of particuliar interests of nearly each country in the union. These also can be satisfied by the use of a common European defence organisation.

During the integration process every countries sovereignity, traditions and national sentiments should be considered. If we are aware of this we should take care that the members should hold an indirect control system over the defence forces and get a kind of drawing rights on a part of the forces if they are in need of them. The number of troops available to each member state should be depended on the input of resources of each country. This way they can protect their particuliar interests with the advantage of the knowledge that a massive group is supporting them, even when it is indirectly.

This is going to be a slow process of integration if it wants to succeed. There first has to be a poltical body with representatives of all participating countries to have the ultimate control and the budget authority. These can interact with the national parliaments and the E.U. commissions and parliament. Second, a kind of joint chiefs of staff, JCS, has to be created who are responsible for the day to day command and the military affairs in general. For example, the acquisition of equipment should be according to the military specifications which are specified by the JCS, e.g. the best available systems for the best price, to circumvent political motivated buys. If this structure is set up we can move on to start with new syllabi on the schools and academies to get the new professional military person in Europe. After the first courses and graduates we can start integrating and reorganizing the actual forces of each member into one organisation. The set up of the education system and the first steps to integrate the forces go hand in hand. This way there can be anticipated on any problems which may arise on the JCS integration masterplan.

The whole integration process will take a 10 + years to implement. This way national sentiments can be handled with care and new systems acquired at better costs and integrated into a new more capable defence force.

Conclusion

The integration of the defence forces of the member states of the European Union would be a logical step on the way to an intergrated/united Europe. After the creation of the single market, the single currency, the growing influence of European institutions and directives and finally the birth of a common defence industry, it is now the right moment to integrate the defence forces.

The goverments have the responsibility towards the people to provide them with the best security available at reasonable costs. Therefore the integration of the defence industry and the defence forces will provide an improvement in capabilities, including global reach, and a better utilization of the available resources.

Only if there is a strong defence force which is worldwide deployable, Europe can play its role according to the position it has in the world, at least the economic world.

A note on India

India, the largest democracy in the world, is at the crossroads towards a new India or on the return to an archaic society. The elections did not created a clear winner but it reinforced the position of the fundamentalistic Hindus in India. The Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, has become the largest party. With the support of several, up to 17 regional parties and independent members of parliament, they could take over the government.

The coalition government will most probably not introduce the fundamentalistic BJP policies as promised before the elections. If they would implement the policies it will mean an intensification of the tensions in the region and most likely a devasting war between the several religions in India, conflict with Pakistan over the divided province of Kashmire, border quarrels with China about Tibet and the province Arunachal Pradesh in the North-East.

The diversified coalition government will most likely be occupied with the avoidance of internal differences in the coalition and solving the economical problems of India. The conflicts with Pakistan and China are of less pressing importance. The reconstruction of the temple at Ayoda might be important to the BJP but they are not willing to sacrifice the coalition government and risk the emergence of internal unrest / civil war because of the religious temple. The government will leave the Ayoda temple case to be solved in the future. A decision will be to costly to india and its government.

The policy of India

The policy of the coalition government under the leadership of the BJP will be aimed to stimulate the economy and bring it back to a growth figure of 7 – 8 % per annum and to stabilise the national currency, the rupee.

The Asian crisis did not really hurt India, the rupee only dropped a small 10 % last year. The tight and controlled currency policy and the protected market of India limited the devasting downfall which happened in other Asian countries.

The nationalistic BJP wants to promote the economy by supporting the agri-cultural sector, the majority of the Indians live on and from the land. This is therefore considered as an important element which should have an appropriate role in the economic growth. The countryside does not have the technology, financial resources and acreage to introduce dramatic improvements in the agri-cultural sector.

The government also want to support the economy by giving Indian companies space to grow, they want to protect the Indian companies against the competition of foreign companies. Thereby giving Indian companies a chance to adjust to and integrate in the world economy. This fits perfectly in the BJP view that multi-national companies have no place in India. According the BJP those companies only want to make money in India which will then leave the country. In the end it would bring no gains for India.

Foreign companies are only allowed to enter India for large infra-structural projects like airports, roads, harbours and energy/power plants. These expensive and long term projects forces foreign companies to become involved in India for a long time.

The lack of international investment could however limit the growth and will leave India out of the development of technology. The creation of a developed economy will become much more difficult, or even impossible, without the financial and technology support from abroad.

The new government will ride a dangerous path if they exclude the international community. It might be able to stimulate some extra growth on the short term. But a lasting 7 – 8 % growth per annum will be impossible without participating in the world economy.

The Indian government should evaluate their economic policy. The BJP’s policy of economic nationalism might look attractive and will be popular in the countryside but it will exclude India from the economic development and growth it wants to create. Closed societies have rarely shown impressive lasting growth and revolutionising technologies. You can have just one thing at a time. Closed and backward or open and advanced.

But the coalition partners will probably force the BJP to adjust their economic ideology. This would leave India on the road to a open society with a balanced economic growth. India has to continue the liberalising process wich was started by the former governments. The Asian crisis is setback in the region’s development but it is the right way to go.

Standaard