October 2001

Terrorism, consequences and implications

Terrorism

Terrorism has been around since many years, everytime a non-state group, entity, with a political background attacked, this might be government buildings, officials, forces or even civilians, the government talked about terrorism. This criminalised the group which could be described tomorrow as rebels, next week as freedom fighters and next month as a friendly head of state.

Terrorism and terrorists are relative descriptions depending on time and situation what it is. Terrorism can be in some cases legitimate resistance against a suppressive and illegitimate government. Otherwise, the resistance movements against the German occupation in Europe from 1940 until 1945 were also terrorists organizations. And more recently, the Kosovo Liberation Army was in the eyes of Milosevic just a terrorist organization. So the terrorist to the one might be a freedom fighter for the other.

This should give some insight to the words terrorism and terrorists, it are words with many explanations. It should be evaluted every time, if it is terrorism and if it is valid to others too. It is therefore preferred to call the evil with the name instead of something ill defined as terrorism. The use of the word terrorism is acceptable if describing an unacceptable act but if it is to be prosecuted or punished it should be clear who is the target.

Acts of terrorism are usually bloody acts which cause very often many victims and even bigger economical damage. The terrorists act out of an idea of bad treatment and this is in the view of the terrorists the only way to get the attention and change the according to the terrorists wrong or bad situation.

Terrorism is therefore a difficult concept, the cause might be fraud and acts of terrorism can easily get out of control, to many casualties and no connection between target and cause. If this happens terrorism deteriorates to murder.

The attack on the World Trade Center, the Twin Towers, was such an act of murder. The connection between target and cause is non-existent. It was aimed at destroying a symbol of the United States. The WTC represented the economical system of the U.S. but it was only an office building. With many people who had no connection to the politics of the U.S. This act is therefore best described as a criminal act, mass murder, done by a criminal organization.

There are just a few people and/or organizations capable and with the motive to commit such an act. Osama Bin Laden and the Al Qaeda organization is the most likely suspect.

The attack on the WTC was aimed to enrage the U.S. and subsequently to seduce the U.S. government to a reaction which would rally the muslim world behind the causes of the suspected perpetrator Osama Bin Laden. The objectives of Bin Laden are to eliminate the western influence and presence in the Arab / muslim world and protect the muslims all over the world from the infidels. A clash of civilizations is planned by Bin Laden to, in the end, create a muslim world.

The actions of Bin Laden and his organisation Al Qaeda, the base, had mostly nothing to do with the Islam or the protection of the islam. It is and was aimed at the destabilization of the world and is against the peace. The objective of Bin Laden is to create a struggle between the islamic world and the west, which they see as the biggest evil in the world and needs to be eliminated to protect the islamic faith.

Bin Laden and its followers are only a small militant and extreme fraction which calls itself islamic and pure but violates many islamic rules and traditions. If it proves to be true that Bin Laden and the Al Qaeda are responsible for the attack on the Twin Towers of the WTC complex then they would have crossed all lines of political and military opposition and even human conduct, even in times of conflict. They would have place themselve outside any legitimacy and on the same level as other mass murderers in the history of mankind.

The day the world changed

Tuesday, 11 September 2001, will be remembered as the day history took a new direction, as if the new milennium started that day. The near simultaneous attack on the Twin Towers of the WTC and on the Pentagon with hijacked airliners started a new dimension of terrorism. No high tech attack but simple hijacked airliners used as Tomahawk missiles. Effective and deadly.

This act will change the perception of security in the U.S., changing ways of doing things, calling out a national emergency and the U.S. will be looking for protection and security which never can be reached. It is an illusion to find a method against terrorism, especially this kind of terrorism, by physical methods. It will need an advanced and intelligent approach to eliminate this kind of acts or for protection.

All increased security attempts as increased control and privileges for the law enforcement institutions will only limit the freedom, liberties and way of living which are meant to be protected. Those values which are supposed to be so much better than what the perpetrators claim and are willing to enforce. If those values are limited in name of security the perpetrators would gain a success in the end. Not to speak of the economic costs of the increased security measures and the especially the continuation of the feelings of insecurity will destroy all the trust in the market and economy.

The question who committed this atrocious act will be not that difficult to answer. Only a few organizations are able to conduct an operation like the one committed on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon. It will need intelligence capability, funds to finance a long term operation and suicide candidates with some experience in flying an aircraft and which have the basic skills of handling Boeing 757 and 767 aircraft. And above all, the motivation to conduct such an act which would invite the retaliation of the U.S.A. The reaction of the U.S. would be as fast as possible and without any remorse. No country or political organization would be that foolish as the costs would be simply to high. Only a determined organization without any great alliances to established countries or organizations would be able to commit such an act.

The only person who fits to this description is Osama Bin Laden and his Al Qaeda organization. It fits in the policy of Bin Laden to attack the U.S.A. to create a situation in which some kind of clash of civilizations would occur. The Islamic world vs the western world. In this situation he would most likely get the support of many impoverished or suppressed muslims in large parts of the world and become some kind of hero or martyrer if he would be killed. He will not get a majority but the loudest supporters will support Bin Laden. And in any case many will out of a feeling of humiliation and disrespect by the west and even if they do not agree with it they understand the motives of the attack.

Even as it will be clear that Bin Laden is behind the attack, it will be difficult to proof that Bin Laden is responsible for the attack as there will be no written order to commit the act. The burden of proof is more difficult because of the structure of the Bin Laden’s organization, Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is essentially a small organization with many alliances, relations, with many other groups. It is more like a network, a web of groups with the same goals and way of thinking and acting. And all have a cell structure in which only a small number of persons know people of other groups. Al Qaeda is essentially only responsible for intelligence, financing, training and probably some command and communication functions. They are a support group which does not commit any or little operations of their own. The command function is very vague and could probably more look like a consultancy function with some leverage. But one should always remind that the word of a man of the standing of Bin Laden means something and can cause a lot, his words are very important and the majority of the people in his surrounding obey to his words. Not to speak of the support Bin Laden is able to give to other groups. This is all together is very convincing for other groups to follow the leadership of Bin Laden.

The attack on the U.S.A.

Tuesday, the 11^th September 2001, started as every other day in New York city. The day would however change the world. Four aircraft, 2 Boeing 757 and 2 Boeing 767, were hijacked. The hijackers took over control of the airplanes with knives and the threat of a bomb. They took over the pilots seat and changed the direction of the aircraft towards NYC and Washington DC.

Two aircraft with a 15 minutes break rammed the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center, one slammed into the Pentagon and one crashed in the countryside. The passengers in the last plane staged a counter attack and the plane crashed, thereby saving the U.S.A. from another disaster. The likely targets were the White House or the Capitol.

All targets were highly symbolic targets of American prowess. The Twin Towers symbolised the capitalistic free trade system and the Pentagon the all mighty military power of the U.S.A. It represented everything Bin Laden and its followers despised. It was a kind of revenge, we can hurt, humiliate, the U.S. and it will get Bin Laden the admiration and support from many muslims in the world.

The attack however unified the U.S.A. in its demand for retribution, a war against terror. The U.S.A.received the support from all over the world in the fight against terror. Only many countries will have a second thought with their support and expect to receive support in the elimination of their terrorists in their home countries.

Consequences

A terrorist attack like the one on the Twin Towers is because of its many victims, the negative effects on the economy and while it is viewed as a criminal act and not a political act will have serious consequences for the group who did it and anyone who would support such a group. It will demand a hard and if possible fast answer from the U.S.A.

The first reaction of the U.S.A. was to secure the home land by grounding all flights and increasing the security measurements around the country at important buildings and installations. These actions feezed the U.S. economy and public life.

Many other pro security measurements are studied at the moment, like the introduction of ID-cards, more rights for the law enforcements agencies to tap and follow and hold people, more intruding laws into the private life of people and the most obvious, increased security checks at airports, more police at the airports and air-marshals in the planes to counter the chance on an attack. All these measurements are however only delivering a phony-security, it increases the feeling of security but will not increase the security of the people and/or nation. It will on the contrary limit the freedom and liberties of the people, exactly that which needed to be protected from the suppression and terror of the Bin Laden’s of the world.

For example air marshals will give a bigger sense of security but the problem is if the terrorists could get aboard it is already to late. A shoot out aboard high in the sky could puncture the aircraft the consequences of that would be that the plane would most likely crash. Distance control of aircraft is equally dangerous as if the control system would be under control of terrorists it would be come even more dangerous. Tighter security, more laws, would only limit the freedom of the people without any higher chance of capturing terrorists as they operate undercover in small groups mostly doing nothing illegal until the big hit and they are able to get what they want on the black market.

The intelligence and law enforcement agencies are in te mean time busy to build a case against the involvement of Osama Bin Laden in the attack of 11 September 2001. A political offensive rallied the world behind the U.S.A. in the fight against terrorism. Afghanistan which is suspected of supporting Bin Laden has been targeted by political isolation, even long time supporters like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have withdrawn the support and recognition for the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The mass support of a lot of Arabs in the fight against the west did not materialize as all sided with the U.S.A. as the governments decided that would be best. Even if parts of countries with a large number of islamic people thought different, especially the poor without any hope promoted the fight against the west.

The military answer will come later as enough forces have been deployed to the most advantageous points and if the targets are clearly presented. The first target will most likely be found in Afghanistan, or better the Taliban controlled part, as they are protecting Bin Laden. If the Taliban will not accept the U.S. demands, including the hand over of Bin Laden, the end of support to terrorism and the right to control the training camps, something they never be able to do, they will be attacked at some time. The U.S. will not let the Taliban get away with their support to Bin Laden.

The military answer will not include an invasion, an army deployment, in Afghanistan but only precision bombardements of B 2, B 52, F15E, F16C/D and F/A 18C bombers and fighter bombers and ofcourse Tomahawk guided missiles on Taliban institutions and buildings, military infra structure and training camps. And the U.S. will use special forces to raid suspected places and areas. Forces like the Green Barets, Delta Force, Seals, Rangers and probably the British SAS will be involved in those operations.

Places which might be attacked are the airbases; Kabul international, Kandahar, Shindand, Herat, Mazar and Kunduz. The larger ground force bases as Qargah and Rishkor on the outskirts of Kabul and the former 18^th Divivsion base at Deh Dadi outside Mazar. These bases have been used by Arab and foreign combatants but will now be most likely deserted. Smaller bases and frontline positions can also be attacked with the help of the Northern Alliance which is combating the Taliban.

So the only kind of operations in Afghanistan will be a fast in and fast out strategy and hit and run tactics. Creating maximum damage on the enemy without becoming a target itself.

The U.S.A. will not make the same mistake as the Russians did in their Afghanistan adventure. They will not enter with large military forces to try to hold and change the country. They will be invisible and only the results of their actions will be visible.

Fighting Terrorism

This strategy will not deliver immediate tangible results and it will take time before the cell structure can be touched and the first successes can be achieved. The fundamentalistic islamic organizations will be in the mean time be able to strike back against targets in the west.

The U.S. operations in Afghanistan are just a first step in a long process. And it will take more than military and law enforcement operations, or even political co-operation. It will take a policy, economically and socially, to support the islamic countries who have large groups of poor people without any perspectives and/or people living in refugee camps. As long as these bad situations exist people like Bin Laden find a fertile ground for their extremist ideas, get the attention and receive as much support as they want.

The world community can do its part to make terrorrist have a bad time. This will have to do with co-operation and ofcourse limiting the freedom of terrorists in the world. Intelligence should be shared, an active human intelligence network should be set up and law enforcements should co-operate with less bureaucratic hurdles. The co-operation between the intelligence communities will be difficult as they guard their knowledge very carefully. It is their working capital and only an equal exchange of information will work and not a one way street. A one way street should be avoided at any time as this would be regarded as one country would benefit mostly from the co-operation and destroying any chance of combatting terrorism effectively.

The international community should take two other measures as soon as possible. Terrorist organizations should not be able to work out of a country and most importantly the financial structure of terrorist groups should be eliminated. If they can not fund their work they can not operate properly and are more likely to make mistakes. Even as terrorism is a relatively cheap way to fight a war it still requires capital to buy weapons, train the people, commit terrorist acts, propagate the goals and ofcourse pay for the living of the staff and operatives.

The majority of the actions against terrorism can be implemented very quickly, it will only need the will of the governments to do it. It will not need new extended laws limiting the rights and liberties of the people. It also does not need the increased security measures introduced after the Twin Towers atrocity. It will only need the will to execute existing laws, co-operation and better intelligence.

And to finally defeat islamic terrorism of the Bin Laden kind on the medium to long term, you firstly need to support the people without future and in refugee camps in the world. As this is where terrorism will grow fast and easy. Partly the cause but certainly the support base. And secondly, causes like the continuing Middle East conflict between Israel and the Palestinians and the unfair treatment of people in the Middle East need to be ended. This will subsequently limit the involvement of the west in the Middle East and at the same time one of the grievances of the muslim population.